50 tracked MLB positions Thursday · Sep 24 · 24 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 74 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-144at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.14
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
61.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+2.96 pts
−1.00uSettled at -144 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.96 pts.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
57.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+107at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
49.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 49.9%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 69.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
48.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at +107 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.43 pts.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-156at ProphetX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+1.61 pts
+0.63uSettled at -156 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.61 pts.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
45.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.83%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.36 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.36 pts.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.62total bases
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-117at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.72%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.84uSettled at -117 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
60.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.14%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
+0.70uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
56.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.70%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+29.56 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.2to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+174at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.1 · no game history on this row1
38.5%
Our chance?
0.2–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.54%
Break-even
36.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +174 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row2
43.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+9.25%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+3.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.48 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
57.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.48%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+0.21 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.21 pts.
LAA @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.41total bases
68% range0.1to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-146at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.7 · no game history on this row1
61.3%
Our chance?
0.1–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.67uSettled at -146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43total bases
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row4
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.73hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-106at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.73
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
53.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+4.10 pts
+0.94uSettled at -106 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.10 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
40.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
−3.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −3.50 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+109at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
47.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.15 pts
−1.00uSettled at +109 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.15 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.1to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
0model band 0.1–1.3 · no game history on this row2
62.7%
Our chance?
0.1–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.09%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+5.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.26hits
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.26
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
52.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.26 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.26%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-127at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
58.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.69%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+3.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at -127 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.07 pts.
TB @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
62.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.02%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+0.31 pts
+0.66uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.31 pts.
TB @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-108at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.15%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.62 pts
+0.93uSettled at -108 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +2.62 pts.
TB @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
57.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+3.46 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TB @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-104at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
53.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.10%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -128
CLV vs close
+3.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at -104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.97 pts.
CLE @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.54 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.54 pts.
CLE @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +107
CLV vs close
+3.36 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.36 pts.
CLE @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-132at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
59.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.15%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+5.37 pts
+0.74uSettled at -132 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +5.37 pts.
CLE @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-132at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
58.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+3.10 pts
−1.00uSettled at -132 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.10 pts.
MIL @ PHI · 6:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-162at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
64.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.0%.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
61.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
84¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+3.20 pts
+0.60uSettled at -162 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.20 pts.
ARI @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
ARI @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.1to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
0model band 0.1–0.7 · no game history on this row1
40.6%
Our chance?
0.1–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.67%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +132
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ARI @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.11total bases
68% range0.0to5.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-106at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.11
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–5.9 · no game history on this row6
53.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
1.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -106 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ARI @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.23hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-215at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.23
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
70.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.4%.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
68.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
74¢
Opened
0.5 -253
CLV vs close
+2.76 pts
+0.46uSettled at -215 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.76 pts.
ARI @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.91total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.91
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.59 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
−0.82 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.82 pts.
ARI @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.49total bases
68% range1.3to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+125at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.49
✗ actual 2
0model band 1.3–1.6 · no game history on this row2
47.4%
Our chance?
1.3–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.63%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
1.5 +102
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
NYM @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.26total bases
68% range0.5to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.26
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.5–2.0 · no game history on this row2
62.9%
Our chance?
0.5–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.26 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.36%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.64uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYM @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
44.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+12.79%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+5.0 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−0.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at +155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.75 pts.
NYM @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.69%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.06 pts.
NYM @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
39.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.44%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYM @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-113at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
55.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -124
CLV vs close
+4.58 pts
+0.88uSettled at -113 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +4.58 pts.
NYM @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51total bases
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row2
51.6%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.4to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-166at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.4–2.0 · no game history on this row2
65.1%
Our chance?
0.4–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.32%
Break-even
62.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.59uSettled at -166 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.16hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.16
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
68.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.66 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+3.52 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.52 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.78hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.78
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
61.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.81%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
−0.89 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.89 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.28total bases
68% range0.7to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-174at ProphetX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.28
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.7–1.8 · no game history on this row2
65.6%
Our chance?
0.7–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.56uSettled at -174 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to7.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-103at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.8 · no game history on this row8
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–7.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
50.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+27.52 pts
−1.00uSettled at -103 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +27.52 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -116
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-106at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.18%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -106
CLV vs close
+0.92 pts
+0.94uSettled at -106 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.92 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -129
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.06 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.0to5.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.9 · no game history on this row6
55.8%
Our chance?
0.0–5.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.32%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.27total bases
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.27
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row2
61.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.27 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.06%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
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