13 tracked MLB positions Monday · Sep 21 · 7 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 20 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
MIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-109at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
52.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+7.85 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
43.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+173at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row1
38.1%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
36.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
30¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−0.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at +173 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.27 pts.
MIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.27hits
68% range0.0to9.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.27
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–9.1 · no game history on this row10
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–9.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±8.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.26%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
−1.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV −1.06 pts.
MIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.80total bases
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.80
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
45.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.77%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
TOR @ BAL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.38total bases
68% range0.9to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-144at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.38
0model band 0.9–1.8 · no game history on this row2
61.0%
Our chance?
0.9–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.38 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+29.98 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TOR @ BAL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.2to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.8 · no game history on this row1
46.0%
Our chance?
0.2–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.86%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.76 pts
+1.28uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.76 pts.
WSH @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.90total bases
68% range0.0to7.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.90
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–7.7 · no game history on this row8
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–7.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.66%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.59total bases
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✗ actual 6
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row7
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.99%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.89 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.89 pts.
WSH @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-106at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
54.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.58%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.46 pts
+0.94uSettled at -106 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.46 pts.
WSH @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.42hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-158at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.42
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
65.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.92 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.6%.
Model EV
+7.09%
Break-even
61.2%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -172
CLV vs close
+0.59 pts
−1.00uSettled at -158 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.59 pts.
WSH @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.77hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.77
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
62.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.02%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
WSH @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
45.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+9.44%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +118
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
WSH @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-144at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row3
61.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.43%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -205
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.68uSettled at -144 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.97total bases
68% range1.1to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-166at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.97
0model band 1.1–2.8 · no game history on this row3
71.6%
Our chance?
1.1–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.97 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 71.6%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 28.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 71.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+14.75%
Break-even
62.4%
Edge vs BE
+9.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -185
CLV vs close
+29.59 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TOR @ BAL · 6:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +135
CLV vs close
+30.74 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +30.74 pts.