WNBA — Tuesday · Sep 29 · append-only record · no ROI claims
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Today · StatIQ Sports
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WNBA tracked record12–1224 graded · 50.0% hit · −6.9% ROIThis is the live post-restart record only — an earlier WNBA season was lost and is shown separately, never added in.
12 tracked WNBA positions Tuesday · Sep 29 · 101 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 113 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
NYNew York LibertyNY vs MIN · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
3.4assists
68% range2.2to4.6line 3.5?
Slight lean to the under 3.5+110at FanDuel
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 3.4
✗ actual 4
0model band 2.2–4.6 · no game history on this row5
47.7%
Our chance?
2.2–4.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 3.43 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.7%.Risk: assumes 34.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.98%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
34.2
Opened
3.5 -117
CLV vs close
−1.32 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at FanDuel · graded from the box score · CLV −1.32 pts.
MINMinnesota LynxMIN vs NY · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
4.6assists
68% range3.7to5.5line 4.5?
Slight lean to the over 4.5+134at ProphetX
LINE 4.5
over pays →
proj 4.6
✓ actual 5
0model band 3.7–5.5 · no game history on this row6
44.4%
Our chance?
3.7–5.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.63 assists against a line of 4.5 — 0.13 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.4%.Risk: assumes 29.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.94%
Break-even
42.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Books priced
5
Minutes
29.7
Opened
4.5 +122
CLV vs close
+3.99 pts
+1.34uSettled at +134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.99 pts.
NYNew York LibertyNY vs MIN · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.85assists
68% range0.0to3.9line 2.5?
Strong lean to the under 2.5-129at DraftKings
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 1.85
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
62.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.85 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.65 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.7%.Risk: assumes 26.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+13.24%
Break-even
56.3%
Edge vs BE
+6.4 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Books priced
6
Minutes
26.8
Opened
2.5 -129
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
+0.78uSettled at -129 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
MINMinnesota LynxMIN vs NY · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
2.76assists
68% range0.7to4.9line 2.5?
Slight lean to the over 2.5+120at BetRivers
LINE 2.5
over pays →
proj 2.76
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.7–4.9 · no game history on this row5
45.0%
Our chance?
0.7–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.76 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.0%.Risk: assumes 31.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
−0.01%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
−0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
31.1
Opened
2.5 +117
CLV vs close
+0.84 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +0.84 pts.
NYNew York LibertyNY vs MIN · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
2.08assists
68% range0.1to4.0line 2.5?
Solid lean to the under 2.5-144at Novig
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 2.08
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–4.0 · no game history on this row4
58.5%
Our chance?
0.1–4.0
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.08 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.5%.Risk: assumes 29.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+2.19%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
−0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Books priced
2
Minutes
29.2
Opened
2.5 -156
CLV vs close
−1.39 pts
+0.69uSettled at -144 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −1.39 pts.
NYNew York LibertyNY vs MIN · 8:40PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
1.24assists
68% range0.1to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5—at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.24
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–2.4 · no game history on this row3
50.0%
Our chance?
0.1–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 assists against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one.Risk: assumes 13.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Books priced
0
Minutes
13.3
−1.00uSettled at — · graded from the box score.
MINMinnesota LynxMIN vs NY · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
2.49assists
68% range0.8to4.2line 2.5?
Slight lean to the under 2.5+104at FanDuel
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 2.49
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.8–4.2 · no game history on this row5
49.3%
Our chance?
0.8–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.49 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: assumes 30.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.91%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Books priced
6
Minutes
30.3
Opened
2.5 -105
CLV vs close
−2.07 pts
+1.04uSettled at +104 at FanDuel · graded from the box score · CLV −2.07 pts.
MINMinnesota LynxMIN vs NY · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
2.31assists
68% range0.0to6.0line 3.5?
Strong lean to the under 3.5-161at DraftKings
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 2.31
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row7
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.31 assists against a line of 3.5 — 1.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: assumes 19.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+0.53%
Break-even
61.7%
Edge vs BE
+0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Books priced
5
Minutes
19.7
Opened
3.5 -180
CLV vs close
−0.90 pts
+0.62uSettled at -161 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.90 pts.
MINMinnesota LynxMIN vs NY · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
4.1assists
68% range0.0to24.8line 5.5?
