64 tracked MLB positions Friday · Sep 25 · 54 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 118 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
LAD @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.14total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.14
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+0.56 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.56 pts.
LAD @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.94total bases
68% range0.0to5.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.9 · no game history on this row6
46.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.60%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
LAD @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.83total bases
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.83
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 35.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.64%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -430
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50total bases
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
56.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
LAD @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-117at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
56.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.14%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.89total bases
68% range0.0to8.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.89
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–8.4 · no game history on this row9
52.1%
Our chance?
0.0–8.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+14.53%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+6.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+6.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +6.93 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-138at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.77%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -160
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
49.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.50%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+3.84 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.84 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.13
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+1.66 pts
−1.00uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.66 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.34total bases
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
61.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.59%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.43total bases
68% range0.1to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-132at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.7 · no game history on this row1
59.5%
Our chance?
0.1–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.54%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.74uSettled at -132 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51total bases
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
56.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.48%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
−0.92 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.92 pts.
ARI @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+118at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
47.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.40%
Break-even
45.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +118
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ARI @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.32hits
68% range0.0to4.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.32
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
59.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.82 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -148
CLV vs close
+2.74 pts
+0.75uSettled at -134 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.74 pts.
ARI @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.60 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.60 pts.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.27hits
68% range0.0to6.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.27
0model band 0.0–6.2 · no game history on this row7
48.4%
Our chance?
0.0–6.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.15%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.78total bases
68% range0.8to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-142at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.78
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.8–2.8 · no game history on this row3
60.8%
Our chance?
0.8–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.78 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 60.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
58.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -157
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.69uSettled at -142 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.91total bases
68% range0.0to5.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-111at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.91
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.6 · no game history on this row6
54.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+1.31 pts
−1.00uSettled at -111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.31 pts.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.19hits
68% range0.0to6.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.19
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.8 · no game history on this row7
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–6.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+11.54%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+5.4 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+4.94 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +4.94 pts.
CLE @ KC · 8:21PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
54.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.92%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+5.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.56 pts.
TEX @ MIN · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-104at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
54.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.08%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+4.58 pts
−1.00uSettled at -104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.58 pts.
TEX @ MIN · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-114at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
55.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
53.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
+1.27 pts
+0.88uSettled at -114 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +1.27 pts.
BAL @ NYY · 7:45PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to9.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+115at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–9.3 · no game history on this row10
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–9.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+10.12%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.7 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+6.10 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +6.10 pts.
STL @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.41%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+4.82 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.82 pts.
STL @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
75¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+3.98 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.98 pts.
STL @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.72%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+2.22 pts
+1.28uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.22 pts.
STL @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.2to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+195at betPARX
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.1 · no game history on this row1
35.2%
Our chance?
0.2–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 35.2%.
Model EV
+3.72%
Break-even
33.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
86¢
Opened
1 +200
CLV vs close
+2.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at +195 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.47 pts.
STL @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
42.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.98%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -102
CLV vs close
−0.17 pts
+1.45uSettled at +145 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.17 pts.
STL @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.57total bases
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-111at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
54.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -430
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.88uSettled at -111 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.9to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-170at ProphetX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.9–1.7 · no game history on this row2
65.9%
Our chance?
0.9–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.73%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
−22.96 pts
+0.58uSettled at -170 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −22.96 pts.
STL @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.21total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.21
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.21 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.90%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -113 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to9.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
0model band 0.0–9.3 · no game history on this row10
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–9.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±9.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
COL @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
46.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.29%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
COL @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.14
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
58.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.83%
Break-even
56.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+0.76 pts
+0.77uSettled at -128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.76 pts.
COL @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
41.5%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
36¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
COL @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row1
40.6%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+2.80 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.80 pts.
COL @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
60.5%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -155
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row3
43.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
+0.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at +135 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.93 pts.
COL @ CWS · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
38.3%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
32¢
Opened
0.5 +138
CLV vs close
+1.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at +170 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.72 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
52.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.54%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -107
CLV vs close
+1.69 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.69 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.38%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -430
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.29hits
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.29
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row4
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.29 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.42%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -430
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.07total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.07
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -430
CLV vs close
+1.83 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.83 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to6.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row6
48.7%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.75%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
ATL @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.15hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-139at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.15
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
60.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
58.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+5.48 pts
+0.72uSettled at -139 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.48 pts.
CIN @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.23hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-116at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.23
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
56.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.50%
Break-even
53.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -141
CLV vs close
−0.22 pts
+0.86uSettled at -116 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.22 pts.
CIN @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row2
45.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.81 pts.
CIN @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row2
46.4%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at +123 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
CIN @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.95total bases
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.95
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
67.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.55 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.8%.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
74¢
Opened
1.5 -210
CLV vs close
−0.48 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.48 pts.
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