47 tracked MLB positions Saturday · Sep 26 · 1114 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 1161 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
12.1outs recorded
68% range7.6to16.7line 12.5?
Slight lean to the under 12.5-135at DraftKings
line 14.5 → 12.5
LINE 12.5
← under pays
proj 12.1
✓ actual 9
0model band 7.6–16.7 · no game history on this row18
53.2%
Our chance?
7.6–16.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 12.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 12.14 outs recorded against a line of 12.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−7.43%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
−4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
14.5 +105
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
59.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.41%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
−4.1 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -550
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
46.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.25%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
−1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 -570
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-110at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.67%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
−3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -151
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
55.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.97%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
−4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -550
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to7.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at DraftKings
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.81
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–7.1 · no game history on this row8
54.4%
Our chance?
0.0–7.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.69 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.12%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
−1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -550
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to7.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+115at DraftKings
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–7.5 · no game history on this row8
46.6%
Our chance?
0.0–7.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+0.17%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -550
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.98%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
−2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -570
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
54.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.16%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
−3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -550
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to6.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.9 · no game history on this row7
51.5%
Our chance?
0.0–6.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−7.21%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
−4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -550
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-215at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.01
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
63.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.51 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.9%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.35%
Break-even
68.3%
Edge vs BE
−4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -550
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -215 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.55%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
−1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -570
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
45.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.62%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
−2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -570
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to6.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at DraftKings
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–6.4 · no game history on this row7
55.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.84 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.29%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
−0.7 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
56.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−7.53%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
−4.6 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -550
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to6.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–6.1 · no game history on this row7
48.9%
Our chance?
0.0–6.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.65%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
−3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.78hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-185at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.78
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−7.21%
Break-even
64.9%
Edge vs BE
−4.7 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -550
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.54uSettled at -185 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ PHI · 10:50PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.18rbis
68% range0.0to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-450at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.18
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.6 · no game history on this row1
77.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.18 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 77.3%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.56%
Break-even
81.8%
Edge vs BE
−4.5 pts
Kalshi ask
79¢
Opened
0.5 -350
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.22uSettled at -450 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
4.6strikeouts
68% range4.0to5.2line 4.5?
Slight lean to the under 4.5-126at DraftKings
LINE 4.5
← under pays
proj 4.6
✓ actual 3
0model band 4.0–5.2 · no game history on this row6
54.7%
Our chance?
4.0–5.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 4.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.57 strikeouts against a line of 4.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.87%
Break-even
55.8%
Edge vs BE
−1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
4.5 -146
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.79uSettled at -126 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
4.6strikeouts
68% range0.0to13.8line 5.5?
Slight lean to the under 5.5+114at FanDuel
line 6 → 5.5
LINE 5.5
← under pays
proj 4.6
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–13.8 · no game history on this row15
46.2%
Our chance?
0.0–13.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 5.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 4.63 strikeouts against a line of 5.5 — 0.87 to the under side, inside a band of ±9.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.05%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
−0.5 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
6 +138
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.14uSettled at +114 at FanDuel · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.01home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-5000at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.01
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.01 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
98.0%
Edge vs BE
−3.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -1900
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.02uSettled at -5000 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.68rbis
68% range0.4to1.0line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-295at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–1.0 · no game history on this row1
72.6%
Our chance?
0.4–1.0
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 rbis against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 72.6%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 27.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 72.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.74%
Break-even
74.7%
Edge vs BE
−2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
74¢
Opened
0.5 -280
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.34uSettled at -295 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
1.04total bases
68% range0.0to7.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-123at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–7.0 · no game history on this row8
53.6%
Our chance?
