4 tracked MLB positions Saturday · Oct 3 · 339 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 338 watching — not priced, not in the record
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.48rbis
68% range0.4to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-200at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
0model band 0.4–0.5 · no game history on this row1
68.7%
Our chance?
0.4–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.7%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+2.99%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -195
All 7 books · our side
Dabble-192
betPARX-200
BetMGM-220
ESPN BET-240
Hard Rock Bet-260
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.56rbis
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-182at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
66.6%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.6%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 33.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 66.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -182
All 6 books · our side
betPARX-182
Dabble-182
BetMGM-220
Hard Rock Bet-230
DraftKings-239
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.19rbis
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-375at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.19
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
81.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.19 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a modest separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 81.5%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
78.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -375
All 5 books · our side
BetMGM-375
Dabble-500
DraftKings-507
Novig-525
Fliff-550
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.46rbis
68% range0.4to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-265at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
0model band 0.4–0.5 · no game history on this row1
75.4%
Our chance?
0.4–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 75.4%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
72.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -245
All 8 books · our side
betPARX-265
Dabble-312
BetMGM-350
DraftKings-363
Novig-365
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.20home runs
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-614at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.20
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
86.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.20 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 86.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over 0.5 · our side of the market-210at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.20
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
67.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.2%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.77%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
−0.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -212
All 11 books · our side
Dabble-189
ProphetX-210
ESPN BET-220
DraftKings-229
Hard Rock Bet-230
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.64rbis
68% range0.5to0.8line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-360at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
0model band 0.5–0.8 · no game history on this row1
78.8%
Our chance?
0.5–0.8
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a modest separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 78.8%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 21.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 78.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+0.71%
Break-even
78.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -345
All 7 books · our side
Dabble-333
betPARX-360
Novig-400
DraftKings-472
Hard Rock Bet-475
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.08home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-770at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.08
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
89.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.08 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 89.6%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-270at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
0model band 0.5–0.7 · no game history on this row1
72.2%
Our chance?
0.5–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 72.2%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 27.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 72.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.09%
Break-even
73.0%
Edge vs BE
−0.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -270
All 7 books · our side
Dabble-233
Novig-270
BetMGM-275
betPARX-315
DraftKings-320
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.37rbis
68% range0.1to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-260at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
0model band 0.1–0.6 · no game history on this row1
71.4%
Our chance?
0.1–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 71.4%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.10%
Break-even
72.2%
Edge vs BE
−0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
0.5 -245
All 8 books · our side
Dabble-217
ESPN BET-260
betPARX-265
ProphetX-270
BetMGM-275
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.23rbis
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-435at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.23
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
82.1%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.23 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a modest separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 82.1%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+0.94%
Break-even
81.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -450
All 7 books · our side
Dabble-417
betPARX-435
BetMGM-450
DraftKings-533
Novig-545
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.52rbis
68% range0.5to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-315at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
0model band 0.5–0.5 · no game history on this row1
76.0%
Our chance?
0.5–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 76.0%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 24.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 76.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+0.14%
Break-even
75.9%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -305
All 6 books · our side
betPARX-315
ESPN BET-375
Hard Rock Bet-375
DraftKings-397
Novig-400
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.76rbis
68% range0.3to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-278at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.76
0model band 0.3–1.2 · no game history on this row1
72.5%
Our chance?
0.3–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 72.5%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 27.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 72.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.45%
Break-even
73.5%
Edge vs BE
−1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
75¢
Opened
0.5 -265
All 9 books · our side
Dabble-238
betPARX-278
DraftKings-318
ProphetX-320
Hard Rock Bet-325
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
2.16total bases
68% range0.0to8.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5 · our side of the market-165at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 2.16
0model band 0.0–8.4 · no game history on this row9
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–8.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.16 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.66 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-1700at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.12
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
93.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.12 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 93.6%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-350at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.71
0model band 0.4–1.0 · no game history on this row1
76.1%
Our chance?
0.4–1.0
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 76.1%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 23.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 76.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.09%
Break-even
77.8%
Edge vs BE
−1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
79¢
Opened
0.5 -350
All 9 books · our side
Dabble-333
BetMGM-350
betPARX-385
ProphetX-385
ESPN BET-400
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
1.42total bases
68% range0.0to6.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5 · our side of the market-140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.42
0model band 0.0–6.9 · no game history on this row8
56.6%
Our chance?
0.0–6.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.42 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.92 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-2930at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.03
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.03 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.76%
Break-even
96.7%
Edge vs BE
−1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -2930
All 4 books · our side
Novig-2930
ProphetX-3000
ESPN BET-3500
Pinnacle-61279
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
16.1outs recorded
68% range9.8to22.4line 17.5?
Slight lean to the under 17.5 · our side of the market-145at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 17.5
← under pays
proj 16.1
0model band 9.8–22.4 · no game history on this row24
58.7%
Our chance?
