WNBA — Wednesday · Sep 30 · append-only record · no ROI claims
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Today · StatIQ Sports
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WNBA tracked record12–1224 graded · 50.0% hit · −6.9% ROIThis is the live post-restart record only — an earlier WNBA season was lost and is shown separately, never added in.
12 tracked WNBA positions Wednesday · Sep 30 · 111 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 123 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
DALDallas WingsDAL vs GS · 9:00PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
2.14rebounds
68% range0.7to3.6line 2.5?
Solid lean to the under 2.5—at —
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 2.14
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.7–3.6 · no game history on this row4
50.0%
Our chance?
0.7–3.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.14 rebounds against a line of 2.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one.Risk: assumes 14 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Books priced
0
Minutes
14
−1.00uSettled at — · graded from the box score.
DALDallas WingsDAL vs GS · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
3.1assists
68% range1.5to4.8line 3.5?
Solid lean to the under 3.5-122at polymarket
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 3.1
✗ actual 4
0model band 1.5–4.8 · no game history on this row5
59.3%
Our chance?
1.5–4.8
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 3.12 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.3%.Risk: assumes 30.9 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+2.89%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
30.9
Opened
3.5 -154
CLV vs close
+6.29 pts
−1.00uSettled at -122 at polymarket · graded from the box score · CLV +6.29 pts.
DALDallas WingsDAL vs GS · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.03assists
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Strong lean to the under 1.5-156at ProphetX
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
64.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.9%.Risk: assumes 20.6 minutes.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.39%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Books priced
3
Minutes
20.6
Opened
1 -225
CLV vs close
+0.60 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.60 pts.
DALDallas WingsDAL vs GS · 9:00PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
4.3points
68% range3.1to5.4line 4.5?
Solid lean to the under 4.5-113at ProphetX
LINE 4.5
← under pays
proj 4.3
✗ actual 13
0model band 3.1–5.4 · no game history on this row14
57.1%
Our chance?
3.1–5.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.29 points against a line of 4.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.1%.Risk: assumes 12.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Books priced
4
Minutes
12.1
Opened
4.5 -113
CLV vs close
+2.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at -113 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.50 pts.
GSGolden State ValkyriesGS vs DAL · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.56assists
68% range0.8to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+104at polymarket
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.8–2.4 · no game history on this row3
46.9%
Our chance?
0.8–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.56 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.9%.Risk: assumes 19.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
−8.07%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
−2.1 pts
Books priced
5
Minutes
19.2
Opened
1.5 -105
CLV vs close
+4.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at +104 at polymarket · graded from the box score · CLV +4.03 pts.
GSGolden State ValkyriesGS vs DAL · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.50assists
68% range0.0to5.2line 3.5?
Strong lean to the under 3.5-170at Caesars
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
✗ actual 7
0model band 0.0–5.2 · no game history on this row8
70.7%
Our chance?
0.0–5.2
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 3.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 assists against a line of 3.5 — 2.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.7%.Risk: assumes 20.3 minutes.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+14.88%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+7.7 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Books priced
6
Minutes
20.3
Opened
3.5 -170
CLV vs close
−1.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at -170 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV −1.57 pts.
GSGolden State ValkyriesGS vs DAL · 9:00PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
0.78assists
68% range0.0to5.0line 1.5?
Solid lean to the under 1.5—at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.78
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
56.8%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.72 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.8%.Risk: assumes 20.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Books priced
0
Minutes
20.4
−1.00uSettled at — · graded from the box score.
DALDallas WingsDAL vs GS · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
4.7assists
68% range2.0to7.3line 4.5?
Slight lean to the over 4.5+100at Novig
LINE 4.5
over pays →
proj 4.7
✓ actual 6
0model band 2.0–7.3 · no game history on this row8
47.7%
Our chance?
2.0–7.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.65 assists against a line of 4.5 — 0.15 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.7%.Risk: assumes 30.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
−3.07%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
−2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
30.3
Opened
4.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.05 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.05 pts.
GSGolden State ValkyriesGS vs DAL · 9:00PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.51assists
68% range0.0to1.2line 1.5?
Strong lean to the under 1.5+290at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row2
50.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 1.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.99 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces.Risk: assumes 17.6 minutes.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
25.6%
Edge vs BE
+24.4 pts
Books priced
0
Minutes
17.6
+2.90uSettled at +290 at ProphetX · graded from the box score.