0.0–7.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.84%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
−1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.80uSettled at -123 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
1.21total bases
68% range0.0to8.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–8.1 · no game history on this row9
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–8.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.63%
Break-even
56.1%
Edge vs BE
−2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at betPARX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.0%.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
80¢
Opened
1.5 -215
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.11home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-900at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.11
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
88.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.11 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 88.5%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.62%
Break-even
90.0%
Edge vs BE
−1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
87¢
Opened
0.5 -1000
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.11uSettled at -900 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.12home runs
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-1600at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.12
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
92.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.12 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 92.4%.Risk: an exchange is asking 92¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.87%
Break-even
94.1%
Edge vs BE
−1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
92¢
Opened
0.5 -1400
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.06uSettled at -1600 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.03home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-2000at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.03
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
94.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.03 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 94.3%.Risk: an exchange is asking 92¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.02%
Break-even
95.2%
Edge vs BE
−1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
92¢
Opened
0.5 -1600
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.05uSettled at -2000 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.00home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-3500at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.00
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.00 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.29%
Break-even
97.2%
Edge vs BE
−2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -3000
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.03uSettled at -3500 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.00home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-4000at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.00
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.00 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.63%
Break-even
97.6%
Edge vs BE
−2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -1900
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.03uSettled at -4000 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.01home runs
68% range0.0to0.3line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-4000at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.01
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.3 · no game history on this row1
95.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.3
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.01 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 95.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 95¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.63%
Break-even
97.6%
Edge vs BE
−2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
95¢
Opened
0.5 -1900
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.03uSettled at -4000 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.19home runs
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-750at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.19
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
86.1%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.19 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 86.1%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.40%
Break-even
88.2%
Edge vs BE
−2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
87¢
Opened
0.5 -550
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.13uSettled at -750 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.14home runs
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-650at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.14
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
85.7%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.14 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 85.7%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.13%
Break-even
86.7%
Edge vs BE
−1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
86¢
Opened
0.5 -750
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.15uSettled at -650 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.14home runs
68% range0.0to0.5line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5-750at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.14
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.5 · no game history on this row1
86.7%
Our chance?
0.0–0.5
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.14 home runs against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 86.7%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.80%
Break-even
88.2%
Edge vs BE
−1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
84¢
Opened
0.5 -750
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.13uSettled at -750 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
58.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.18%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
−0.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.18hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.18
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
63.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.68 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.74%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-109at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
51.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.56%
Break-even
52.2%
Edge vs BE
−0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -109 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-139at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
58.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+1.84 pts
+0.72uSettled at -139 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +1.84 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-450at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
55.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
81.8%
Edge vs BE
−26.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -134
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
13.1outs recorded
68% range6.7to19.6line 14.5?
Slight lean to the under 14.5+150at Novig
line 15.5 → 14.5
LINE 14.5
← under pays
proj 13.1
✓ actual 15
0model band 6.7–19.6 · no game history on this row21
41.5%
Our chance?
6.7–19.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 14.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 13.11 outs recorded against a line of 14.5 — 1.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
15.5 -163
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
16.0outs recorded
68% range0.5to31.4line 14.5?
Slight lean to the over 14.5-111at Novig
line 15.5 → 14.5
LINE 14.5
over pays →
proj 16.0
✓ actual 21
0model band 0.5–31.4 · no game history on this row34
53.8%
Our chance?
0.5–31.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 14.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 15.96 outs recorded against a line of 14.5 — 1.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±15.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+2.21%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
15.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.90uSettled at -111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-450at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
53.0%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
81.8%
Edge vs BE
−28.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -450
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
1.89total bases
68% range0.5to3.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.89
✗ actual 10
0model band 0.5–3.3 · no game history on this row11
50.7%
Our chance?
0.5–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.89 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 38.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.19%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
−1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
1.96total bases
68% range0.6to3.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-114at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.96
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.6–3.4 · no game history on this row4
50.6%
Our chance?
0.6–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.96 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.46 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 37.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−5.01%
Break-even
53.3%
Edge vs BE
−2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -114 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
2.18total bases
68% range0.7to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.18
✗ actual 6
0model band 0.7–3.7 · no game history on this row7
49.4%
Our chance?
0.7–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.18 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.68 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 32.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.26%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
−0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 -102
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.73hits
68% range0.1to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-210at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.73
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.3 · no game history on this row2
65.2%
Our chance?
0.1–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.2%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.78%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
−2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.48uSettled at -210 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.1to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-220at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–2.0 · no game history on this row2
68.3%
Our chance?
0.1–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.3%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.61%
Break-even
68.8%
Edge vs BE
−0.4 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -240
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.45uSettled at -220 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+118at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
47.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
45.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.18uSettled at +118 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-260at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.98
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row3
70.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.7%.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.18%
Break-even
72.2%
Edge vs BE
−1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -235
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -260 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
37.1%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.58%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
−0.6 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.65uSettled at +165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.