StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

Jake Ferguson Projections

DAL · TE · #87
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
vs HOU
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Week 4
Compare
REC YDSREC
26.4receiving yards projected vs HOU
Season average 24 · Last five 16.6
Updated Oct 1
Typically within 22.4 yards of the result
Recent receiving yards
0122436486NYG43WSH23BALStatIQ projection 26.4
Tap a bar — or a row below — to link a number to its game.
DateOpponentREC YDS
Sep 27, 2026vs vs BAL23
Sep 20, 2026vs vs WSH43
Sep 14, 2026@ @ NYG6
Splits are what he has actually done. The projection is pinned — it does not change when you switch splits.
Dig deeper into Jake Ferguson
Recent games, opponent history, third downs, injuries, comparisons, the exact plays — you decide.
How is Jake Ferguson trending lately?16.6 yards per gameover the last 5 gamesExplore this question

Projection context: Jake Ferguson, 26.4 receiving yards

StatIQ projects Jake Ferguson for 26.4 receiving yards against HOU in Week 4. It’s the model’s single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — and the game log above is the actual history behind it, so you can judge the number yourself.

What we’re seeing, as supporting evidence rather than the reason the model landed on this number: Jake Ferguson has averaged 16.6 yards over his last 5 games and 24 yards per game this season (2026). That’s the recent record to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

Across 482 completed receiving yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 22.4 yards of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

See Jake Ferguson’s last 5 games in full
StatIQ’s Receiving Yards track record
22.4yards
average projection miss
25 within
482 completed receiving yards projections across all players
See the 2026 forward test
This matchup
Opponent
HOU
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Status
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
Recent form
16.6 yards over the last 5
Common questions
What is StatIQ's receiving yards projection for Jake Ferguson vs HOU?

StatIQ projects Jake Ferguson for 26.4 yards receiving yards against HOU in Week 4. It is the model's single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Jake Ferguson performed in receiving yards recently?

Jake Ferguson has averaged 16.6 yards over his last 5 games and 24 yards per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

How accurate are StatIQ's receiving yards projections?

Across 482 completed receiving yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 22.4 yards of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

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