Slight lean to the under 5.5+105at betPARX
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 4.1
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–24.8 · no game history on this row27
52.8%
Our chance?
0.0–24.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.07 assists against a line of 5.5 — 1.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±20.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.8%.Risk: assumes 30.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+10.80%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Books priced
6
Minutes
30.6
Opened
5.5 +117
CLV vs close
+0.48 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.48 pts.
NYNew York LibertyNY vs MIN · 8:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
3.0assists
68% range0.6to5.4line 3.5?
Solid lean to the under 3.5-125at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 3.0
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.6–5.4 · no game history on this row6
58.4%
Our chance?
0.6–5.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 3.00 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: assumes 25.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.99%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
25.8
Opened
3.5 -125
CLV vs close
−1.01 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −1.01 pts.
NYNew York LibertyNY vs MIN · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
3.7points
68% range1.9to5.5line 4?
Slight lean to the under 4-120at Novig
line 3.5 → 4
LINE 4
← under pays
proj 3.7
✓ actual 2
0model band 1.9–5.5 · no game history on this row6
56.3%
Our chance?
1.9–5.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 4. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 3.71 points against a line of 4 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.3%.Risk: assumes 13.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Books priced
1
Minutes
13.6
CLV vs close
−6.00 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −6.00 pts.
NYNew York LibertyNY vs MIN · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
4.1assists
68% range0.1to8.1line 5.5?
Strong lean to the under 5.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 4.1
✗ actual 7
0model band 0.1–8.1 · no game history on this row9
64.1%
Our chance?
0.1–8.1
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.06 assists against a line of 5.5 — 1.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.1%.Risk: assumes 28.9 minutes.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.36%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
28.9
Opened
5.5 -148
CLV vs close
−1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.67 pts.
NYNew York LibertyNY vs MIN · 8:40PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
4.8points
68% range0.0to10.4line 5.5?
Slight lean to the under 5.5—at —
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 4.8
✗ actual 6
0model band 0.0–10.4 · no game history on this row11
51.4%
Our chance?
0.0–10.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.84 points against a line of 5.5 — 0.66 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.4%.Risk: assumes 12.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Books priced
0
Minutes
12.7
−1.00uSettled at — · graded from the box score.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
2.00assists
68% range0.0to5.8line 3.5?
Strong lean to the under 3.5-147at Novig
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 2.00
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.8 · no game history on this row6
65.4%
Our chance?
0.0–5.8
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.00 assists against a line of 3.5 — 1.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.4%.Risk: assumes 24.5 minutes.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+11.85%
Break-even
59.5%
Edge vs BE
+5.9 pts
Books priced
8
Minutes
24.5
Opened
3.5 -147
CLV vs close
−0.16 pts
+0.68uSettled at -147 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.16 pts.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
2.69assists
68% range0.0to5.5line 3.5?
Strong lean to the under 3.5-140at DraftKings
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 2.69
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–5.5 · no game history on this row6
61.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.5
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.69 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.81 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.2%.Risk: assumes 29.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
29.5
Opened
3.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
8.3assists
68% range2.8to13.9line 9.5?
Solid lean to the under 9.5-124at ProphetX
LINE 9.5
← under pays
proj 8.3
✗ actual 15
0model band 2.8–13.9 · no game history on this row16
58.3%
Our chance?
2.8–13.9
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 9.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 8.34 assists against a line of 9.5 — 1.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.3%.Risk: assumes 32.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
−0.08%
Break-even
55.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Books priced
6
Minutes
32.5
Opened
9.5 -139
CLV vs close
+3.83 pts
−1.00uSettled at -124 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.83 pts.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
5.5assists
68% range3.8to7.1line 6.5?
Slight lean to the under 6.5+100at polymarket
LINE 6.5
← under pays
proj 5.5
✗ actual 7
0model band 3.8–7.1 · no game history on this row8
50.7%
Our chance?
3.8–7.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 6.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 5.45 assists against a line of 6.5 — 1.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.7%.Risk: assumes 23.8 minutes.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 73.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+1.36%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Books priced
9
Minutes
23.8
Opened
6.5 -115
CLV vs close
+2.83 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at polymarket · graded from the box score · CLV +2.83 pts.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
4.4points
68% range0.0to10.4line 5.5?
