18 tracked MLB positions Tuesday · Sep 29 · 306 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 324 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
4.9strikeouts
68% range1.0to8.8line 4.5?
Slight lean to the over 4.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 4.5
over pays →
proj 4.9
0model band 1.0–8.8 · no game history on this row10
46.2%
Our chance?
1.0–8.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.87 strikeouts against a line of 4.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+1.73%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
4.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.29rbis
68% range0.0to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-280at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.29
0model band 0.0–0.6 · no game history on this row1
76.1%
Our chance?
0.0–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.29 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 76.1%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
73.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
78¢
Opened
0.5 -325
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+108at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
−1.57 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.44rbis
68% range0.3to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5—at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
0model band 0.3–0.5 · no game history on this row1
71.6%
Our chance?
0.3–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 71.6%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -350
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -148
CLV vs close
+0.78 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.15home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-809at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.15
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
89.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.15 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 89.6%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+0.70%
Break-even
89.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
90¢
Opened
0.5 -900
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
2.13total bases
68% range0.2to4.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.13
0model band 0.2–4.1 · no game history on this row4
62.7%
Our chance?
0.2–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.63 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 37.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 62.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.30%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
−2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
87¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.15home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-900at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.15
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
89.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.15 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 89.5%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.59%
Break-even
90.0%
Edge vs BE
−0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
89¢
Opened
0.5 -800
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.03home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-2500at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.03
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.03 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 93¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.20%
Break-even
96.2%
Edge vs BE
−1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
93¢
Opened
0.5 -2000
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.13home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-880at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.13
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
91.1%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.13 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 91.1%.Risk: an exchange is asking 93¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+1.43%
Break-even
89.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
93¢
Opened
0.5 -1200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.13home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-1400at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.13
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
92.9%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.13 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 92.9%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.44%
Break-even
93.3%
Edge vs BE
−0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
88¢
Opened
0.5 -1400
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.24home runs
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-700at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.24
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
85.8%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.24 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 85.8%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.95%
Break-even
87.5%
Edge vs BE
−1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
88¢
Opened
0.5 -710
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.26hits
68% range0.7to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-230at DraftKings
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.26
0model band 0.7–1.8 · no game history on this row2
68.0%
Our chance?
0.7–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.26 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.41%
Break-even
69.7%
Edge vs BE
−1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.23hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.23
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
65.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.4%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.21%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
−0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.56total bases
68% range0.0to39.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-106at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.56
0model band 0.0–39.3 · no game history on this row42
51.1%
Our chance?
0.0–39.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.56 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.06 to the over side, inside a band of ±37.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.65%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
−0.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -106
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.07home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-2000at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.07
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
94.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.07 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 94.3%.Risk: an exchange is asking 93¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.03%
Break-even
95.2%
Edge vs BE
−1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
93¢
Opened
0.5 -2500
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.46rbis
68% range0.4to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-353at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
0model band 0.4–0.5 · no game history on this row1
75.9%
Our chance?
0.4–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 75.9%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.53%
Break-even
77.9%
Edge vs BE
−2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
77¢
Opened
0.5 -400
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
2.20total bases
68% range0.0to6.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-133at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.20
0model band 0.0–6.7 · no game history on this row7
56.1%
Our chance?
0.0–6.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.70 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.65%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
−0.9 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -138
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.06home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-3335at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.06
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.06 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 92¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.15%
Break-even
97.1%
Edge vs BE
−2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
92¢
Opened
0.5 -3500
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.31rbis
68% range0.1to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
0model band 0.1–0.6 · no game history on this row1
77.7%
Our chance?
0.1–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 77.7%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -397
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.0to6.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
0model band 0.0–6.9 · no game history on this row7
53.9%
Our chance?
0.0–6.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-145at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
57.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.55%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
−2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
17.6outs recorded
68% range0.0to64.8line 13.5?
Slight lean to the over 13.5-107at ProphetX
LINE 13.5
over pays →
proj 17.6
0model band 0.0–64.8 · no game history on this row69
53.4%
Our chance?
0.0–64.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 13.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 17.59 outs recorded against a line of 13.5 — 4.09 to the over side, inside a band of ±47.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
51.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
13.5 -115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SD · 10:00PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.41total bases
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5—at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.41
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
61.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.41 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.91 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -450
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.52rbis
68% range0.5to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-375at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
0model band 0.5–0.5 · no game history on this row1
78.4%
Our chance?
