69 tracked MLB positions Saturday · Sep 19 · 61 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 130 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
MIN @ LAA · 9:42PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-136at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
64.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.3%.
Model EV
+11.63%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+6.7 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.74uSettled at -136 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-154at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.64uSettled at -154 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.89total bases
68% range0.0to8.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.89
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–8.5 · no game history on this row9
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–8.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+5.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +5.56 pts.
SF @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+174at Novig
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row1
38.6%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.65%
Break-even
36.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
35¢
Opened
1.5 +170
CLV vs close
+0.54 pts
−1.00uSettled at +174 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.54 pts.
SF @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+111at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 49.7%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 66.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.80%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+2.61 pts
−1.00uSettled at +111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.61 pts.
SF @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
44.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+14.55%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+5.7 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+6.24 pts
−1.00uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +6.24 pts.
SF @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+104at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
54.3%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+10.79%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+5.3 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+7.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at +104 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +7.50 pts.
SF @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.78hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-118at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.78
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
56.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.05%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+5.55 pts
+0.83uSettled at -118 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.55 pts.
SF @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
63.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.60%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
SF @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.23hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.23
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
53.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.33%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at -105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.39 pts.
SF @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.27total bases
68% range0.2to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-126at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.27
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–2.3 · no game history on this row3
58.7%
Our chance?
0.2–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.29%
Break-even
55.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+4.25 pts
+0.78uSettled at -126 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.25 pts.
SF @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.27total bases
68% range0.3to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-117at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.27
✗ actual 6
0model band 0.3–2.2 · no game history on this row7
59.6%
Our chance?
0.3–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+10.61%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+5.7 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+5.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at -117 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +5.27 pts.
SF @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+13.56%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+6.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+9.04 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +9.04 pts.
SF @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
50.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+9.96%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.5 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.55 pts.
SF @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86total bases
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.86
✗ actual 6
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row7
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 34.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ SD · 8:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.28hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-147at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.28
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.78 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.18%
Break-even
59.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+5.02 pts
+0.68uSettled at -147 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.02 pts.
MIA @ SD · 8:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.27hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.27
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.6%.
Model EV
+6.08%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−0.94 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.94 pts.
MIA @ SD · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to6.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.2 · no game history on this row7
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–6.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+8.12%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
−0.74 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.74 pts.
MIA @ SD · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
57.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.65%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+3.61 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.61 pts.
MIA @ SD · 8:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
58.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.49%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+5.67 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIA @ SD · 8:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-104at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
54.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.30%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+7.35 pts
−1.00uSettled at -104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +7.35 pts.
MIA @ SD · 8:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row5
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
MIA @ SD · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.21hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
69.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.3%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.76%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
+5.91 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.91 pts.
MIA @ SD · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to8.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+105at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–8.1 · no game history on this row9
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–8.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.23%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
−0.47 pts
+1.03uSettled at +105 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.47 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 8:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-108at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
56.3%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.35%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
−1.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at -108 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.92 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 8:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.33hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-198at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.33
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
70.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.83 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.4%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.90%
Break-even
66.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
74¢
Opened
0.5 -198
CLV vs close
+5.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at -198 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.78 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 8:15PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-144at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
61.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.34%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -180
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
NYY @ ARI · 8:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to4.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-104at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.71%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+5.54 pts
+0.96uSettled at -104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.54 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 8:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.83total bases
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.83
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row5
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.64%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+23.19 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +23.19 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 8:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
57.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.81%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+8.68 pts
+0.82uSettled at -122 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +8.68 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 8:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
45.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.87%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+2.29 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.29 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 8:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.2to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+185at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.2 · no game history on this row1
36.8%
Our chance?
0.2–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 36.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.77%
Break-even
35.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +185 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.1to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.1–1.5 · no game history on this row2
67.2%
Our chance?
0.1–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.2%.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -225
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.53uSettled at -186 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-167at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
65.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.38%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
76¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+4.12 pts
−1.00uSettled at -167 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.12 pts.
SEA @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
2.04total bases
68% range0.0to16.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+102at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.04
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–16.8 · no game history on this row18
51.5%
Our chance?
0.0–16.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.04 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.54 to the under side, inside a band of ±14.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.95%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
1.5 -105
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +102 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.49total bases
68% range1.5to1.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.5–1.5 · no game history on this row2
62.9%
Our chance?
1.5–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.31%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+3.32 pts
+0.64uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.32 pts.
SEA @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.48total bases
68% range1.4to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-126at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.48
✗ actual 2
0model band 1.4–1.6 · no game history on this row2
59.3%
Our chance?
1.4–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.48 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.31%
Break-even
55.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -155
CLV vs close
+4.25 pts
−1.00uSettled at -126 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.25 pts.
SEA @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
43.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +114
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
SEA @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.40total bases
68% range1.0to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.40
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
59.2%
Our chance?
1.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.40 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.79%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -169
CLV vs close
+3.48 pts
+0.75uSettled at -130 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.48 pts.
SEA @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.1to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
0model band 0.1–1.6 · no game history on this row2
68.9%
Our chance?
0.1–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.9%.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
74¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
−34.92 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
WSH @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
40.4%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.04%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+0.75 pts
+1.60uSettled at +160 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.75 pts.
WSH @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
45.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.69%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.84 pts
+1.38uSettled at +138 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.84 pts.
WSH @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row4
43.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−2.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at +138 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.02 pts.
WSH @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+143at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
42.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.22%
Break-even
41.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−0.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +143 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.17 pts.
WSH @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.66total bases
68% range0.6to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.66
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.6–2.8 · no game history on this row4
55.8%
Our chance?
0.6–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.66 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.32%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
61.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.55%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+5.57 pts
+0.70uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.57 pts.
WSH @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.35%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+3.32 pts
−1.00uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.32 pts.
WSH @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row2
49.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.75%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+4.76 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.76 pts.
WSH @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.20hits
68% range0.0to7.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.4 · no game history on this row8
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–7.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ HOU · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−2.71 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.71 pts.
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