58 tracked MLB positions Tuesday · Sep 22 · 37 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 95 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.13
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
61.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.63%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
59.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
+4.27 pts
+0.75uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.27 pts.
SD @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.36hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-158at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.36
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
63.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.86 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
61.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
−1.00uSettled at -158 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
MIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-112at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
55.1%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.24%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+3.12 pts
+0.89uSettled at -112 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.12 pts.
MIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.25total bases
68% range0.3to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.25
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.3–2.2 · no game history on this row3
60.2%
Our chance?
0.3–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
−0.71 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.71 pts.
MIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
42.4%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.12%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
47.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.39%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
39.8%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
40.5%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +136
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-210at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
70.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.85 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 +189
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at -210 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.2to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.1 · no game history on this row1
37.1%
Our chance?
0.2–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +137
CLV vs close
+4.29 pts
−1.00uSettled at +180 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +4.29 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-159at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
65.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.84%
Break-even
61.4%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -191
CLV vs close
+7.65 pts
+0.63uSettled at -159 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +7.65 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row1
39.1%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.46%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +154
CLV vs close
+2.18 pts
+1.70uSettled at +170 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.18 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.12total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.12
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row4
57.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.09%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+3.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.46 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.90total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-162at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.90
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
63.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.60 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 63.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
61.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
+0.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at -162 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.57 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.21hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.21
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.22%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.27hits
68% range0.0to10.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.27
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–10.2 · no game history on this row11
50.9%
Our chance?
0.0–10.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±10.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.93%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+0.23 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.23 pts.
HOU @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51total bases
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-130at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
58.6%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 41.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 58.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.69%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+4.11 pts
+0.75uSettled at -130 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.11 pts.
HOU @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
54.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.96%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +115
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.38total bases
68% range1.0to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.38
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
62.3%
Our chance?
1.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.38 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.83%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -176
CLV vs close
+3.64 pts
+0.65uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.64 pts.
HOU @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66total bases
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-117at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
56.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at -117 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.98 pts.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.06total bases
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.06
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 66.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.38%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
39.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
36¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+190at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
36.4%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 36.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.44%
Break-even
34.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+39.20 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.66total bases
68% range0.0to6.1line 2.5?
Slight lean to the under 2.5-122at ProphetX
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 1.66
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.1 · no game history on this row7
57.5%
Our chance?
0.0–6.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.66 total bases against a line of 2.5 — 0.84 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.69%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
2.5 +125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.80uSettled at -122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.06total bases
68% range0.0to3.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-122at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.06
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
57.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.18%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ARI @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.88total bases
68% range0.0to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.88
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
60.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.62 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.21%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.70uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYM @ TEX · 8:05PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-148at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
0model band 0.0–0.7 · no game history on this row1
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.43%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
NYM @ TEX · 8:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.73hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-148at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.73
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.03%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+6.65 pts
−1.00uSettled at -148 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +6.65 pts.
NYM @ TEX · 8:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
50.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 41.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.76%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+2.27 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.27 pts.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.21hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.21
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
38.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 38.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.46%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+2.18 pts
+1.70uSettled at +170 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.18 pts.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.38total bases
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.26%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+46.85 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +46.85 pts.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.56total bases
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
46.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+46.85 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.79total bases
68% range0.0to5.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.79
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–5.5 · no game history on this row6
47.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.59%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.06 pts.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-147at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row4
62.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.85%
Break-even
59.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
+6.00 pts
+0.68uSettled at -147 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +6.00 pts.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-136at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
59.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
−0.36 pts
+0.74uSettled at -136 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV −0.36 pts.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.8to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.8–1.8 · no game history on this row3
63.6%
Our chance?
0.8–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.70%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -210
CLV vs close
+4.13 pts
−1.00uSettled at -155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +4.13 pts.
CWS @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42total bases
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
MIA @ CHC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.1to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.7 · no game history on this row1
61.8%
Our chance?
0.1–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+11.15%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+6.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-127at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
58.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.62%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at -127 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.39 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.63%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+5.28 pts
−1.00uSettled at -113 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.28 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.14%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+7.52 pts
−1.00uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +7.52 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.16hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-198at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.16
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
69.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.66 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.0%.
Model EV
+3.85%
Break-even
66.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
+8.56 pts
+0.49uSettled at -198 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +8.56 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to8.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+125at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–8.6 · no game history on this row9
47.9%
Our chance?
0.0–8.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.82%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +112
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
MIA @ CHC · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.13
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.69 pts
+0.65uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.69 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
46.9%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.56%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.33 pts
−1.00uSettled at +123 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.33 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
43.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 64.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.13%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+29.91 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +29.91 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.