MLB Player Prop Projections Today, Oct 21

CIN atLAD · 10:10 PM ET

Elly De La CruzCIN · at LAD · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

1.49

0.5

+0.99

+ WinOver 0.5 · -138+0.71uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 58.0%

Kyle TuckerLAD · vs CIN · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.55

0.5

+0.05

− LossUnder 0.5 · +155−1.00uat betPARX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 40.9% chance of zero hits. The recorded +155 price needs about 39% to break even.

Actual results

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: 39.2%

Alex FreelandCIN at LAD · Sep 9 · Final

0.43

0.5

−0.07

− LossUnder 0.5 · +120−1.00uat ESPN BET

Actual results

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: 45.5%

Tommy EdmanLAD · vs CIN · Sep 9 · Final

1.57

1.5

+0.07

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -155+0.65uat BetMGM

Why Under? Our model estimates a 63.0% chance of 1 or fewer total bases. The recorded -155 price needs about 61% to break even.

Actual results

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: 60.8%

Ke'Bryan HayesCIN · at LAD · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

0.65

0.5

+0.15

+ WinUnder 0.5 · -119+0.84uat ProphetX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 56.6% chance of zero total bases. The recorded -119 price needs about 54% to break even.

Actual results

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: 54.3%

Teoscar HernandezLAD · vs CIN · Sep 9 · Final

1.21

0.5

+0.71

Actual: 2 hits · Projection: 1.21Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 66.7%

Hector RodriguezCIN · at LAD · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

1.21

0.5

+0.71

Actual: 0 hits · Projection: 1.21Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 54.5%

Hunter FeducciaLAD · vs CIN · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.54

0.5

+0.04

Actual: 0 hits · Projection: 0.54Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 39.2%

Freddie FreemanLAD · vs CIN · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

1.44

1.5

−0.06

Did not play · Projection: 1.44Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 55.6%

CHC atMIL · 7:40 PM ET

Brice TurangMIL · vs CHC · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.96

0.5

+0.46

− LossOver 0.5 · -150−1.00uat Novig

Actual results

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: 60.0%

PIT atCWS · 7:40 PM ET

Andrew BenintendiCWS · vs PIT · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.74

0.5

+0.24

+ WinOver 0.5 · -132+0.74uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 56.9%

Munetaka MurakamiCWS · vs PIT · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.54

0.5

+0.04

− LossUnder 0.5 · +123−1.00uat betPARX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 47.8% chance of zero hits. The recorded +123 price needs about 45% to break even.

Actual results

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: 44.8%

Jacob GonzalezPIT · at CWS · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.52

0.5

+0.02

− LossUnder 0.5 · +115−1.00uat BetMGM

Why Under? Our model estimates a 48.3% chance of zero hits. The recorded +115 price needs about 47% to break even.

Actual results

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: 46.5%

Miguel VargasCWS · vs PIT · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

1.52

1.5

+0.02

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -129+0.78uat DraftKings

Why Under? Our model estimates a 58.2% chance of 1 or fewer total bases. The recorded -129 price needs about 56% to break even.

Actual results

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: 56.3%

ARI atKC · 7:40 PM ET

Nolan ArenadoARI · at KC · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.69

0.5

+0.19

− LossUnder 0.5 · +188−1.00uat DraftKings

Why Under? Our model estimates a 35.9% chance of zero hits. The recorded +188 price needs about 35% to break even.

Actual results

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: 34.7%

Ketel MarteARI · at KC · Sep 9 · Final

1.70

1.5

+0.20

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -106+0.94uat betPARX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 54.0% chance of 1 or fewer total bases. The recorded -106 price needs about 51% to break even.

