WNBA — Friday · Oct 2 · append-only record · no ROI claims
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Today · StatIQ Sports
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WNBA tracked record12–1224 graded · 50.0% hit · −6.9% ROIThis is the live post-restart record only — an earlier WNBA season was lost and is shown separately, never added in.
6 tracked WNBA positions Friday · Oct 2 · 43 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 35 watching — not priced, not in the record
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
DALDallas WingsDAL vs GS · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betPrice locked 4:05PM
Projection?
3.3points
68% range0.0to10.1line 5.5?
Strong lean to the under 5.5 · our side of the market-118at FanDuel
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 3.3
0model band 0.0–10.1 · last 15 games11
12/15
Landed the under 5.5 in 12 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
62.8%
Our chance?
0.0–10.1
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 12 of the last 15 times.We project 3.26 points against a line of 5.5 — 2.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.8%.Risk: assumes 13.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Solid lean to the under 3.5 · our side of the market-136at FanDuel
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 3.2
0model band 1.4–4.9 · last 15 games8
9/15
Landed the under 3.5 in 9 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
57.5%
Our chance?
1.4–4.9
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 9 of the last 15 times.We project 3.17 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.5%.Risk: assumes 31 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Strong lean to the under 1.5 · our side of the market-225at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.02
0model band 0.0–2.2 · last 15 games8
10/15
Landed the under 1.5 in 10 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
65.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 10 of the last 15 times.We project 1.02 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.48 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.6%.Risk: assumes 20.4 minutes.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.22%
Break-even
69.2%
Edge vs BE
−3.6 pts
Books priced
1
Minutes
20.4
Opened
1.5 -225
All 1 books · our side
betPARX-225
DALDallas WingsDAL vs GS · 9:00PM ET
TrackedPrice locked 4:05PM
Projection?
4.2points
68% range0.0to10.4line 5.5?
Solid lean to the under 5.5 · our side of the market-106at FanDuel
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 4.2
0model band 0.0–10.4 · last 15 games19
12/15
Landed the under 5.5 in 12 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–10.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 12 of the last 15 times.We project 4.17 points against a line of 5.5 — 1.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: assumes 12.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the over 1.5 · our side of the market+102at betPARX
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.58
0model band 0.9–2.3 · last 15 games4
6/15
Landed the over 1.5 in 6 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
45.6%
Our chance?
0.9–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 6 of the last 15 times.We project 1.58 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.08 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.6%.Risk: assumes 18.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−7.97%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
−3.9 pts
Books priced
5
Minutes
18.8
Opened
1.5 +102
All 5 books · our side
betPARX+102
BetRivers+102
DraftKings-102
Novig-102
ProphetX-107
GSGolden State ValkyriesGS vs DAL · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betPrice locked 4:05PM
Projection?
1.51assists
68% range0.0to10.7line 3.5?
Solid lean to the under 3.5 · our side of the market+130at FanDuel
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 1.51
0model band 0.0–10.7 · last 15 games12
13/15
Landed the under 3.5 in 13 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
58.5%
Our chance?
0.0–10.7
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 13 of the last 15 times.We project 1.51 assists against a line of 3.5 — 1.99 to the under side, inside a band of ±9.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.5%.Risk: assumes 20.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Strong lean to the under 1.5 · our side of the market-210at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.75
0model band 0.0–2.3 · last 15 games3
11/15
Landed the under 1.5 in 11 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
68.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 11 of the last 15 times.We project 0.75 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.75 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.3%.Risk: assumes 19.9 minutes.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over 4.5 · our side of the market-124at DraftKings
LINE 4.5
over pays →
proj 4.6
0model band 1.3–7.9 · last 15 games13
7/15
Landed the over 4.5 in 7 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
50.7%
Our chance?
1.3–7.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 7 of the last 15 times.We project 4.60 assists against a line of 4.5 — 0.10 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.7%.Risk: assumes 30.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under 7.5 · our side of the market-105at DraftKings
LINE 7.5
← under pays
proj 4.2
0model band 0.0–22.0 · last 15 games24
9/15
Landed the under 7.5 in 9 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
57.4%
Our chance?
0.0–22.0
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 7.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 9 of the last 15 times.We project 4.16 points against a line of 7.5 — 3.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±17.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.4%.Risk: assumes 18 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Strong lean to the under 1.5 · our side of the market-184at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.79
0model band 0.0–2.5 · last 15 games4
11/15
Landed the under 1.5 in 11 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
66.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 11 of the last 15 times.We project 0.79 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.71 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.1%.Risk: assumes 20 minutes.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the over 4.5 · our side of the market-122at polymarket
LINE 4.5
over pays →
proj 4.6
0model band 4.0–5.2 · last 15 games12
11/15
Landed the over 4.5 in 11 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
56.0%
Our chance?
4.0–5.2
68% range?
Solid lean to the over 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 11 of the last 15 times.We project 4.60 assists against a line of 4.5 — 0.10 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.0%.Risk: assumes 31.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+1.85%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Books priced
9
Minutes
31.6
Opened
4.5 -122
All 9 books · our side
polymarket-122
FanDuel-132
betPARX-134
BetRivers-134
Novig-135
GSGolden State ValkyriesGS vs DAL · 9:00PM ET
Watching · no price taken
Projection?
5.3assists
68% range4.2to6.5line 5.5?
Slight lean to the under 5.5 · our side of the market+120at FanDuel
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 5.3
0model band 4.2–6.5 · last 15 games14
6/15
Landed the under 5.5 in 6 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
44.3%
Our chance?
4.2–6.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 6 of the last 15 times.We project 5.33 assists against a line of 5.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.3%.Risk: assumes 24.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
