41 tracked MLB positions Thursday · Sep 17 · 44 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 85 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
MIN @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+0.50 pts
+1.02uSettled at +102 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.50 pts.
MIN @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.41total bases
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
56.8%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.22hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+112at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.22
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
53.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+12.42%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+5.9 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -103
CLV vs close
+0.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at +112 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.45 pts.
MIN @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.01%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIN @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.36total bases
68% range0.9to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.36
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.9–1.8 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.9–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.36 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+3.50 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.50 pts.
MIN @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.89total bases
68% range0.5to3.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-141at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.89
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.5–3.3 · no game history on this row4
60.9%
Our chance?
0.5–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.89 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 60.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+5.13 pts
+0.71uSettled at -141 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.13 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-136at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.12%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+2.69 pts
−1.00uSettled at -136 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +2.69 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.85%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+5.92 pts
+1.29uSettled at +132 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.92 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.62total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.66%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
BOS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
41.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
66.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.8%.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+4.21 pts
+0.54uSettled at -182 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.21 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.38total bases
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
45.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.49%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+3.25 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.25 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
41.5%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 +170
+1.50uSettled at +150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-162at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
61.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+2.20 pts
−1.00uSettled at -162 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.20 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row2
43.1%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.51%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+2.19 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.19 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
46.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.17%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+8.44 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
46.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−5.13 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −5.13 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.68%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+1.54 pts
+1.17uSettled at +117 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.54 pts.
DET @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.09hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+175at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.09
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
40.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.09 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+10.74%
Break-even
36.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +172
CLV vs close
+0.67 pts
+1.75uSettled at +175 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.67 pts.
KC @ HOU · 7:17PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.74%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
+1.13uSettled at +115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
KC @ HOU · 7:17PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
46.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.78%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
KC @ HOU · 7:17PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.45total bases
68% range0.7to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.7–2.2 · no game history on this row3
52.5%
Our chance?
0.7–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.45 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.00%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
+6.52 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +6.52 pts.
KC @ HOU · 7:17PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.67total bases
68% range0.5to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.67
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.5–2.8 · no game history on this row5
55.8%
Our chance?
0.5–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.67 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.32%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ HOU · 7:17PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.64total bases
68% range1.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-132at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.64
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.0–2.2 · no game history on this row3
59.1%
Our chance?
1.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.64 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 40.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 59.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.86%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+3.10 pts
+0.74uSettled at -132 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.10 pts.
PHI @ NYM · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.70total bases
68% range0.7to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-123at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.70
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.7–2.7 · no game history on this row3
57.8%
Our chance?
0.7–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.70 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 57.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.85%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
+0.80uSettled at -123 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
SD @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-147at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.88
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row4
61.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.62 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
59.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at -147 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.27 pts.
SD @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.12total bases
68% range0.0to5.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-106at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.12
✗ actual 9
0model band 0.0–5.4 · no game history on this row10
53.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.07%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -117
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at -106 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
SD @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-220at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.85
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
71.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.65 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 71.0%.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
68.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -250
CLV vs close
−37.50 pts
+0.45uSettled at -220 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −37.50 pts.
SD @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-175at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.91
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
66.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.59 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -230
CLV vs close
+0.90 pts
−1.00uSettled at -175 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.90 pts.
SD @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.44total bases
68% range1.2to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-142at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.44
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.2–1.7 · no game history on this row2
60.7%
Our chance?
1.2–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
58.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.69uSettled at -142 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-138at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.14
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
60.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.96%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.80 pts
−1.00uSettled at -138 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.80 pts.
SD @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.25total bases
68% range0.0to8.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+128at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.25
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–8.8 · no game history on this row9
45.4%
Our chance?
0.0–8.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.25 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.75 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
+0.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.78 pts.
SD @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+148at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
42.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.09%
Break-even
40.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SD @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.7%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+9.17%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +114
CLV vs close
+3.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.48 pts.
SD @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
47.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.88%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.15uSettled at +117 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATH @ TB · 1:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
47.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.48%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.09 pts
+1.18uSettled at +120 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.09 pts.
ATH @ TB · 1:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
47.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.27%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+1.49 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ TB · 1:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
51.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.25%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ TB · 1:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATH @ TB · 1:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+148at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
42.4%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.13%
Break-even
40.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+3.16 pts
+1.48uSettled at +148 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.16 pts.
ATH @ TB · 1:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
59.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -134
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+185at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
37.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 62.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 37.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.88%
Break-even
35.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +160
+1.85uSettled at +185 at betPARX · graded from the box score.
LAD @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
68.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.7%.
Model EV
+4.05%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
75¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
+3.24 pts
+0.51uSettled at -194 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.24 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.31total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.31
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -120
CLV vs close
−1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.11 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.09total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-107at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.09
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
58.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+13.27%
Break-even
51.7%
Edge vs BE
+6.9 pts
Opened
1.5 -150
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAD @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
46.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+14.39%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+5.9 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+4.64 pts
+1.45uSettled at +145 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.64 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.7to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-136at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.7–2.0 · no game history on this row2
60.6%
Our chance?
0.7–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.07%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
+2.37 pts
+0.72uSettled at -136 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.37 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.52total bases
68% range1.4to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-114at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.52
✗ actual 9
0model band 1.4–1.6 · no game history on this row10
58.4%
Our chance?
1.4–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.52 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 41.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 58.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.65%
Break-even
53.3%
Edge vs BE
+5.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.68 pts
−1.00uSettled at -114 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.68 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.37hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.37
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
67.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.87 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -190 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 12:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+144at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
42.8%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.36%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.41uSettled at +144 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.