StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

Aaron Nola Stats

Philadelphia Phillies · SP · #27

Aaron Nola’s MLB stats — the full game log and recent per-game averages, plus how often Aaron Nola has cleared tonight's prop lines by recency, home and away, and opponent. Game logs come from ESPN and update after each game.

See Aaron Nola’s full StatIQ projection, accuracy & record

Tonight’s lines (2)

Our projection against the market’s number, with how often they’ve actually cleared that exact line — by recency, home/away, and opponent.

OVER 10.5 PITCHER_OUTS👀 Watching
Our projection16.22
Chance to hit51%
Best pricebetmgm +110

Cleared over 10.5 PITCHER_OUTS

Last 54/580%avg 16.4
Last 109/1090%avg 16.6
Last 2019/2095%avg 16.4
Season32/3397%avg 15.9
Home16/1794%avg 15.3
Away16/16100%avg 16.6

These are trailing results, not a forecast — the market has already priced them in. We show them next to our projection, never instead of it.

OVER 3.5 PITCHER_STRIKEOUTS👀 Watching
Our projection4.55
Chance to hit48%
Best pricenovig +130

Cleared over 3.5 PITCHER_STRIKEOUTS

Last 53/560%avg 4
Last 108/1080%avg 5.6
Last 2017/2085%avg 5.5
Season28/3385%avg 5.4
Home16/1794%avg 5.7
Away12/1675%avg 5

These are trailing results, not a forecast — the market has already priced them in. We show them next to our projection, never instead of it.

Recent form — last 10 games

5.5IP / game
4.5H / game
1.7R / game
1.7ER / game
0.9HR / game

Game log

DateOppResultIPHRERHRBBKGBFBPTBFGSCDecRelERA
Sep 26vs TBL 12-11.04331000721733.0L(7-12)-4.67
Sep 23vs MILL 4-16.044421886882355.0L(7-11)-4.54
Sep 17@ NYMW 3-07.0300034125812472.0W(7-10)-4.49
Sep 11@ ATLL 6-5 F/116.16222337131012753.0--4.69
Sep 6vs ATLL 5-47.0411015712932569.0--4.76
Sep 1@ ARIW 2-15.0511024791042255.0W(6-10)-4.93
Aug 26@ SEAL 4-16.032213776922362.0L(5-10)-5.03
Aug 19vs MIAW 4-17.05111086121002671.0W(5-9)-5.12
Aug 13vs MINW 7-15.051113956972359.0W(4-9)-5.33
Aug 8vs TORL 7-5 F/115.062212857972253.0--5.47
Aug 3vs WSHW 6-36.0633225710972451.0--5.55
Jul 28@ MIAL 1-05.251113479932356.0L(3-9)-5.61
Jul 22vs LADL 9-55.1755214612852337.0L(3-8)-5.82
Jul 16vs NYML 4-16.063334689972750.0L(3-7)-5.68
Jul 10@ DETL 10-25.032212837842059.0--5.75
Jul 5@ KCL 5-27.0733007813982858.0L(3-6)-5.87
Jun 29vs PITL 11-74.1887225610862320.0L(3-5)-6.04
Jun 24@ WSHW 5-45.0322225211862156.0--5.58
Jun 18vs NYML 6-45.0732216611972448.0--5.71
Jun 13@ MILW 9-84.263322398852241.0--5.86
Jun 7vs CHWW 9-54.165504469982331.0--5.86
Jun 2vs SDW 3-25.042210847951959.0--5.55
May 27@ SDW 4-36.032210597802163.0W(3-4)-5.72
May 20vs CINL 9-45.0844005711772340.0L(2-4)-6.04
May 15@ PITW 11-9 F/103.266623267801824.0--5.91

Game logs and standings via ESPN.