Actual results

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: 51.5%

Bobby Witt Jr.KC · vs ARI · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

1.46

1.5

−0.04

− LossUnder 1.5 · +100−1.00uat Novig

Actual results

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: 50.0%

Tim TawaARI · at KC · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

1.24

1.5

−0.26

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -157+0.64uat betPARX

Actual results

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: 61.1%

TB atATL · 7:15 PM ET

Drake BaldwinATL · vs TB · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

1.28

0.5

+0.78

+ WinOver 0.5 · -190+0.53uat BetRivers

Actual results

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: 65.5%

Sean MurphyATL · vs TB · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.81

0.5

+0.31

− LossOver 0.5 · +105−1.00uat BetMGM

Actual results

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: 48.8%

Richie PalaciosTB · at ATL · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.49

0.5

−0.01

− LossUnder 0.5 · +108−1.00uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 48.1%

Jorge MateoTB · at ATL · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.38

0.5

−0.12

− LossUnder 0.5 · +100−1.00uat ESPN BET

Actual results

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: 50.0%

Cedric MullinsTB · at ATL · Sep 9 · Final

0.89

0.5

+0.39

− LossUnder 0.5 · +110−1.00uat ESPN BET

Why Under? Our model estimates a 49.2% chance of zero total bases. The recorded +110 price needs about 48% to break even.

Actual results

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: 47.6%

COL atNYY · 7:05 PM ET

Ryan McMahonNYY · vs COL · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.55

0.5

+0.05

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +125+1.25uat BetMGM

Why Under? Our model estimates a 46.0% chance of zero hits. The recorded +125 price needs about 44% to break even.

Actual results

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: 44.4%

Zac VeenCOL · at NYY · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.38

0.5

−0.12

− LossUnder 0.5 · +118−1.00uat betPARX

Actual results

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: 45.9%

Cody BellingerNYY · vs COL · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

1.54

1.5

+0.04

− LossUnder 1.5 · -115−1.00uat Novig

Why Under? Our model estimates a 55.6% chance of 1 or fewer total bases. The recorded -115 price needs about 53% to break even.

Actual results

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: 53.5%

Aaron JudgeNYY · vs COL · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

1.40

1.5

−0.10

− LossUnder 1.5 · +100−1.00uat ESPN BET

Actual results

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: 50.0%

LAA atBOS · 6:45 PM ET

Adley RutschmanBOS · vs LAA · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.83

1.5

−0.67

VoidUnder 1.5 · -2030.00uat Novig

Actual results

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: 67.0%

Jarren DuranBOS · vs LAA · Sep 9 · Final

0.67

0.5

+0.17

− LossUnder 0.5 · +180−1.00uat betPARX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 37.1% chance of zero hits. The recorded +180 price needs about 36% to break even.

Actual results

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: 35.7%

Denzer GuzmanLAA · at BOS · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.51

0.5

+0.01

− LossUnder 0.5 · +125−1.00uat BetMGM

Why Under? Our model estimates a 46.0% chance of zero hits. The recorded +125 price needs about 44% to break even.

Actual results

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: 44.4%

Travis d'ArnaudLAA · at BOS · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.37

0.5

−0.13

VoidUnder 0.5 · +1000.00uat ESPN BET

Actual results

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: 50.0%

Jose SiriLAA · at BOS · Sep 9 · Final

0.30

0.5

−0.20

− LossUnder 0.5 · +130−1.00uat BetMGM

Actual results

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: 43.5%

Nick SogardBOS · vs LAA · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.90

0.5

+0.40

Actual: 1 hits · Projection: 0.90Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 64.0%

Oswald PerazaLAA · at BOS · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.41

0.5

−0.09

Actual: 2 hits · Projection: 0.41Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 45.5%

Tyler HeinemanLAA · at BOS · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.28

0.5

−0.22

Actual: 2 hits · Projection: 0.28Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 45.5%

Mickey GasperBOS · vs LAA · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

1.87

1.5

+0.37

Actual: 0 total bases · Projection: 1.87Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 54.1%

Trevor StoryBOS · vs LAA · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

1.62

1.5

+0.12

Actual: 1 total bases · Projection: 1.62Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 55.9%

HOU atPHI · 6:40 PM ET

Brandon MarshPHI · vs HOU · Sep 9 · Final

0.61

0.5

+0.11

− LossUnder 0.5 · +140−1.00uat BetMGM

Why Under? Our model estimates a 44.1% chance of zero hits. The recorded +140 price needs about 42% to break even.

