WNBA — tonight’s slate, priced and logged before tip · no ROI claims
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Today · StatIQ Sports
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Tap ★ on any player to pin them here across every slate.
WNBA tracked record12–1224 graded · 50.0% hit · −6.9% ROIThis is the live post-restart record only — an earlier WNBA season was lost and is shown separately, never added in.
7 tracked WNBA positions today · 48 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 5 settled and still on the board · 7 watching — not priced, not in the record
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
Updated 9:05 PM ET · refreshes automatically while you watch.
Live
Finding the best price across books and the exchange… rows below show the posted board price and are ready to use now.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
2.62assists
68% range0.2to5.1line 3.5?
Strong lean to the under 3.5 · our side of the market-152at ProphetX
line 2.5 → 3.5
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 2.62
0model band 0.2–5.1 · last 15 games6
11/15
Landed the under 3.5 in 11 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
64.1%
Our chance?
0.2–5.1
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 11 of the last 15 times.We project 2.62 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.88 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.1%.Risk: assumes 32.2 minutes.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.20%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
32.2
Opened
2.5 -162
All 8 books · our side
ProphetX-150
FanDuel-154
ESPN BET-155
Caesars-159
Hard Rock Bet-170
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
3.0assists
68% range0.2to5.9line 3.5?
Solid lean to the under 3.5 · our side of the market-125at FanDuel
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 3.0
0model band 0.2–5.9 · last 15 games8
9/15
Landed the under 3.5 in 9 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
56.4%
Our chance?
0.2–5.9
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 9 of the last 15 times.We project 3.05 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.45 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.4%.Risk: assumes 29.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
29.8
Opened
3.5 -130
All 8 books · our side
ProphetX-122
Hard Rock Bet-125
betPARX-127
FanDuel-128
ESPN BET-130
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
8.2assists
68% range0.3to16.1line 9.5?
Solid lean to the under 9.5 · our side of the market-122at Novig
LINE 9.5
← under pays
proj 8.2
0model band 0.3–16.1 · last 15 games17
8/15
Landed the under 9.5 in 8 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
56.5%
Our chance?
0.3–16.1
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 9.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 8 of the last 15 times.We project 8.22 assists against a line of 9.5 — 1.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.5%.Risk: assumes 32.9 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.94%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Books priced
7
Minutes
32.9
Opened
9.5 -135
All 7 books · our side
betPARX-109
Hard Rock Bet-110
Caesars-137
DraftKings-142
FanDuel-144
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
7.1assists
68% range1.2to12.9line 6.5?
Slight lean to the over 6.5 · our side of the market-112at FanDuel
LINE 6.5
over pays →
proj 7.1
0model band 1.2–12.9 · last 15 games14
10/15
Landed the over 6.5 in 10 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
54.0%
Our chance?
1.2–12.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 6.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 10 of the last 15 times.We project 7.09 assists against a line of 6.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.0%.Risk: assumes 33.9 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+2.24%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Books priced
9
Minutes
33.9
Opened
6.5 -108
All 9 books · our side
DraftKings-125
ProphetX-132
Caesars-134
FanDuel-136
Hard Rock Bet-140
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 9:00PM ET
TrackedIn progress · line stale
Projection?
4.8points
68% range0.0to10.3line 5.5?
Slight lean to the under 5.5 · our side of the market-125at DraftKings
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 4.8
0model band 0.0–10.3 · last 15 games16
8/15
Landed the under 5.5 in 8 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
50.2%
Our chance?
0.0–10.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 8 of the last 15 times.We project 4.75 points against a line of 5.5 — 0.75 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: assumes 11.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+10.47%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
−5.4 pts
Books priced
6
Minutes
11.6
Opened
5.5 -125
All 6 books · our side
Hard Rock Bet-125
DraftKings-129
Caesars-129
betPARX-129
FanDuel-130
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
6.2assists
68% range0.0to13.0line 6.5?
Slight lean to the under 6.5 · our side of the market-117at Novig
LINE 6.5
← under pays
proj 6.2
0model band 0.0–13.0 · last 15 games14
8/15
Landed the under 6.5 in 8 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–13.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 6.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 8 of the last 15 times.We project 6.15 assists against a line of 6.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: assumes 32.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+2.04%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
−1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
32.5
Opened
6.5 -117
All 8 books · our side
Hard Rock Bet+110
betPARX+108
ProphetX-105
ESPN BET-110
FanDuel-118
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
1.50assists
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5 · our side of the market-125at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
0model band 0.3–2.7 · last 15 games3
8/15
Landed the under 1.5 in 8 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
56.6%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 8 of the last 15 times.We project 1.50 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.6%.Risk: assumes 28.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+1.92%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Books priced
5
Minutes
28.1
Opened
1.5 -190
All 5 books · our side
ProphetX-134
DraftKings-153
FanDuel-158
betPARX-182
Hard Rock Bet-185
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 9:00PM ET
TrackedIn progress · line stale
Projection?
2.75assists
68% range1.3to4.2line 2.5?