Solid lean to the under 5.5-123at DraftKings
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 4.4
✗ actual 9
0model band 0.0–10.4 · no game history on this row11
57.4%
Our chance?
0.0–10.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.39 points against a line of 5.5 — 1.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.4%.Risk: first game back after 71 days — minutes may be limited · assumes 10.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.37%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Books priced
5
Minutes
10.3
Opened
5.5 -126
CLV vs close
−1.24 pts
−1.00uSettled at -123 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.24 pts.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
4.8assists
68% range0.0to18.8line 6.5?
Slight lean to the under 6.5-102at Novig
LINE 6.5
← under pays
proj 4.8
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.0–18.8 · no game history on this row20
54.8%
Our chance?
0.0–18.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 6.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.82 assists against a line of 6.5 — 1.68 to the under side, inside a band of ±14.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.8%.Risk: assumes 23.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+9.55%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Books priced
9
Minutes
23.6
Opened
6.5 -102
CLV vs close
−0.50 pts
+0.98uSettled at -102 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.50 pts.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
6.0points
68% range0.0to19.1line 8.5?
Solid lean to the under 8.5-111at Novig
LINE 8.5
← under pays
proj 6.0
✓ actual 8
0model band 0.0–19.1 · no game history on this row21
57.5%
Our chance?
0.0–19.1
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 8.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 6.05 points against a line of 8.5 — 2.45 to the under side, inside a band of ±13.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.5%.Risk: assumes 19.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+9.23%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+4.9 pts
Books priced
6
Minutes
19.8
Opened
8.5 -111
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.90uSettled at -111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
2.95assists
68% range1.0to4.9line 2.5?
Solid lean to the over 2.5-144at polymarket
LINE 2.5
over pays →
proj 2.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 1.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
59.2%
Our chance?
1.0–4.9
68% range?
Solid lean to the over 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.95 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.2%.Risk: assumes 31.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+0.39%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
31.1
Opened
2.5 -144
CLV vs close
+0.82 pts
−1.00uSettled at -144 at polymarket · graded from the box score · CLV +0.82 pts.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
4.0points
68% range0.4to7.7line 4.5?
Solid lean to the under 4.5-121at DraftKings
LINE 4.5
← under pays
proj 4.0
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.4–7.7 · no game history on this row8
55.0%
Our chance?
0.4–7.7
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.04 points against a line of 4.5 — 0.46 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.0%.Risk: assumes 15.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+0.51%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Books priced
5
Minutes
15.8
Opened
4.5 -125
CLV vs close
−0.21 pts
+0.83uSettled at -121 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.21 pts.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 6:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
6.9points
68% range3.8to10.0line 6.5?
Slight lean to the over 6.5+110at ProphetX
LINE 6.5
over pays →
proj 6.9
✗ actual 6
0model band 3.8–10.0 · no game history on this row11
45.0%
Our chance?
3.8–10.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 6.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 6.89 points against a line of 6.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.0%.Risk: assumes 23.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.08%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
−2.6 pts
Books priced
4
Minutes
23.2
Opened
6.5 -102
CLV vs close
−6.64 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −6.64 pts.
INDIndiana FeverIND vs LV · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
6.7points
68% range4.1to9.2line 6.5?
Slight lean to the over 6.5+111at Novig
LINE 6.5
over pays →
proj 6.7
✗ actual 4
0model band 4.1–9.2 · no game history on this row10
47.2%
Our chance?
4.1–9.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 6.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 6.68 points against a line of 6.5 — 0.18 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.2%.Risk: assumes 24.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
−0.45%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
−0.2 pts
Books priced
6
Minutes
24.4
Opened
6.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.87 pts
−1.00uSettled at +111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.87 pts.
LVLas Vegas AcesLV vs IND · 6:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
3.4points
68% range0.0to9.0line 5.5?
Strong lean to the under 5.5-111at DraftKings
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 3.4
✗ actual 9
0model band 0.0–9.0 · no game history on this row10
64.7%
Our chance?
0.0–9.0
68% range?
Strong lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 3.37 points against a line of 5.5 — 2.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.7%.Risk: assumes 13.1 minutes.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+20.01%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+12.1 pts
Books priced
7
Minutes
13.1
Opened
5.5 -118
CLV vs close
−1.63 pts
−1.00uSettled at -111 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.63 pts.