GSGolden State ValkyriesGS vs DAL · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.81assists
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Strong lean to the under 1.5-170at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.81
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
66.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.69 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.3%.Risk: assumes 20 minutes.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.24%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Books priced
1
Minutes
20
Opened
1.5 -177
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DALDallas WingsDAL vs GS · 9:00PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.64assists
68% range0.0to5.8line 1.5?
Solid lean to the under 1.5—at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.8 · no game history on this row6
56.6%
Our chance?
0.0–5.8
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.86 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.6%.Risk: assumes 14.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Books priced
0
Minutes
14.3
0.00uSettled at — · graded from the box score.
DALDallas WingsDAL vs GS · 9:00PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
4.8assists
68% range0.3to9.2line 5.5?
Solid lean to the under 5.5-146at ProphetX
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 4.8
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.3–9.2 · no game history on this row10
56.5%
Our chance?
0.3–9.2
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.77 assists against a line of 5.5 — 0.73 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.5%.Risk: assumes 31.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.80%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
−2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Books priced
6
Minutes
31.7
Opened
5.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.68uSettled at -146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
GSGolden State ValkyriesGS vs DAL · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.14assists
68% range0.0to6.4line 2.5?
Strong lean to the under 2.5-124at ProphetX
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 1.14
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–6.4 · no game history on this row7
60.3%
Our chance?
0.0–6.4
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 assists against a line of 2.5 — 1.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.3%.Risk: assumes 13.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+16.13%
Break-even
55.4%
Edge vs BE
+4.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Books priced
6
Minutes
13.6
Opened
2.5 -130
CLV vs close
−3.43 pts
+0.81uSettled at -124 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −3.43 pts.
GSGolden State ValkyriesGS vs DAL · 9:00PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
5.5assists
68% range0.4to10.7line 6.5?
Solid lean to the under 6.5-135at DraftKings
line 6 → 6.5
LINE 6.5
← under pays
proj 5.5
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.4–10.7 · no game history on this row12
57.3%
Our chance?
0.4–10.7
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 6.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 5.55 assists against a line of 6.5 — 0.95 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.3%.Risk: assumes 24.9 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+1.31%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
−0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
24.9
Opened
6 -145
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
GSGolden State ValkyriesGS vs DAL · 9:00PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
4.9points
68% range1.6to8.2line 4.5?
Slight lean to the over 4.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 4.5
over pays →
proj 4.9
✓ actual 14
0model band 1.6–8.2 · no game history on this row15
51.8%
Our chance?
1.6–8.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.89 points against a line of 4.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.8%.Risk: assumes 15.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−11.50%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
−6.5 pts
Books priced
1
Minutes
15.5
Opened
4.5 -141
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
GSGolden State ValkyriesGS vs DAL · 9:00PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
4.5points
68% range0.0to9.6line 4.5?
Slight lean to the over 4.5-135at Novig
LINE 4.5
over pays →
proj 4.5
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–9.6 · no game history on this row10
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–9.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.52 points against a line of 4.5 — 0.02 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.5%.Risk: assumes 12.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−15.32%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
−7.9 pts
Books priced
2
Minutes
12.2
Opened
4.5 -142
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATLAtlanta DreamATL vs WAS · 7:10PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
2.64assists
68% range1.1to4.2line 2.5?
Slight lean to the over 2.5+113at Novig
LINE 2.5
over pays →
proj 2.64
✓ actual 3
0model band 1.1–4.2 · no game history on this row5
46.2%
Our chance?
1.1–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.64 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.14 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.2%.Risk: assumes 31.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.52%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
−0.7 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
31.4
Opened
2.5 +115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.13uSettled at +113 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATLAtlanta DreamATL vs WAS · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.00assists
68% range0.0to4.1line 2.5?
Solid lean to the under 2.5-105at DraftKings
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 2.00
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row4
59.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.00 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.5%.Risk: assumes 28.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.46%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+8.3 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
28.4
Opened
2.5 -105
CLV vs close
+5.11 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +5.11 pts.
WASWashington MysticsWAS vs ATL · 7:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
7.6points
68% range0.0to23.6line 4.5?
Solid lean to the over 4.5-120at Novig
LINE 4.5
over pays →
proj 7.6
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–23.6 · no game history on this row25
56.6%
Our chance?
0.0–23.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the over 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 7.56 points against a line of 4.5 — 3.06 to the over side, inside a band of ±16.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.6%.Risk: assumes 21.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.72%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Books priced
1
Minutes
21.4
Opened
4.5 -138
CLV vs close
+5.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.45 pts.
