66 tracked MLB positions Sunday · Sep 27 · 1343 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 1409 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
17.1outs recorded
68% range7.6to26.7line 15.5?
Slight lean to the over 15.5+129at DraftKings
LINE 15.5
over pays →
proj 17.1
0model band 7.6–26.7 · no game history on this row29
43.1%
Our chance?
7.6–26.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 15.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 17.15 outs recorded against a line of 15.5 — 1.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±9.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.21%
Break-even
43.7%
Edge vs BE
−0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
15.5 +125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
13.5outs recorded
68% range0.0to31.5line 14.5?
Slight lean to the under 14.5-121at DraftKings
LINE 14.5
← under pays
proj 13.5
0model band 0.0–31.5 · no game history on this row34
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–31.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 14.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 13.49 outs recorded against a line of 14.5 — 1.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±18.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.59%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
−2.5 pts
Opened
14.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-193at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
62.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.59%
Break-even
65.9%
Edge vs BE
−3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-144at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.91%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
−3.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -134
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-195at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.01
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.51 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.21%
Break-even
66.1%
Edge vs BE
−4.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
44.7%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.00%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
−1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-220at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.5%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.20%
Break-even
68.8%
Edge vs BE
−4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
2.46total bases
68% range0.0to6.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the over 1.5+137at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
over pays →
proj 2.46
0model band 0.0–6.5 · no game history on this row7
40.6%
Our chance?
0.0–6.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.46 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.96 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 40.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.75%
Break-even
42.2%
Edge vs BE
−1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
1.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
57.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.09%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+4.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -172
CLV vs close
+4.33 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-141at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row5
55.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.65%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
−3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-130at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
53.7%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.96%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
−2.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -124
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+114at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
44.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.09%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
−2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
58.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -137
CLV vs close
+5.51 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-125at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.91%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
−3.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
61.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.07%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
−3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-163at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
58.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.18%
Break-even
62.0%
Edge vs BE
−3.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -161
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to5.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-106at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
0model band 0.0–5.4 · no game history on this row6
48.3%
Our chance?
0.0–5.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.11%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
−3.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -111
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-208at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.84%
Break-even
67.5%
Edge vs BE
−4.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.57total bases
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5—at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
53.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -450
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to9.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5—at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
0model band 0.0–9.1 · no game history on this row10
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–9.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -300
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ NYY · 4:30PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-126at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
53.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.36%
Break-even
55.8%
Edge vs BE
−1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
STL @ MIL · 3:15PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
3.2strikeouts
68% range1.4to5.0line 3.5?
Slight lean to the under 3.5-144at DraftKings
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 3.2
✗ actual 4
0model band 1.4–5.0 · no game history on this row5
57.0%
Our chance?
1.4–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 3.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 3.19 strikeouts against a line of 3.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.48%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
−2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
3.5 +127
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -144 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ MIL · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
1.41total bases
68% range1.1to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.41
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.1–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.2%
Our chance?
1.1–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.41 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.66%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
−1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -176
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ MIL · 3:15PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
1.15hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 1?
Slight lean to the under 1—at —
line 1.5 → 1
LINE 1
← under pays
proj 1.15
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
54.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 hits against a line of 1 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -275
−1.00uSettled at — · graded from the box score.
STL @ MIL · 3:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
59.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -175
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
STL @ MIL · 3:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.80total bases
68% range0.7to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5—at —
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.80
0model band 0.7–2.9 · no game history on this row3
61.1%
Our chance?
0.7–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.80 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 38.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 61.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -198
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.38rbis
68% range0.2to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-260at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.6 · no game history on this row1
71.7%
Our chance?
0.2–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 71.7%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.68%
Break-even
72.2%
Edge vs BE
−0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -245
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.38uSettled at -260 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ MIL · 3:15PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
53.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+0.32%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ MIL · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-148at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
58.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.76%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
−1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -139
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.68uSettled at -148 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ MIL · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
61.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+0.04%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ MIL · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.05%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
−0.7 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.4to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-220at Hard Rock Bet
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–2.0 · no game history on this row2
64.6%
Our chance?
0.4–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.6%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.09%
Break-even
68.8%
Edge vs BE
−4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.45uSettled at -220 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ MIL · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
58.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.24%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
−2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at ESPN BET
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
62.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.18%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
−2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.11home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-950at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.11
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
89.7%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.11 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 89.7%.Risk: an exchange is asking 91¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.82%
Break-even
90.5%
Edge vs BE
−0.7 pts
Kalshi ask
91¢
Opened
0.5 -3900
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.10uSettled at -950 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.26home runs
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-380at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.26
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
80.1%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.26 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a modest separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 80.1%.Risk: an exchange is asking 92¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+1.22%
Break-even
79.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
92¢
Opened
0.5 -590
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.26uSettled at -380 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.15home runs
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-475at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.15
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
86.8%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.15 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 86.8%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
82.6%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -1567
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.15home runs
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-530at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.15
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
86.8%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.15 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 86.8%.Risk: an exchange is asking 92¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
84.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
92¢
Opened
0.5 -2400
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
1.22hits
68% range0.7to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-246at DraftKings
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.22
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.7–1.8 · no game history on this row2
68.9%
Our chance?
0.7–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.9%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.15%
Break-even
71.1%
Edge vs BE
−2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
1 -230
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.41uSettled at -246 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.08home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-1100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.08
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
90.9%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.08 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 90.9%.Risk: an exchange is asking 91¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.86%
Break-even
91.7%
Edge vs BE
−0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
91¢
Opened
0.5 -1200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.09uSettled at -1100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.07home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-2000at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.07
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
93.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.07 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 93.4%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
95.2%
Edge vs BE
−1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -1600
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.11home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.11
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
90.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.11 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 90.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -1600
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
0.03home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-2000at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.03
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.03 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 95¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.25%
Break-even
95.2%
Edge vs BE
−0.2 pts
Kalshi ask
95¢
Opened
0.5 -2500
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -2000 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.17home runs
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-525at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.17
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
86.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.17 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 86.3%.Risk: an exchange is asking 92¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+2.73%
Break-even
84.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
92¢
Opened
0.5 -800
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.19uSettled at -525 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
63.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -230
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-176at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
50.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
63.8%
Edge vs BE
−13.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
53.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -144
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ MIA · 3:15PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46rbis
68% range0.4to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-250at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.5 · no game history on this row1
70.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.3%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.65%
Break-even
71.4%
Edge vs BE
−1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -250 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ MIL · 3:15PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.01home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-5000at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.01
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.01 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.10%
Break-even
98.0%
Edge vs BE
−3.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -5000
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.02uSettled at -5000 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ MIL · 3:15PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.09home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5—at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.09
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
91.7%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.09 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 91.7%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Opened
0.5 -2000
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.