63 tracked MLB positions Tuesday · Sep 15 · 36 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 99 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
MIA @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.21hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
69.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.4%.
Model EV
+5.14%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
80¢
Opened
0.5 -280
CLV vs close
−31.14 pts
−1.00uSettled at -194 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −31.14 pts.
MIA @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.72total bases
68% range0.4to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-117at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.72
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–3.1 · no game history on this row3
56.5%
Our chance?
0.4–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.72 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.83%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+0.63 pts
+0.84uSettled at -117 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.63 pts.
MIA @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.67%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-102at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+1.89 pts
+0.98uSettled at -102 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.89 pts.
SEA @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-104at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row2
53.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.81%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -128
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-159at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.97
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
63.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.53 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
61.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -145
CLV vs close
+2.90 pts
+0.63uSettled at -159 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.90 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at betPARX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
70.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.93 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.13%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 -162
CLV vs close
−33.33 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −33.33 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
42.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+9.30%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
+2.35 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.35 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.28hits
68% range0.7to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-164at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.28
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.7–1.9 · no game history on this row2
65.0%
Our chance?
0.7–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.55%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at -164 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.55 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-196at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.76
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
68.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.74 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.11%
Break-even
66.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -240
CLV vs close
−32.66 pts
−1.00uSettled at -196 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −32.66 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.25
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
55.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.35%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-174at ProphetX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
66.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.86 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.7%.
Model EV
+5.10%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
+4.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at -174 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.75 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-164at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
64.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.3%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -203
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -164 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.12total bases
68% range0.0to5.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-107at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.12
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.1 · no game history on this row6
53.8%
Our chance?
0.0–5.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.00%
Break-even
51.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -120
CLV vs close
+2.44 pts
+0.93uSettled at -107 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.44 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.35total bases
68% range1.0to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-156at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.35
0model band 1.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
65.7%
Our chance?
1.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.35 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.88%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+4.8 pts
Opened
1.5 -160
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SD @ COL · 8:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.73total bases
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.73
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.80total bases
68% range0.0to7.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.80
0model band 0.0–7.6 · no game history on this row8
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–7.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+29.17 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
KC @ HOU · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-127at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
57.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
+2.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at -127 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.39 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
55.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -115
+0.87uSettled at -115 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
BOS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to6.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.5 · no game history on this row7
51.0%
Our chance?
0.0–6.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.47%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
42.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.18%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +148
−1.00uSettled at +150 at betPARX · graded from the box score.
BOS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row5
59.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.88%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+0.37 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.37 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+1.19 pts
−1.00uSettled at -155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.19 pts.
BOS @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.12hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.12
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+0.73 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.73 pts.
SF @ STL · 7:45PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.09hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.09
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
65.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.3%.
Model EV
+4.84%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+2.77 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.77 pts.
SF @ STL · 7:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
42.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.68%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SF @ STL · 7:45PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.92total bases
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ESPN BET
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.92
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
68.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.58 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.2%.
Model EV
+4.02%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1 +145
CLV vs close
−23.85 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −23.85 pts.
SF @ STL · 7:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.79total bases
68% range0.0to7.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.79
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–7.4 · no game history on this row8
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–7.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-208at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
70.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.0%.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
67.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -208 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row1
40.2%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.53%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+2.59 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.59 pts.
NYY @ MIN · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+112at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.60%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+4.05 pts
+1.12uSettled at +112 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.05 pts.
NYY @ MIN · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
+3.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +3.50 pts.
NYY @ MIN · 7:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.50total bases
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
0model band 0.3–2.7 · no game history on this row3
56.4%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -134
CLV vs close
+3.08 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATL @ CHC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
45.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +114
CLV vs close
−6.44 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −6.44 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.53total bases
68% range1.4to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.4–1.6 · no game history on this row2
62.8%
Our chance?
1.4–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.53 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 37.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 62.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.65%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+4.29 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.29 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-102at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+4.05 pts
−1.00uSettled at -102 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.05 pts.
NYY @ MIN · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.23hits
68% range0.0to5.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.23
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.8 · no game history on this row6
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–5.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.88%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
50.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+11.99%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+5.4 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.45 pts
+1.23uSettled at +123 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.45 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.80%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−4.52 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −4.52 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.62total bases
68% range0.8to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-118at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.62
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.8–2.4 · no game history on this row4
56.1%
Our chance?
0.8–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.62 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -118 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-138at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
59.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -168
CLV vs close
+3.41 pts
+0.71uSettled at -138 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.41 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
46.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.48%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
−5.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −5.23 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.58%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−1.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.98 pts.
DET @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
59.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.34%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 -139
CLV vs close
+0.54 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.54 pts.
DET @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
64.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.8%.
Model EV
+6.29%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -243
CLV vs close
+2.03 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.03 pts.
DET @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at Novig
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
68.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.3%.
Model EV
+5.08%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1 -220
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.54uSettled at -186 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.60total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
52.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.12%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.22hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-148at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.22
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
62.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.78%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -167
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
+0.68uSettled at -148 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
DET @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.9to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-170at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.9–1.7 · no game history on this row2
65.9%
Our chance?
0.9–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.9%.
Model EV
+4.60%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+0.81 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.81 pts.
DET @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.13total bases
68% range0.3to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-185at BetMGM
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.13
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.3–1.9 · no game history on this row5
67.8%
Our chance?
0.3–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.37%
Break-even
64.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+1.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at -185 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.75 pts.
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