61 tracked MLB positions Friday · Sep 18 · 34 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 95 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SF @ LAD · 10:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.1%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
−1.34 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.34 pts.
SF @ LAD · 10:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
56.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+0.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at -122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.60 pts.
SF @ LAD · 10:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.35total bases
68% range0.7to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-126at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.35
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.7–2.0 · no game history on this row2
59.0%
Our chance?
0.7–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.35 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.86%
Break-even
55.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.78uSettled at -126 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SF @ LAD · 10:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.43total bases
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
46.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
SF @ LAD · 10:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.09total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.09
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
59.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.38%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
1.5 -139
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
+0.78uSettled at -125 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
SF @ LAD · 10:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.4%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+0.54 pts
+1.38uSettled at +138 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.54 pts.
SF @ LAD · 10:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.25total bases
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.59%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to5.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-113at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.5 · no game history on this row6
55.0%
Our chance?
0.0–5.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.31 pts
+0.88uSettled at -113 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.31 pts.
MIA @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.02%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
+0.85 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +0.85 pts.
MIA @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.27hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.27
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
68.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.4%.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
−1.70 pts
+0.52uSettled at -194 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −1.70 pts.
MIA @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.32hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.32
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
68.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.82 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.5%.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -244
CLV vs close
−1.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at -194 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.45 pts.
MIA @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.6%.
Model EV
+3.69%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -213
CLV vs close
+1.76 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.76 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.67%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -114
CLV vs close
−1.06 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV −1.06 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.1to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+116at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–0.9 · no game history on this row1
48.0%
Our chance?
0.1–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.77%
Break-even
46.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +109
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +116 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.68total bases
68% range1.2to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-163at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.2–2.2 · no game history on this row2
64.0%
Our chance?
1.2–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.68 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.0%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 36.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 64.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
62.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -186
CLV vs close
+4.69 pts
+0.61uSettled at -163 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.69 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
39.8%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.44%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +145
CLV vs close
+1.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.02 pts.
NYY @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+126at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
45.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
44.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +102
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIN @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.00hits
68% range0.0to5.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-109at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.00
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
54.0%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
52.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -109
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIN @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to6.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–6.9 · no game history on this row8
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–6.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +118
CLV vs close
−0.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.45 pts.
WSH @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row1
47.3%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
WSH @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
68.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.2%.
Model EV
+4.09%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95total bases
68% range0.0to5.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.95
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.3 · no game history on this row6
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–5.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -275
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
WSH @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.79total bases
68% range0.0to1.9line 1.5?
Solid lean to the under 1.5-250at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.79
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
73.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.71 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 73.9%.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
71.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−25.97 pts
+0.40uSettled at -250 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −25.97 pts.
ATL @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.80total bases
68% range0.3to3.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.80
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.3–3.3 · no game history on this row4
57.8%
Our chance?
0.3–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.80 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 57.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.97%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -133
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
ATL @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.53total bases
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.68%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SEA @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
44.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
36¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.55total bases
68% range0.3to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+105at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–2.8 · no game history on this row3
50.4%
Our chance?
0.3–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.55 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+122at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 94¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+4.27%
Break-even
45.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
94¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+0.41 pts
−1.00uSettled at +122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.41 pts.
TOR @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-127at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
57.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
+2.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at -127 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +2.56 pts.
TOR @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.90%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
+4.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at +113 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.27 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.08hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+153at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.08
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
42.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.08 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.68%
Break-even
39.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
32¢
Opened
0.5 +146
CLV vs close
+0.31 pts
−1.00uSettled at +153 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.31 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.38total bases
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 62.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
44.0%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+0.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at +135 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.55 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.60total bases
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
47.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.71total bases
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.71
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
47.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.56%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-162at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
61.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+2.20 pts
+0.62uSettled at -162 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.20 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row2
42.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.66%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+4.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at +145 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.03 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
66.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.4%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.10%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+4.01 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.01 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.46total bases
68% range1.3to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-128at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.46
✗ actual 6
0model band 1.3–1.7 · no game history on this row7
58.2%
Our chance?
1.3–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.46 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.60%
Break-even
56.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -154
CLV vs close
+0.94 pts
−1.00uSettled at -128 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.94 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-166at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.16%
Break-even
62.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
−0.87 pts
−1.00uSettled at -166 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.87 pts.
PHI @ NYM · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
62.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -155
CLV vs close
+3.32 pts
+0.66uSettled at -152 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +3.32 pts.
PHI @ NYM · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+119at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
45.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ NYM · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
44.5%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.58%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +135
CLV vs close
+0.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at +135 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.93 pts.
PHI @ NYM · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.50total bases
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+26.19 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.1to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-152at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.11
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–2.1 · no game history on this row2
64.7%
Our chance?
0.1–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.7%.
Model EV
+7.32%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+8.43 pts
+0.66uSettled at -152 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +8.43 pts.
BOS @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.23hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-210at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.23
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
70.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.3%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -261
CLV vs close
+2.85 pts
−1.00uSettled at -210 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.85 pts.
BOS @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
42.7%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.69%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+2.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at +145 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.47 pts.
BOS @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-108at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.06%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+2.62 pts
−1.00uSettled at -108 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.62 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.