StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

Samuel Basallo

Baltimore Orioles · C · #29

Tonight’s lines (4)

Our projection against the market’s number, with how often they’ve actually cleared that exact line — by recency, home/away, and opponent.

UNDER 0.5 BATTER_HOME_RUNS👀 Watching
Our projection0.1
Chance to hit88%
Best priceprophetx -700
Bet at prophetx

Cleared under 0.5 BATTER_HOME_RUNS

Last 54/580%avg 0.2
Last 109/1090%avg 0.1
Last 2019/2095%avg 0.1
Season94/11185%avg 0.2
Home47/5881%avg 0.2
Away47/5389%avg 0.1

These are trailing results, not a forecast — the market has already priced them in. We show them next to our projection, never instead of it.

UNDER 0.5 BATTER_RBIS👀 Watching
Our projection0.39
Chance to hit73%
Best pricebetparx -265

Cleared under 0.5 BATTER_RBIS

Last 53/560%avg 0.6
Last 107/1070%avg 0.4
Last 2015/2075%avg 0.3
Season75/11168%avg 0.5
Home36/5862%avg 0.5
Away39/5374%avg 0.5

These are trailing results, not a forecast — the market has already priced them in. We show them next to our projection, never instead of it.

UNDER 0.5 BATTER_HITS👀 Watching
Our projection0.57
Chance to hit47%
Best pricedraftkings +106
Bet at draftkings

Cleared under 0.5 BATTER_HITS

Last 53/560%avg 0.6
Last 106/1060%avg 0.6
Last 2013/2065%avg 0.5
Season53/11148%avg 0.7
Home27/5847%avg 0.8
Away26/5349%avg 0.7

These are trailing results, not a forecast — the market has already priced them in. We show them next to our projection, never instead of it.

UNDER 0.5 BATTER_TOTAL_BASES👀 Watching
Our projection0.93
Chance to hit47%
Best pricewilliamhill_us +104

Cleared under 0.5 BATTER_TOTAL_BASES

Last 53/560%avg 1.2
Last 106/1060%avg 0.9
Last 2013/2065%avg 0.7
Season53/11148%avg 1.3
Home27/5847%avg 1.4
Away26/5349%avg 1.2

These are trailing results, not a forecast — the market has already priced them in. We show them next to our projection, never instead of it.

Last 10 games

3AB / game
0.4R / game
0.6H / game
02B / game
03B / game

Game log

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
Sep 20vs MILL 3-0300000010100.223.292.408.700
Sep 19vs MILL 1-0300000000000.225.293.411.704
Sep 18vs MILL 6-5 F/10401000100100.227.295.415.710
Sep 16@ NYMW 7-1412001200100.227.296.417.713
Sep 14@ NYMW 2-1200000000100.224.294.407.701
Sep 13@ TORL 8-1300000000100.225.296.409.705
Sep 12@ TORL 7-3100000000100.227.298.413.711
Sep 11@ TORW 7-4311000010000.228.299.414.713
Sep 8vs CLEL 9-5400000100200.227.296.415.711
Sep 7vs CLEW 6-4322000001100.230.300.420.720
Sep 5vs BOSL 5-0400000000000.226.295.418.712
Sep 4vs BOSL 1-0100000000000.228.298.423.721
Sep 3vs BOSL 6-5100000000000.229.299.424.723
Sep 2@ COLL 6-5 F/11401000110000.230.300.425.725
Sep 2@ COLL 4-2200000011100.230.298.428.726
Sep 1@ COLW 2-1301100110100.231.296.430.726
Aug 30@ ATHW 5-3400000000000.230.294.428.722
Aug 27@ STLL 7-5400000000100.233.297.434.731
Aug 26@ STLW 8-7412000010200.236.301.439.740
Aug 25@ STLW 13-1500000000400.233.296.439.735
Aug 23vs TBL 3-1300000000100.236.301.446.747
Aug 22vs TBW 3-2 F/10111001200000.239.303.451.754
Aug 21vs TBW 5-3300000000000.236.301.438.740
Aug 20vs NYYL 6-1400000000200.239.304.443.747
Aug 19vs NYYL 5-3301000001100.242.308.449.757

Game logs and standings via ESPN.