19 tracked MLB positions Wednesday · Sep 30 · 302 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 321 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.32rbis
68% range0.1to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-375at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
0model band 0.1–0.6 · no game history on this row1
78.0%
Our chance?
0.1–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 78.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.21%
Break-even
78.9%
Edge vs BE
−1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
78¢
Opened
0.5 -320
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.00home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-2800at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.00
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.00 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 94¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.61%
Break-even
96.6%
Edge vs BE
−1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
94¢
Opened
0.5 -2000
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
2.20total bases
68% range0.0to6.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.20
0model band 0.0–6.8 · no game history on this row7
56.0%
Our chance?
0.0–6.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.70 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.98%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
−2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -127
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.10home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-1400at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.10
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
92.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.10 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 92.3%.Risk: an exchange is asking 91¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.15%
Break-even
93.3%
Edge vs BE
−1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
91¢
Opened
0.5 -1100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.54rbis
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-240at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
68.7%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.7%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 31.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 68.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.72%
Break-even
70.6%
Edge vs BE
−1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.03home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-1667at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.03
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
94.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.03 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 94.3%.Risk: an exchange is asking 91¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.06%
Break-even
94.3%
Edge vs BE
−0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
91¢
Opened
0.5 -1400
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
16.5outs recorded
68% range1.6to31.4line 14.5?
Slight lean to the over 14.5+136at ProphetX
line 15.5 → 14.5
LINE 14.5
over pays →
proj 16.5
0model band 1.6–31.4 · no game history on this row34
44.7%
Our chance?
1.6–31.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 14.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 16.50 outs recorded against a line of 14.5 — 2.00 to the over side, inside a band of ±14.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+5.40%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
35¢
Opened
15.5 +127
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to5.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
0model band 0.0–5.6 · no game history on this row6
54.4%
Our chance?
0.0–5.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.10%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
−0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.14home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-1200at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.14
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
90.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.14 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 90.4%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.08%
Break-even
92.3%
Edge vs BE
−1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
89¢
Opened
0.5 -1200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.72total bases
68% range0.0to7.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ESPN BET
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.72
0model band 0.0–7.6 · no game history on this row8
58.2%
Our chance?
0.0–7.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.72 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.22 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.97%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
−1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.11home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-2800at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.11
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.11 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 94¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.61%
Break-even
96.6%
Edge vs BE
−1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
94¢
Opened
0.5 -2500
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
4.7strikeouts
68% range0.0to10.1line 4.5?
Slight lean to the over 4.5-104at Novig
line 5.5 → 4.5
LINE 4.5
over pays →
proj 4.7
0model band 0.0–10.1 · no game history on this row11
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–10.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.74 strikeouts against a line of 4.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+1.59%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
5.5 -115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
2.13total bases
68% range0.0to4.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-177at DraftKings
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.13
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
61.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.63 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 38.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 61.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.36%
Break-even
63.9%
Edge vs BE
−2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
−2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.11home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-2000at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.11
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
93.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.11 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 93.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.31%
Break-even
95.2%
Edge vs BE
−2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
90¢
Opened
0.5 -1600
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.23hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.23
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
64.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.4%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.93%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
−0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.26hits
68% range0.0to4.2line 1?
Slight lean to the under 1—at —
line 0.5 → 1
LINE 1
← under pays
proj 1.26
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
53.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.26 hits against a line of 1 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -250
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.02home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-4000at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.02
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.02 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 95¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.63%
Break-even
97.6%
Edge vs BE
−2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
95¢
Opened
0.5 -3500
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.49total bases
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at ESPN BET
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.49
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
61.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.99 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.85%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
−2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to8.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
0model band 0.0–8.0 · no game history on this row9
52.1%
Our chance?
0.0–8.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -194
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.07home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-1329at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.07
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
92.8%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.07 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 92.8%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.20%
Break-even
93.0%
Edge vs BE
−0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
90¢
Opened
0.5 -1600
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.20rbis
68% range0.0to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-337at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.20
0model band 0.0–0.6 · no game history on this row1
77.9%
Our chance?
