62 tracked MLB positions Wednesday · Sep 16 · 37 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 99 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
MIA @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
45.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.45%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +128
CLV vs close
+0.58 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.58 pts.
MIA @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58total bases
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+0.92 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.92 pts.
SEA @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SEA @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+11.61%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+5.2 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +123 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
45.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.15%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+2.87 pts
+1.28uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.87 pts.
SEA @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
68.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.3%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
+1.23 pts
+0.52uSettled at -194 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.23 pts.
SEA @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
64.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.4%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.75%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+0.60 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.60 pts.
SEA @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +112
CLV vs close
−5.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −5.38 pts.
SEA @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
44.7%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +135
CLV vs close
+0.76 pts
+1.32uSettled at +132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.76 pts.
SEA @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
48.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-205at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.81
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
69.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.69 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.4%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -275
CLV vs close
+1.04 pts
−1.00uSettled at -205 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.04 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+195at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row2
35.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 35.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
33.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +165
CLV vs close
+0.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at +195 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.23 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.12hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+141at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.12
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
42.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +145
CLV vs close
+0.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.17 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.37total bases
68% range1.8to3.0line 2.5?
Slight lean to the under 2.5-130at ESPN BET
line 1.5 → 2.5
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 2.37
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.8–3.0 · no game history on this row3
58.5%
Our chance?
1.8–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.37 total bases against a line of 2.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
−14.50 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −14.50 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
2.03total bases
68% range0.0to4.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-129at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.03
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.6 · no game history on this row5
58.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.53 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 41.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 58.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
56.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.76uSettled at -129 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.32total bases
68% range0.6to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-133at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.32
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.6–2.0 · no game history on this row4
60.5%
Our chance?
0.6–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.32 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.97%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+3.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at -133 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.39 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.35total bases
68% range0.7to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-133at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.35
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.7–2.0 · no game history on this row2
59.7%
Our chance?
0.7–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.35 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.59%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at -133 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.43 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+141at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
44.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.32%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+5.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at +141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.02 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+144at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row1
43.9%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.19%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+4.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at +144 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.47 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.23hits
68% range0.0to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.23
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.7 · no game history on this row1
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 71.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.30%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
58.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
56.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.37 pts
+0.77uSettled at -128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.37 pts.
KC @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.19hits
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.19
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
53.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
−1.22 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.22 pts.
KC @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+108at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.96%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+4.30 pts
−1.00uSettled at +108 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.30 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+0.73 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.73 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
41.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+158at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
41.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.91%
Break-even
38.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+1.24 pts
+1.55uSettled at +158 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.24 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
53.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
43.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.82%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+1.74 pts
+1.45uSettled at +145 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.74 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
62.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.65uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.09hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.09
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.61uSettled at -160 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-109at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
55.3%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.01%
Break-even
52.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+2.39 pts
+0.92uSettled at -109 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.39 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94total bases
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 32.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.26%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
56.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
−5.04 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −5.04 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.43%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.89 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.89 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
67.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.7%.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+2.43 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.43 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+143at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row2
42.5%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
41.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +126
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to5.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.9 · no game history on this row6
48.9%
Our chance?
0.0–5.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.49%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+3.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.57 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-175at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row4
67.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.83 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.2%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.60%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -175 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PHI @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -144
CLV vs close
+4.58 pts
+0.63uSettled at -156 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.58 pts.
PHI @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-127at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
58.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -128
CLV vs close
+2.04 pts
−1.00uSettled at -127 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.04 pts.
PHI @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.3to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+186at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–1.0 · no game history on this row1
36.6%
Our chance?
0.3–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 36.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.73%
Break-even
35.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
35¢
Opened
0.5 +167
CLV vs close
+0.88 pts
+1.86uSettled at +186 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.88 pts.
PHI @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.17%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−0.61 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.61 pts.
PHI @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
62.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -196
CLV vs close
+0.94 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.94 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.5to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.5–0.5 · no game history on this row1
37.5%
Our chance?
0.5–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.89%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +180
CLV vs close
+5.95 pts
+1.80uSettled at +180 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +5.95 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.41hits
68% range0.0to6.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-123at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.41
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.5 · no game history on this row7
57.1%
Our chance?
0.0–6.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.91 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.60%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.74 pts
+0.80uSettled at -123 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.74 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.4to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+200at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.8 · no game history on this row2
34.4%
Our chance?
0.4–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 34.4%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
33.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +200
CLV vs close
+0.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at +200 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.56 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+167at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
38.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
37.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+2.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at +167 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.55 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.03total bases
68% range0.0to6.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.03
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row6
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.53 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.06 pts.
ATH @ TB · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+144at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
42.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.57 pts
+1.44uSettled at +144 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.57 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.