67 tracked MLB positions Wednesday · Sep 23 · 52 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 119 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+108at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
59.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.05%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -144
CLV vs close
+4.26 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +4.26 pts.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.35hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.35
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
63.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.85 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
67.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.0%.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+2.13 pts
+0.55uSettled at -182 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.13 pts.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
56.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.46%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+3.53 pts
−1.00uSettled at -117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.53 pts.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-163at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
63.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.9%.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
62.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+0.29 pts
+0.61uSettled at -163 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.29 pts.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
54.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.29%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -122
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50total bases
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
46.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.69%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.68total bases
68% range0.0to9.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+104at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.68
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–9.6 · no game history on this row10
50.9%
Our chance?
0.0–9.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.68 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.86%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -112
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
+1.04uSettled at +104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.27 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.25total bases
68% range0.1to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-132at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–2.4 · no game history on this row3
59.0%
Our chance?
0.1–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -152
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.74uSettled at -132 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.26total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.26
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row5
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.26 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -137
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.2to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.2–2.2 · no game history on this row2
61.9%
Our chance?
0.2–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -143
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.38%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.19total bases
68% range0.2to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.19
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–2.2 · no game history on this row2
62.2%
Our chance?
0.2–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.37total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.09 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.09 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.45total bases
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
1 +111
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.11total bases
68% range0.0to3.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.11
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
56.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -139
CLV vs close
−0.63 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.63 pts.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.61total bases
68% range0.4to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+124at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.61
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.4–2.8 · no game history on this row3
46.4%
Our chance?
0.4–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.61 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.03%
Break-even
44.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
1.5 +115
CLV vs close
+1.87 pts
+1.24uSettled at +124 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.87 pts.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.70total bases
68% range0.0to7.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+104at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.70
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–7.1 · no game history on this row8
51.5%
Our chance?
0.0–7.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.70 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.00%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.20 pts
−1.00uSettled at +104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.20 pts.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.52total bases
68% range1.4to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-122at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.4–1.6 · no game history on this row2
56.7%
Our chance?
1.4–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.52 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
1.5 -148
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.80uSettled at -122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-175at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.05
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
66.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.45 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.9%.
Model EV
+5.08%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -252
CLV vs close
−1.09 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.09 pts.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.28hits
68% range0.7to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.28
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.7–1.9 · no game history on this row2
63.7%
Our chance?
0.7–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 63.7%.
Model EV
+4.88%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -206
CLV vs close
+0.61 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.61 pts.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+148at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
42.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.18%
Break-even
40.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +145
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.45uSettled at +148 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYM @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
41.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +128
CLV vs close
+1.49 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.49 pts.
NYM @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.46%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -128
CLV vs close
−0.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.98 pts.
NYM @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.50total bases
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-129at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–2.7 · no game history on this row3
58.4%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 58.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.64%
Break-even
56.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -162
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+0.76uSettled at -129 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
NYM @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to6.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+106at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.4 · no game history on this row7
51.5%
Our chance?
0.0–6.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.05%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -118
CLV vs close
+0.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at +106 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.48 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.0to6.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-113at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.7 · no game history on this row7
55.0%
Our chance?
0.0–6.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.65%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
−0.90 pts
−1.00uSettled at -113 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV −0.90 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.20hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.20
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
67.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.6%.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to9.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–9.0 · no game history on this row10
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–9.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.64%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
46.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +113
+1.20uSettled at +120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
45.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.42%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+4.07 pts
+1.29uSettled at +132 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.07 pts.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
61.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.96%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+3.42 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.42 pts.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
61.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.95%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -146
CLV vs close
+1.94 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.94 pts.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
38.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 38.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.06%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
34¢
Opened
0.5 +165
CLV vs close
+2.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at +170 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.03 pts.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.39total bases
68% range1.2to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.39
✗ actual 2
0model band 1.2–1.6 · no game history on this row2
68.7%
Our chance?
1.2–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.39 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.7%.
Model EV
+4.89%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -195
CLV vs close
−20.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −20.06 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
57.9%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.24%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -142
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
62.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.33%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.13 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.13 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.26hits
68% range0.0to5.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.26
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.1 · no game history on this row6
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–5.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.26 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.94%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.23total bases
68% range0.8to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at Hard Rock Bet
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.23
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.8–1.7 · no game history on this row5
71.7%
Our chance?
0.8–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 71.7%.
Model EV
+7.48%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+5.0 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1 -210
CLV vs close
−23.19 pts
−1.00uSettled at -200 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −23.19 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-108at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.02%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -116
CLV vs close
+4.41 pts
+0.93uSettled at -108 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +4.41 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+106at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.11%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+31.46 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
46.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.56%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
CLE @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
CLE @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.29total bases
68% range0.7to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.29
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.7–1.9 · no game history on this row2
64.5%
Our chance?
0.7–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.29 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.5%.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.77 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.77 pts.
CLE @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+111at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.09%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.61 pts
−1.00uSettled at +111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.61 pts.
TB @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+3.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.93 pts.
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