Slight lean to the over 2.5 · our side of the market+100at polymarket
LINE 2.5
over pays →
proj 2.75
0model band 1.3–4.2 · last 15 games5
9/15
Landed the over 2.5 in 9 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
50.1%
Our chance?
1.3–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 9 of the last 15 times.We project 2.75 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.1%.Risk: assumes 32.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.11%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
32.4
Opened
2.5 +100
All 8 books · our side
ProphetX+105
Novig+104
FanDuel+100
DraftKings-113
Hard Rock Bet-115
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
0.64assists
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Strong lean to the over 0.5 · our side of the market-130at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.64
0model band 0.1–1.2 · last 15 games2
10/15
Landed the over 0.5 in 10 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
60.2%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Strong lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 10 of the last 15 times.We project 0.64 assists against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: assumes 16.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
−3.68%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Books priced
3
Minutes
16.2
Opened
0.5 -170
All 3 books · our side
Hard Rock Bet-220
betPARX-225
BetRivers-225
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
3.4points
68% range0.0to10.5line 5.5?
Strong lean to the under 5.5 · our side of the market-114at ProphetX
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 3.4
0model band 0.0–10.5 · last 15 games11
12/15
Landed the under 5.5 in 12 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
61.7%
Our chance?
0.0–10.5
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 12 of the last 15 times.We project 3.37 points against a line of 5.5 — 2.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.7%.Risk: assumes 11.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+14.38%
Break-even
53.3%
Edge vs BE
+8.4 pts
Books priced
6
Minutes
11.6
Opened
5.5 -127
All 6 books · our side
ProphetX+108
Caesars+102
DraftKings-102
FanDuel-102
Hard Rock Bet-130
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
6.5points
68% range0.0to24.1line 5.5?
Slight lean to the over 5.5 · our side of the market-105at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 5.5
over pays →
proj 6.5
0model band 0.0–24.1 · last 15 games26
7/15
Landed the over 5.5 in 7 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–24.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 7 of the last 15 times.We project 6.49 points against a line of 5.5 — 0.99 to the over side, inside a band of ±17.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.3%.Risk: assumes 23 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
−3.09%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Books priced
7
Minutes
23
Opened
5.5 -127
All 7 books · our side
Hard Rock Bet-105
betPARX-109
BetRivers-109
ProphetX-118
DraftKings-120
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 9:00PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
4.3points
68% range0.0to8.9line 5.5?
Strong lean to the under 5.5-104at FanDuel
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 4.3
0model band 0.0–8.9 · no game history on this row10
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–8.9
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.33 points against a line of 5.5 — 1.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.0%.Risk: assumes 17.9 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+21.22%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+9.0 pts
Books priced
2
Minutes
17.9
Opened
5.5 -104
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
2.62assists
68% range0.2to5.1line 3.5?
Strong lean to the under 3.5 · our side of the market-152at ProphetX
line 2.5 → 3.5
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 2.62
0model band 0.2–5.1 · last 15 games6
11/15
Landed the under 3.5 in 11 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
64.1%
Our chance?
0.2–5.1
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 11 of the last 15 times.We project 2.62 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.88 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.1%.Risk: assumes 32.2 minutes.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.20%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
32.2
Opened
2.5 -162
All 8 books · our side
ProphetX-150
FanDuel-154
ESPN BET-155
Caesars-159
Hard Rock Bet-170
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
3.0assists
68% range0.2to5.9line 3.5?
Solid lean to the under 3.5 · our side of the market-125at FanDuel
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 3.0
0model band 0.2–5.9 · last 15 games8
9/15
Landed the under 3.5 in 9 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
56.4%
Our chance?
0.2–5.9
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 9 of the last 15 times.We project 3.05 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.45 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.4%.Risk: assumes 29.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
29.8
Opened
3.5 -130
All 8 books · our side
ProphetX-122
Hard Rock Bet-125
betPARX-127
FanDuel-128
ESPN BET-130
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
8.2assists
68% range0.3to16.1line 9.5?
Solid lean to the under 9.5 · our side of the market-122at Novig
LINE 9.5
← under pays
proj 8.2
0model band 0.3–16.1 · last 15 games17
8/15
Landed the under 9.5 in 8 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
56.5%
Our chance?
0.3–16.1
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 9.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 8 of the last 15 times.We project 8.22 assists against a line of 9.5 — 1.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.5%.Risk: assumes 32.9 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.94%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Books priced
7
Minutes
32.9
Opened
9.5 -135
All 7 books · our side
betPARX-109
Hard Rock Bet-110
Caesars-137
DraftKings-142
FanDuel-144
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
7.1assists
68% range1.2to12.9line 6.5?
Slight lean to the over 6.5 · our side of the market-112at FanDuel
LINE 6.5
over pays →
proj 7.1
0model band 1.2–12.9 · last 15 games14
10/15
Landed the over 6.5 in 10 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
54.0%
Our chance?