ATLAtlanta DreamATL vs WAS · 7:10PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
1.29assists
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+104at Novig
line 2.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.29
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.29 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: assumes 25.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.54%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
−1.7 pts
Books priced
0
Minutes
25.6
+1.04uSettled at +104 at Novig · graded from the box score.
WASWashington MysticsWAS vs ATL · 7:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
2.73assists
68% range0.1to5.4line 3.5?
Strong lean to the under 3.5-148at DraftKings
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 2.73
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.1–5.4 · no game history on this row6
61.5%
Our chance?
0.1–5.4
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.73 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.77 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.5%.Risk: assumes 23.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+0.90%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Books priced
6
Minutes
23.4
Opened
3.5 -162
CLV vs close
+1.26 pts
−1.00uSettled at -148 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.26 pts.
ATLAtlanta DreamATL vs WAS · 7:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
5.9assists
68% range0.0to16.0line 7.5?
Solid lean to the under 7.5+100at Novig
LINE 7.5
← under pays
proj 5.9
✗ actual 11
0model band 0.0–16.0 · no game history on this row17
56.2%
Our chance?
0.0–16.0
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 7.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 5.94 assists against a line of 7.5 — 1.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±10.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.2%.Risk: assumes 29.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+2.24%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+6.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Books priced
9
Minutes
29.7
Opened
7.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
WASWashington MysticsWAS vs ATL · 7:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.32assists
68% range0.7to1.9line 1.5?
Strong lean to the under 1.5-158at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.32
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.7–1.9 · no game history on this row4
61.9%
Our chance?
0.7–1.9
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.32 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: assumes 27.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+2.60%
Break-even
61.2%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Books priced
5
Minutes
27.3
Opened
1.5 -174
CLV vs close
+0.30 pts
−1.00uSettled at -158 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.30 pts.
WASWashington MysticsWAS vs ATL · 7:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
7.2points
68% range0.0to22.5line 4.5?
Solid lean to the over 4.5+100at ProphetX
LINE 4.5
over pays →
proj 7.2
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–22.5 · no game history on this row24
57.1%
Our chance?
0.0–22.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the over 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 7.22 points against a line of 4.5 — 2.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±15.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.1%.Risk: assumes 20.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+14.11%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+7.1 pts
Books priced
8
Minutes
20.1
Opened
4.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.92 pts.
WASWashington MysticsWAS vs ATL · 7:10PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
1.57assists
68% range0.0to3.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5-106at Novig
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 1.57
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
50.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.57 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.07 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.7%.Risk: assumes 24.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.71%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
−0.8 pts
Books priced
1
Minutes
24.3
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -106 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATLAtlanta DreamATL vs WAS · 7:10PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
1.48assists
68% range1.0to2.0line 1.5?
Solid lean to the under 1.5-144at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
55.9%
Our chance?
1.0–2.0
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.48 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.9%.Risk: assumes 26.9 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.33%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
−3.1 pts
Books priced
0
Minutes
26.9
+0.69uSettled at -144 at Novig · graded from the box score.
ATLAtlanta DreamATL vs WAS · 7:10PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
3.4assists
68% range2.0to4.8line 3.5?
Slight lean to the under 3.5-146at FanDuel
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 3.4
✗ actual 4
0model band 2.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
54.0%
Our chance?
2.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 3.37 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.0%.Risk: assumes 32.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−9.03%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
−5.3 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
32.6
Opened
3.5 -136
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -146 at FanDuel · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WASWashington MysticsWAS vs ATL · 7:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
2.35assists
68% range0.0to4.8line 2.5?
Slight lean to the under 2.5-104at polymarket
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 2.35
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.35 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.3%.Risk: assumes 30.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+2.67%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
30.6
Opened
2.5 -127
CLV vs close
+0.94 pts
+0.96uSettled at -104 at polymarket · graded from the box score · CLV +0.94 pts.
WASWashington MysticsWAS vs ATL · 7:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
3.5assists
68% range0.0to7.2line 4.5?
Strong lean to the under 4.5-124at DraftKings
LINE 4.5
← under pays
proj 3.5
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–7.2 · no game history on this row8
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–7.2
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 3.51 assists against a line of 4.5 — 0.99 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.6%.Risk: assumes 31.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+10.28%
Break-even
55.4%
Edge vs BE
+5.2 pts
Kalshi ask
6¢
Books priced
9
Minutes
31.1
Opened
4.5 -124
CLV vs close
−0.40 pts
+0.81uSettled at -124 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.40 pts.
