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Chandler Simpson Prop Projections

Tampa Bay Rays · LF · MLB

Next game Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians · Fri, Oct 16, 8:00 PM ET

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Projections & lines

Total Bases

Oct 16

Projection only
1.30Projection · total bases
1.5Line · ESPN BET
−0.20Gap
Compare prices

1 play logged at a price · everything else is a projection, not a pick

A logged pick is recorded at a price before the game and kept in the record, win or lose. A card marked Projection only is a projection we did not take.

MarketProjectionLineGap
Total Bases1.301.50−0.20
Hits1.140.50+0.64
Home Runs0.000.50−0.50
RBIs0.380.50−0.12

Recent games

0.90Average total bases, last 10 (10 games)Under 1.50 in 9 of 10 · past results, not odds

Actual Projection Market lineBars: actual games. Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against.

Current through Oct 15 · ● landed under · ○ did not

Full game log
Chandler Simpson game log
DateOpponentTotal Bases
Oct 15@ CLE · Postseason3
Oct 13vs CLE · Postseason1
Oct 12vs CLE · Postseason0
Oct 5vs NYY · Postseason1
Oct 3vs NYY · Postseason0
Sep 25@ PHI0
Sep 24@ NYY1
Sep 22@ NYY1
Sep 22@ NYY1
Sep 20vs BOS1
Every column, last 20 games · via ESPN
Chandler Simpson full game log, last 20 games
DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
Oct 15@ CLEL 3-2301010200000.200.200.333.533
Oct 13vs CLEW 3-1311000000000.167.167.167.333
Oct 12vs CLEL 7-3100000000000.111.111.111.222
Oct 5vs NYYW 5-2411000100010.125.125.125.250
Oct 3vs NYYW 1-0400000000100.000.000.000.000
Sep 25@ PHIW 2-0300000000100.306.333.356.689
Sep 24@ NYYL 6-4501000000000.308.335.357.692
Sep 22@ NYYW 6-1411000000100.309.336.359.695
Sep 22@ NYYL 2-0301000000000.309.337.360.696
Sep 20vs BOSW 5-1301000200010.309.337.360.696
Sep 19vs BOSW 2-1402000000000.309.337.360.697
Sep 18vs BOSL 4-2500000000010.308.336.359.694
Sep 17vs ATHW 10-1522000200020.311.339.362.701
Sep 16vs ATHW 4-3402100100010.310.338.362.700
Sep 15vs ATHW 2-1313100000000.308.337.359.696
Sep 13vs HOUW 14-4511000200000.305.333.353.687
Sep 12vs HOUW 3-2411000000000.306.335.355.689
Sep 11vs HOUW 3-1300000000000.306.335.356.691
Sep 10@ ATLL 3-1300000010000.308.337.358.695
Sep 9@ ATLW 7-2322000010010.309.338.360.697

Context

Next game
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians · Fri, Oct 16, 8:00 PM ET

Compare prices

Total Bases · line 1.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

BookOver 1.5Under 1.5
BetMGM+145−200
Caesars+152−209
DraftKings+155−209
ESPN BET+150−190Best
Hard Rock Bet+155−220
Novig+174Best−441
ProphetX+160−460
Shown, never used as our price
BetOnline+161−213
Bovada+155−210
ReBet+146−216

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 16, 8:05 AM ET.

About these books

Exchange. A federally regulated prediction market, not a state-licensed sportsbook. The price is real, but player-prop depth is thin. Check the size you can actually get before you treat this as your number.

Offshore. Offshore and unlicensed in the US. It has paid reliably for over two decades and often has the better number, but no US regulator can make it pay you, and its rules let it void bets it decides were priced in error, which is exactly the kind of bet we surface.

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Model accuracy

every projection logged for Chandler Simpson

Not enough graded projections yet for Hits, Total Bases, Home Runs and RBIs. An average miss prints once a market has 20. The Graded column counts what there is so far.

Chandler Simpson: projection accuracy by market
MarketGradedAverage missLanded within
Hits5––
Total Bases4––

Neither column is a range for the next game.

See every graded MLB pick in the record

How this is calculated

Projection
StatIQ’s number for Chandler Simpson’s next game in that stat: an estimate, not a pick.
Line
The market’s number at the book named beside it.
Gap
Projection minus the line (−0.20 for total bases). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss
The average distance between the projection and the box score, over this player’s graded projections in that market. Every projection is logged before the game and never deleted; this is accuracy, not a betting record.
Actual
Chandler Simpson’s box-score result in each game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

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