0.0–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.20 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 77.9%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+1.05%
Break-even
77.1%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
78¢
Opened
0.5 -375
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:05PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.23hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.23
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
65.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.7%.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:05PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
62.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+3.32 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:05PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+106at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+0.48 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:05PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to19.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+102at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
0model band 0.0–19.9 · no game history on this row21
51.1%
Our chance?
0.0–19.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±18.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:05PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
2.34total bases
68% range0.0to15.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-104at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.34
0model band 0.0–15.0 · no game history on this row16
52.6%
Our chance?
0.0–15.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.84 to the under side, inside a band of ±12.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -125
CLV vs close
+1.40 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:05PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.11home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.11
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
90.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.11 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 90.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -2800
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:05PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.99total bases
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5—at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.99
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
50.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.0%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 31.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -140
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:00PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.31rbis
68% range0.1to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
0model band 0.1–0.6 · no game history on this row1
77.7%
Our chance?
0.1–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 77.7%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -350
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:00PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.40rbis
68% range0.3to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-375at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
0model band 0.3–0.5 · no game history on this row1
78.8%
Our chance?
0.3–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is a modest separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 78.8%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.12%
Break-even
78.9%
Edge vs BE
−0.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -447
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:00PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.37rbis
68% range0.2to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-500at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
0model band 0.2–0.5 · no game history on this row1
77.5%
Our chance?
0.2–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 77.5%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−7.04%
Break-even
83.3%
Edge vs BE
−5.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -450
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−3.05 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
16.2outs recorded
68% range14.2to18.2line 16.5?
Slight lean to the under 16.5+124at ProphetX
LINE 16.5
← under pays
proj 16.2
0model band 14.2–18.2 · no game history on this row20
44.8%
Our chance?
14.2–18.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 16.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 16.24 outs recorded against a line of 16.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+0.37%
Break-even
44.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
16.5 +132
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
57.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.88%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+4.44 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
17.9outs recorded
68% range0.0to40.9line 14.5?
Slight lean to the over 14.5-120at FanDuel
LINE 14.5
over pays →
proj 17.9
0model band 0.0–40.9 · no game history on this row44
55.9%
Our chance?
0.0–40.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 14.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 17.91 outs recorded against a line of 14.5 — 3.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±23.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+2.46%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
14.5 -155
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
64.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.3%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.40%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
−0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
62.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+0.41%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
65.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.4%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.24%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
−0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-153at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.49%
Break-even
60.5%
Edge vs BE
−0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.10home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-1000at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.10
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
89.8%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.10 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 89.8%.Risk: an exchange is asking 92¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.28%
Break-even
90.9%
Edge vs BE
−1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
92¢
Opened
0.5 -1100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.13home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-1430at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.13
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
89.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.13 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 89.4%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.37%
Break-even
93.5%
Edge vs BE
−4.1 pts
Kalshi ask
84¢
Opened
0.5 -800
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.10home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-809at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.10
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
89.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.10 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 89.5%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+0.51%
Break-even
89.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
88¢
Opened
0.5 -1000
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.11home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-2500at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.11
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.11 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 92¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.21%
Break-even
96.2%
Edge vs BE
−1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
92¢
Opened
0.5 -2000
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-153at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.45%
Break-even
60.5%
Edge vs BE
−2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -148
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.26rbis
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-360at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.26
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
80.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.26 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a modest separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 80.2%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+2.49%
Break-even
78.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
80¢
Opened
0.5 -400
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.84total bases
68% range0.0to8.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.84
0model band 0.0–8.3 · no game history on this row9
58.2%
Our chance?
0.0–8.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.84 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.00%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
−1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.07home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-4000at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.07
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.07 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 95¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.63%
Break-even
97.6%
Edge vs BE
−2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
95¢
Opened
0.5 -3500
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+118at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
48.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.60%
Break-even
45.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +111
CLV vs close
+2.21 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:15PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
56.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.50%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -134
CLV vs close
+4.32 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.