1.2–12.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 6.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 10 of the last 15 times.We project 7.09 assists against a line of 6.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.0%.Risk: assumes 33.9 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+2.24%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Books priced
9
Minutes
33.9
Opened
6.5 -108
All 9 books · our side
DraftKings-125
ProphetX-132
Caesars-134
FanDuel-136
Hard Rock Bet-140
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 9:00PM ET
TrackedIn progress · line stale
Projection?
4.8points
68% range0.0to10.3line 5.5?
Slight lean to the under 5.5 · our side of the market-125at DraftKings
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 4.8
0model band 0.0–10.3 · last 15 games16
8/15
Landed the under 5.5 in 8 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
50.2%
Our chance?
0.0–10.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 8 of the last 15 times.We project 4.75 points against a line of 5.5 — 0.75 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: assumes 11.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+10.47%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
−5.4 pts
Books priced
6
Minutes
11.6
Opened
5.5 -125
All 6 books · our side
Hard Rock Bet-125
DraftKings-129
Caesars-129
betPARX-129
FanDuel-130
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
6.2assists
68% range0.0to13.0line 6.5?
Slight lean to the under 6.5 · our side of the market-117at Novig
LINE 6.5
← under pays
proj 6.2
0model band 0.0–13.0 · last 15 games14
8/15
Landed the under 6.5 in 8 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–13.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 6.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 8 of the last 15 times.We project 6.15 assists against a line of 6.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: assumes 32.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+2.04%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
−1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
32.5
Opened
6.5 -117
All 8 books · our side
Hard Rock Bet+110
betPARX+108
ProphetX-105
ESPN BET-110
FanDuel-118
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
1.50assists
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5 · our side of the market-125at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
0model band 0.3–2.7 · last 15 games3
8/15
Landed the under 1.5 in 8 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
56.6%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 8 of the last 15 times.We project 1.50 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.6%.Risk: assumes 28.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+1.92%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Books priced
5
Minutes
28.1
Opened
1.5 -190
All 5 books · our side
ProphetX-134
DraftKings-153
FanDuel-158
betPARX-182
Hard Rock Bet-185
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 9:00PM ET
TrackedIn progress · line stale
Projection?
2.75assists
68% range1.3to4.2line 2.5?
Slight lean to the over 2.5 · our side of the market+100at polymarket
LINE 2.5
over pays →
proj 2.75
0model band 1.3–4.2 · last 15 games5
9/15
Landed the over 2.5 in 9 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
50.1%
Our chance?
1.3–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 9 of the last 15 times.We project 2.75 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.1%.Risk: assumes 32.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.11%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
32.4
Opened
2.5 +100
All 8 books · our side
ProphetX+105
Novig+104
FanDuel+100
DraftKings-113
Hard Rock Bet-115
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
0.64assists
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Strong lean to the over 0.5 · our side of the market-130at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.64
0model band 0.1–1.2 · last 15 games2
10/15
Landed the over 0.5 in 10 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
60.2%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Strong lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 10 of the last 15 times.We project 0.64 assists against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: assumes 16.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
−3.68%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Books priced
3
Minutes
16.2
Opened
0.5 -170
All 3 books · our side
Hard Rock Bet-220
betPARX-225
BetRivers-225
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
3.4points
68% range0.0to10.5line 5.5?
Strong lean to the under 5.5 · our side of the market-114at ProphetX
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 3.4
0model band 0.0–10.5 · last 15 games11
12/15
Landed the under 5.5 in 12 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
61.7%
Our chance?
0.0–10.5
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 12 of the last 15 times.We project 3.37 points against a line of 5.5 — 2.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.7%.Risk: assumes 11.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+14.38%
Break-even
53.3%
Edge vs BE
+8.4 pts
Books priced
6
Minutes
11.6
Opened
5.5 -127
All 6 books · our side
ProphetX+108
Caesars+102
DraftKings-102
FanDuel-102
Hard Rock Bet-130
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not betIn progress · line stale
Projection?
6.5points
68% range0.0to24.1line 5.5?
Slight lean to the over 5.5 · our side of the market-105at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 5.5
over pays →
proj 6.5
0model band 0.0–24.1 · last 15 games26
7/15
Landed the over 5.5 in 7 of the last 15 gamesTrailing results, not a forecast
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–24.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly. It has landed 7 of the last 15 times.We project 6.49 points against a line of 5.5 — 0.99 to the over side, inside a band of ±17.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.3%.Risk: assumes 23 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
−3.09%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Books priced
7
Minutes
23
Opened
5.5 -127
All 7 books · our side
Hard Rock Bet-105
betPARX-109
BetRivers-109
ProphetX-118
DraftKings-120
Game started — the line is stale — betting is closed here. The row stays on the board and will show its result once it grades.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 9:00PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
4.3points
68% range0.0to8.9line 5.5?
Strong lean to the under 5.5-104at FanDuel
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 4.3
0model band 0.0–8.9 · no game history on this row10
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–8.9
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.33 points against a line of 5.5 — 1.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.0%.Risk: assumes 17.9 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+21.22%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+9.0 pts
Books priced
2
Minutes
17.9
Opened
5.5 -104
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