9.8–22.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 17.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 16.11 outs recorded against a line of 17.5 — 1.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-1400at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.09
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
93.1%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.09 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 93.1%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-450at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.26
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
80.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.26 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a modest separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 80.2%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.98%
Break-even
81.8%
Edge vs BE
−1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -500
All 2 books · our side
BetMGM-450
Fliff-540
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
53.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.91%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
−1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -115
All 2 books · our side
BetMGM-120
PrizePicks-137
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
1.09total bases
68% range0.0to6.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5 · our side of the market—at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.09
0model band 0.0–6.9 · no game history on this row8
54.0%
Our chance?
0.0–6.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
All 1 books · our side
ReBet-141
CWS @ CLE · 1:01PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.11home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-2500at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.11
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.11 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over 1.5 · our side of the market-176at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.99
0model band 0.2–3.8 · no game history on this row4
60.7%
Our chance?
0.2–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.99 strikeouts against a line of 1.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-135at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
54.4%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.27%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
−3.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
All 3 books · our side
BetMGM-135
Dabble-152
Fliff-160
ATL @ LAD · 4:00PM ET
TrackedPrice locked 4:03PM
Projection?
1.35total bases
68% range0.3to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5 · our side of the market-110at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.35
0model band 0.3–2.4 · no game history on this row3
55.6%
Our chance?
0.3–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.35 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-1150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.09
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
92.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.09 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 92.3%.Risk: an exchange is asking 93¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over 0.5 · our side of the market-205at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.12
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
67.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.5%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-790at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.17
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
88.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.17 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 88.3%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over 0.5 · our side of the market-164at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
60.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-506at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.26
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
82.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.26 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a modest separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 82.6%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.11%
Break-even
83.5%
Edge vs BE
−0.9 pts
Kalshi ask
82¢
Opened
0.5 -471
All 6 books · our side
Dabble-385
Novig-506
ProphetX-520
Pinnacle-534
betPARX-670
ATL @ LAD · 4:00PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.23home runs
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-590at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.23
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
85.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.23 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 85.2%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-1400at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.12
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
92.8%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.12 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 92.8%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-840at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.04
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
90.1%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.04 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 90.1%.Risk: an exchange is asking 92¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over 0.5 · our side of the market-190at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.6%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-115at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
55.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-2500at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.07
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.07 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-1300at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.15
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
91.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.15 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 91.5%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-1200at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.15
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
91.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.15 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 91.2%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-970at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.15
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
89.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.15 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 89.4%.Risk: an exchange is asking 91¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over 0.5 · our side of the market-170at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over 0.5 · our side of the market-176at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
61.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-140at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
57.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.34%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
−0.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -145
All 3 books · our side
BetMGM-140
DraftKings-145
Dabble-147
ATL @ LAD · 4:00PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-137at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
56.1%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.00%
Break-even
57.8%
Edge vs BE
−1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -137
All 4 books · our side
Dabble-123
DraftKings-137
Hard Rock Bet-140
BetMGM-155
ATL @ LAD · 4:00PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
18.8outs recorded
68% range14.6to23.0line 17.5?
Slight lean to the over 17.5 · our side of the market-175at DraftKings
LINE 17.5
over pays →
proj 18.8
0model band 14.6–23.0 · no game history on this row25
62.5%
Our chance?
14.6–23.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 17.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 18.84 outs recorded against a line of 17.5 — 1.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over 16.5 · our side of the market+113at Novig
LINE 16.5
over pays →
proj 18.3
0model band 0.0–50.5 · no game history on this row54
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–50.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 16.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 18.28 outs recorded against a line of 16.5 — 1.78 to the over side, inside a band of ±32.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+11.19%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+5.3 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
16.5 -102
All 12 books · our side
ProphetX+113
Novig+108
Hard Rock Bet-110
DraftKings-119
Dabble-120
NYY @ TB · 6:31PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.55rbis
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-265at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
75.0%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 75.0%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 25.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 75.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
72.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -265
All 7 books · our side
Dabble-263
betPARX-265
BetMGM-350
DraftKings-371
Hard Rock Bet-375
NYY @ TB · 6:31PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.38rbis
68% range0.2to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-305at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
0model band 0.2–0.5 · no game history on this row1
77.4%
Our chance?
0.2–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 77.4%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+2.80%
Break-even
75.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -305
All 8 books · our side
Dabble-294
betPARX-305
BetMGM-350
Hard Rock Bet-375
ESPN BET-400
NYY @ TB · 6:31PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
0.26rbis
68% range0.0to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5 · our side of the market-400at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.26
0model band 0.0–0.6 · no game history on this row1
79.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.26 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a modest separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 79.6%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.51%
Break-even
80.0%
Edge vs BE
−0.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -350
All 8 books · our side
Dabble-370
betPARX-400
BetMGM-450
Hard Rock Bet-450
ESPN BET-450
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.