5 tracked MLB positions Thursday · Oct 1 · 89 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 94 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.31total bases
68% range0.6to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-156at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.31
0model band 0.6–2.0 · no game history on this row2
61.2%
Our chance?
0.6–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+0.50%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.30total bases
68% range0.3to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-145at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.30
0model band 0.3–2.3 · no game history on this row3
58.3%
Our chance?
0.3–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.30 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.48%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
−0.9 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.93total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.93
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
41.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.30%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
−1.9 pts
Opened
1.5 -275
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.24total bases
68% range0.4to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-173at Caesars
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.24
0model band 0.4–2.1 · no game history on this row2
61.9%
Our chance?
0.4–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.26%
Break-even
63.4%
Edge vs BE
−1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
5¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.91total bases
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5—at —
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.91
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
43.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -260
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.73total bases
68% range0.8to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.73
0model band 0.8–2.7 · no game history on this row3
59.6%
Our chance?
0.8–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.73 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 40.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 59.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.26%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
−2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.04total bases
68% range0.0to5.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at BetMGM
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
0model band 0.0–5.3 · no game history on this row6
55.1%
Our chance?
0.0–5.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.58%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
−3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
76¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.12total bases
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ESPN BET
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.12
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
56.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.43%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
−3.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.19total bases
68% range0.0to11.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at Fanatics Sportsbook
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
0model band 0.0–11.4 · no game history on this row12
52.7%
Our chance?
0.0–11.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±10.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.40%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
−1.9 pts
Opened
1.5 -110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
2.05total bases
68% range0.0to4.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.05
0model band 0.0–4.6 · no game history on this row5
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–4.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.05 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.55 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 41.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 58.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.87%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
−2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.94total bases
68% range0.2to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.94
0model band 0.2–3.7 · no game history on this row4
59.8%
Our chance?
0.2–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.94 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 40.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 59.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.84%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
−1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.55total bases
68% range1.4to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.55
0model band 1.4–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.1%
Our chance?
1.4–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.55 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 36.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 63.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.64%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
−2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
5¢
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
2.03total bases
68% range0.0to4.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-142at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.03
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
59.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.53 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 40.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 59.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+1.66%
Break-even
58.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.28total bases
68% range0.0to5.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetMGM
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.28
0model band 0.0–5.6 · no game history on this row6
57.1%
Our chance?
0.0–5.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.78 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.78%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
−2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
78¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.93total bases
68% range0.0to4.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.93
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row5
57.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.93 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 57.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.77%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
−2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -195
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.76total bases
68% range1.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.76
0model band 1.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
64.2%
Our chance?
1.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.76 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.2%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 35.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 64.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.67%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
−2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1.5 -260
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
54.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.02home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-1438at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.02
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
94.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.02 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 94.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 92¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+0.53%
Break-even
93.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
92¢
Opened
0.5 -6567
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
52.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -115
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.41rbis
68% range0.3to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-325at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
0model band 0.3–0.5 · no game history on this row1
76.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 76.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.56%
Break-even
76.5%
Edge vs BE
−0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
78¢
Opened
0.5 -325
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
16.2outs recorded
68% range12.2to20.2line 10.5?
Solid lean to the over 10.5+110at BetMGM
line 11.5 → 10.5
LINE 10.5
over pays →
proj 16.2
0model band 12.2–20.2 · no game history on this row22
50.7%
Our chance?
12.2–20.2
68% range?
Solid lean to the over 10.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 16.22 outs recorded against a line of 10.5 — 5.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.0. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the over at 50.7%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 92.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+6.43%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
11.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.21strikeouts
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5—at —
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
68.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 strikeouts against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.3%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
14.2outs recorded
68% range0.0to32.8line 11.5?
Slight lean to the over 11.5-135at BetMGM
LINE 11.5
over pays →
proj 14.2
0model band 0.0–32.8 · no game history on this row35
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–32.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 11.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 14.15 outs recorded against a line of 11.5 — 2.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±18.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.15%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
−1.8 pts
Opened
11.5 -135
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.62total bases
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
54.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.13%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
−2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:11PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.00home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.00
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.00 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -1567
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:11PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.86total bases
68% range0.0to5.3line 2?
Slight lean to the under 2—at —
line 1.5 → 2
LINE 2
← under pays
proj 0.86
0model band 0.0–5.3 · no game history on this row6
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–5.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 2. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 total bases against a line of 2 — 1.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ATL · 8:11PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.20rbis
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.20
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
84.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.20 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a modest separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 84.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -475
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.