0.5–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 78.4%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 21.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 78.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.69%
Break-even
78.9%
Edge vs BE
−0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
81¢
Opened
0.5 -295
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.67%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
−2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -103
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.16home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-809at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.16
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
88.1%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.16 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 88.1%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.95%
Break-even
89.0%
Edge vs BE
−0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
88¢
Opened
0.5 -700
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.44rbis
68% range0.4to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-400at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
0model band 0.4–0.5 · no game history on this row1
78.5%
Our chance?
0.4–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 78.5%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.86%
Break-even
80.0%
Edge vs BE
−1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
81¢
Opened
0.5 -350
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.44total bases
68% range0.2to2.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the over 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.44
0model band 0.2–2.6 · no game history on this row3
49.4%
Our chance?
0.2–2.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.94 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 49.4%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 78.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.22%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
−0.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.10home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-900at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.10
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
89.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.10 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 89.5%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.56%
Break-even
90.0%
Edge vs BE
−0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
89¢
Opened
0.5 -770
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.12total bases
68% range0.0to4.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.12
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
43.6%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.17%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
−1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.13home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-2000at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.13
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
93.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.13 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 93.4%.Risk: an exchange is asking 93¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.93%
Break-even
95.2%
Edge vs BE
−1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
93¢
Opened
0.5 -1600
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.05home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-2000at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.05
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
94.9%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.05 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 94.9%.Risk: an exchange is asking 93¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.36%
Break-even
95.2%
Edge vs BE
−0.3 pts
Kalshi ask
93¢
Opened
0.5 -2000
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.25rbis
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-450at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
83.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a modest separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 83.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+1.51%
Break-even
81.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
83¢
Opened
0.5 -450
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.67total bases
68% range0.0to8.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.67
0model band 0.0–8.1 · no game history on this row9
57.2%
Our chance?
0.0–8.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.67 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.17 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.93%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
−1.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.12home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-1400at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.12
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
91.7%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.12 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 91.7%.Risk: an exchange is asking 91¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.72%
Break-even
93.3%
Edge vs BE
−1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
91¢
Opened
0.5 -960
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-177at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.63%
Break-even
63.9%
Edge vs BE
−1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.05home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-2500at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.05
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.05 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 94¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.20%
Break-even
96.2%
Edge vs BE
−1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
94¢
Opened
0.5 -2500
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.11home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-1900at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.11
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
94.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.11 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 94.6%.Risk: an exchange is asking 93¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.42%
Break-even
95.0%
Edge vs BE
−0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
93¢
Opened
0.5 -2500
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.61rbis
68% range0.4to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-280at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
0model band 0.4–0.8 · no game history on this row1
71.6%
Our chance?
0.4–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 71.6%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 28.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 71.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.84%
Break-even
73.7%
Edge vs BE
−2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
0.5 -260
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.28total bases
68% range0.0to22.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.28
0model band 0.0–22.7 · no game history on this row24
51.4%
Our chance?
0.0–22.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.78 to the over side, inside a band of ±21.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.68%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
−3.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
17.8outs recorded
68% range15.3to20.4line 17.5?
Slight lean to the over 17.5-144at FanDuel
LINE 17.5
over pays →
proj 17.8
0model band 15.3–20.4 · no game history on this row22
55.3%
Our chance?
15.3–20.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 17.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 17.84 outs recorded against a line of 17.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.31%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
−3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
17.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.84total bases
68% range0.0to12.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.84
0model band 0.0–12.6 · no game history on this row14
55.0%
Our chance?
0.0–12.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.84 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 1.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±10.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.76%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
−1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:20PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
7.1strikeouts
68% range1.7to12.4line 6.5?
Slight lean to the over 6.5-114at ProphetX
LINE 6.5
over pays →
proj 7.1
0model band 1.7–12.4 · no game history on this row13
54.2%
Our chance?
1.7–12.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 6.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 7.07 strikeouts against a line of 6.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+1.82%
Break-even
53.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
6.5 -142
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to17.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+111at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
0model band 0.0–17.5 · no game history on this row19
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–17.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±16.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+2.61 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
58.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
56.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
+3.54 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -118
CLV vs close
+3.53 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.31total bases
68% range0.0to20.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-365at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.31
0model band 0.0–20.0 · no game history on this row21
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–20.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.81 to the over side, inside a band of ±18.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
78.5%
Edge vs BE
−26.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.94total bases
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
50.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.3%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 32.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ NYY · 8:10PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.08home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-3500at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.08
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
92.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.08 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 92.2%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.22%
Break-even
97.2%
Edge vs BE
−5.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -2800
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.