59 tracked MLB positions Sunday · Sep 20 · 22 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 81 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
MIL @ BAL · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+104at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
51.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.63%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
−0.24 pts
+1.02uSettled at +104 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.24 pts.
MIL @ BAL · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-164at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
65.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.1%.
Model EV
+4.73%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+5.09 pts
−1.00uSettled at -164 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.09 pts.
MIL @ BAL · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
57.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+1.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at -122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.57 pts.
MIL @ BAL · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
41.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.86 pts
+1.47uSettled at +150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.86 pts.
DET @ CWS · 6:05PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
45.9%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.61%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+3.31 pts
+1.25uSettled at +128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.31 pts.
DET @ CWS · 6:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
47.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.76%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+1.72 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.72 pts.
DET @ CWS · 6:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
64.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.7%.
Model EV
+3.98%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+5.48 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +5.48 pts.
DET @ CWS · 6:05PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
56.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.38%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -147
CLV vs close
+5.27 pts
+0.85uSettled at -117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.27 pts.
DET @ CWS · 6:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
57.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.60%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -155
CLV vs close
+5.13 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.13 pts.
DET @ CWS · 6:05PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-102at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
53.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.26%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
+6.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at -102 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +6.95 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
44.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+3.53 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +3.53 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+163at betPARX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
39.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
38.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 +170
CLV vs close
−1.66 pts
−1.00uSettled at +163 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.66 pts.
MIA @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.36hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.36
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
66.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.86 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.6%.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
+1.70 pts
−1.00uSettled at -180 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.70 pts.
MIA @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.32hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.32
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
66.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.82 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.6%.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+1.45 pts
+0.54uSettled at -182 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.45 pts.
MIA @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-123at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
57.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.25%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+3.18 pts
+0.80uSettled at -123 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.18 pts.
SF @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.29hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.29
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.29 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 65.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.97%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
SF @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.69%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.46 pts.
SF @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to4.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+10.32%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+4.6 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
SF @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
−0.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.22 pts.
SF @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+185at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
36.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 36.3%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
35.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
34¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
−0.12 pts
−1.00uSettled at +185 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.12 pts.
SF @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+147at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
41.9%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
40.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+1.53 pts
−1.00uSettled at +147 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.53 pts.
SF @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91total bases
68% range0.0to6.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.91
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.5 · no game history on this row7
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–6.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.55 pts.
MIA @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.83 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.83 pts.
MIN @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.44total bases
68% range1.2to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.44
✗ actual 3
0model band 1.2–1.7 · no game history on this row3
60.3%
Our chance?
1.2–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
88¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
MIN @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.12total bases
68% range0.2to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-175at DraftKings
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.12
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.2–2.1 · no game history on this row2
65.7%
Our chance?
0.2–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.7%.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.75total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.75
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
43.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.47%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.38total bases
68% range0.5to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.38
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.5–2.3 · no game history on this row3
55.2%
Our chance?
0.5–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.38 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -119
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
45.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
39.8%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.35%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+0.75 pts
+1.60uSettled at +160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.75 pts.
SEA @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.06total bases
68% range0.1to4.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-143at Caesars
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–4.0 · no game history on this row4
61.2%
Our chance?
0.1–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.06 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 38.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 61.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.07%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+1.15 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 at Caesars · graded from the box score · CLV +1.15 pts.
SEA @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.44total bases
68% range1.2to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.44
0model band 1.2–1.6 · no game history on this row2
62.2%
Our chance?
1.2–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.65%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
1.5 -165
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SEA @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at ESPN BET
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
69.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.92 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.7%.
Model EV
+4.50%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1 -260
CLV vs close
−23.19 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −23.19 pts.
ATH @ CLE · 2:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to9.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+115at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–9.8 · no game history on this row11
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–9.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±9.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.52%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
ATH @ CLE · 2:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.86%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+4.6 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+3.93 pts
+0.70uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.93 pts.
TOR @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row3
50.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.27%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+6.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +6.93 pts.
TOR @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
54.1%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -129
CLV vs close
−1.16 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.16 pts.
TOR @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to4.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-112at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.94%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -141
CLV vs close
+6.02 pts
+0.89uSettled at -112 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +6.02 pts.
TOR @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.66total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
46.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.44%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+2.95 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.95 pts.
TOR @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
53.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
TOR @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row2
41.9%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.63%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+3.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.48 pts.
WSH @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49total bases
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
52.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.00%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
WSH @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.51%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.71total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.71
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
44.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+1.98 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.98 pts.
WSH @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-184at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
66.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
64.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
+2.74 pts
+0.53uSettled at -184 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.74 pts.
WSH @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
46.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.95%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+4.14 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +4.14 pts.
WSH @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-127at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
58.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.26%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+2.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at -127 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.56 pts.
ATL @ HOU · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+142at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
42.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
41.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−0.67 pts
+1.39uSettled at +142 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.67 pts.
ATL @ HOU · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-164at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.5%.
Model EV
+3.80%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
+3.40 pts
+0.60uSettled at -164 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.40 pts.
ATL @ HOU · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.91total bases
68% range0.2to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-132at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.91
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.2–3.7 · no game history on this row4
59.2%
Our chance?
0.2–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 40.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 59.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.10%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+3.10 pts
+0.74uSettled at -132 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.10 pts.
DET @ CWS · 2:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.59total bases
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
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