Actual results

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: 41.7%

Bryan De La CruzPHI · vs HOU · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.59

0.5

+0.09

− LossUnder 0.5 · +120−1.00uat BetMGM

Why Under? Our model estimates a 47.2% chance of zero hits. The recorded +120 price needs about 45% to break even.

Actual results

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: 45.5%

Cam SmithHOU · at PHI · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.56

0.5

+0.06

− LossUnder 0.5 · +136−1.00uat ProphetX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 46.4% chance of zero hits. The recorded +136 price needs about 42% to break even.

Actual results

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: 42.4%

Nelson VelazquezHOU · at PHI · Sep 9 · Final

0.32

0.5

−0.18

VoidUnder 0.5 · +1230.00uat betPARX

Actual results

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: 44.8%

Justin CrawfordPHI · vs HOU · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

0.71

0.5

+0.21

− LossUnder 0.5 · +125−1.00uat ESPN BET

Why Under? Our model estimates a 46.2% chance of zero total bases. The recorded +125 price needs about 44% to break even.

Actual results

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: 44.4%

Yainer DiazHOU · at PHI · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

1.71

1.5

+0.21

Actual: 3 total bases · Projection: 1.71Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 61.2%

NYM atMIA · 6:40 PM ET

Brett BatyNYM · at MIA · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.79

0.5

+0.29

+ WinOver 0.5 · -111+0.88uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 52.6%

Kyle StowersMIA · vs NYM · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

1.81

1.5

+0.31

− LossUnder 1.5 · -117−1.00uat betPARX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 56.7% chance of 1 or fewer total bases. The recorded -117 price needs about 54% to break even.

Actual results

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: 53.9%

Juan SotoNYM · at MIA · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

1.59

1.5

+0.09

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -122+0.82uat betPARX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 56.8% chance of 1 or fewer total bases. The recorded -122 price needs about 55% to break even.

Actual results

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: 55.0%

CLE atBAL · 6:35 PM ET

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL · vs CLE · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.99

0.5

+0.49

− LossOver 0.5 · -170−1.00uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 63.0%

Coby MayoBAL · vs CLE · Sep 9 · Final

Hits

0.87

0.5

+0.37

+ WinOver 0.5 · -156+0.64uat Novig

Actual results

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: 60.9%

Carlos NarvaezBAL · vs CLE · Sep 9 · Final

0.25

0.5

−0.25

− LossUnder 0.5 · +100−1.00uat ESPN BET

Actual results

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: 50.0%

Jo AdellCLE · at BAL · Sep 9 · Final

Total Bases

1.20

1.5

−0.30

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -143+0.70uat betPARX

Actual results

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: 58.8%

Wednesday · Sep 9

Today

CIN atLAD · 10:10 PM ET

CHC atMIL · 7:40 PM ET

PIT atCWS · 7:40 PM ET

ARI atKC · 7:40 PM ET

TB atATL · 7:15 PM ET

COL atNYY · 7:05 PM ET

LAA atBOS · 6:45 PM ET

HOU atPHI · 6:40 PM ET

NYM atMIA · 6:40 PM ET

CLE atBAL · 6:35 PM ET

Wednesday · Sep 9

CIN atLAD · 10:10 PM ET

CHC atMIL · 7:40 PM ET

PIT atCWS · 7:40 PM ET

ARI atKC · 7:40 PM ET

TB atATL · 7:15 PM ET

COL atNYY · 7:05 PM ET

LAA atBOS · 6:45 PM ET

HOU atPHI · 6:40 PM ET

NYM atMIA · 6:40 PM ET

CLE atBAL · 6:35 PM ET