45 tracked MLB positions Monday · Sep 14 · 19 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 64 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
MIA @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.1to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-176at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.1–1.6 · no game history on this row3
65.9%
Our chance?
0.1–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.9%.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
63.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -240
CLV vs close
+4.49 pts
+0.56uSettled at -176 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.49 pts.
MIA @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-166at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
64.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.8%.
Model EV
+3.88%
Break-even
62.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
+4.26 pts
−1.00uSettled at -166 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.26 pts.
MIA @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-178at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
66.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.3%.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+3.18 pts
+0.55uSettled at -178 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.18 pts.
MIA @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.80%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.99 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.99 pts.
SEA @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.66total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+4.30 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SEA @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-141at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
60.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
−1.24 pts
+0.71uSettled at -141 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.24 pts.
SEA @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.54total bases
68% range1.4to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-156at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.54
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.4–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.1%
Our chance?
1.4–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.54 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 36.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 63.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
47.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.69%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +127
CLV vs close
+4.58 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SEA @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84total bases
68% range0.0to4.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-119at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.84
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.6 · no game history on this row5
57.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.66 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.88%
Break-even
54.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+3.65 pts
−1.00uSettled at -119 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.65 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.24hits
68% range0.6to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-174at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.24
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.6–1.8 · no game history on this row2
67.0%
Our chance?
0.6–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.0%.
Model EV
+5.51%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
86¢
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
+5.25 pts
−1.00uSettled at -174 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.25 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.00total bases
68% range0.0to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-112at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.00
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
57.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+8.31%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+4.80 pts
−1.00uSettled at -112 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +4.80 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+156at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
41.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.75%
Break-even
39.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 +164
CLV vs close
+1.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at +156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.92 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.25total bases
68% range0.0to6.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+103at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.5 · no game history on this row7
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–6.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.38%
Break-even
49.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -108
CLV vs close
+5.08 pts
+1.01uSettled at +103 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.08 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.46total bases
68% range1.1to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-106at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.46
✗ actual 5
0model band 1.1–1.9 · no game history on this row5
53.9%
Our chance?
1.1–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.46 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.75%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+2.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at -106 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.03 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
2.16total bases
68% range0.0to6.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+138at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.16
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–6.2 · no game history on this row7
43.6%
Our chance?
0.0–6.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.16 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.66 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.72%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
1.5 +120
CLV vs close
+0.54 pts
−1.00uSettled at +138 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.54 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.23total bases
68% range0.4to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.23
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.4–2.0 · no game history on this row3
63.4%
Our chance?
0.4–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.72%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+3.24 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.24 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-116at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
57.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.88%
Break-even
53.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+5.31 pts
+0.86uSettled at -116 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.31 pts.
SD @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.06
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row3
66.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.74%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
86¢
Opened
1.5 -215
CLV vs close
+1.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at -180 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.23 pts.
SF @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-127at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
58.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
78¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+4.05 pts
−1.00uSettled at -127 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.05 pts.
SF @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
42.2%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.47%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 +156
CLV vs close
−0.32 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.32 pts.
SF @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.00total bases
68% range0.0to0.4line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.00
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.4 · no game history on this row1
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.4
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a steadier one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.00 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is a clear separation. About as much separation as this model produces. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 86.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.14%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
−1.11 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.11 pts.
SF @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+127at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
46.2%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.78%
Break-even
44.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−0.38 pts
+1.27uSettled at +127 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.38 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-208at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
70.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.81 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.2%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
67.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
26¢
Opened
1.5 -260
CLV vs close
+3.90 pts
+0.48uSettled at -208 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.90 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.54total bases
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.04%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+4.30 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.30 pts.
NYY @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+104at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.43%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.13 pts
−1.00uSettled at +104 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.13 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.47total bases
68% range1.3to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.3–1.6 · no game history on this row2
58.6%
Our chance?
1.3–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.47 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.46%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.43 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.43 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.75total bases
68% range0.6to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-133at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.75
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.6–2.9 · no game history on this row3
58.9%
Our chance?
0.6–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.75 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 41.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 58.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+3.86 pts
−1.00uSettled at -133 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.86 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.36total bases
68% range0.9to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.36
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.9–1.8 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.9–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.36 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.98 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.98 pts.
NYY @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.56total bases
68% range1.4to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-146at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.56
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.4–1.8 · no game history on this row2
61.7%
Our chance?
1.4–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.56 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 38.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 61.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.01%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.63 pts
+0.67uSettled at -146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.63 pts.
ATL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
44.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+4.14 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.14 pts.
NYY @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.29hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.29
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.29 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 65.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +112
CLV vs close
−0.45 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.45 pts.
NYY @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
46.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.95%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.76 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.76 pts.
NYY @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58total bases
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-112at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
54.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.97%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
−0.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at -112 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.45 pts.
NYY @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.03total bases
68% range0.0to6.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-111at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.03
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–6.8 · no game history on this row7
54.4%
Our chance?
0.0–6.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.53 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -129
CLV vs close
+1.94 pts
−1.00uSettled at -111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.94 pts.
NYY @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.3%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.02%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +135
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+2.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.49 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
+2.03 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.03 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.80%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.05 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.05 pts.
BAL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
58.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
77¢
Opened
0.5 -127
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
−1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.22 pts.
DET @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
−1.11 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.11 pts.
DET @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
59.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -142
CLV vs close
+3.05 pts
+0.73uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.05 pts.
DET @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.67total bases
68% range1.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-138at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.67
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
60.0%
Our chance?
1.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.67 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 40.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 60.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.53 pts
+0.72uSettled at -138 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.53 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.0%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.7to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
0model band 0.7–2.0 · no game history on this row2
60.4%
Our chance?
0.7–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
−10.71 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAD @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-108at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
54.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.79%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+0.46 pts
+0.93uSettled at -108 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.46 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to9.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+115at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–9.8 · no game history on this row11
48.6%
Our chance?
0.0–9.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±9.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.45%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -103
CLV vs close
+1.34 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.34 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to15.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+118at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–15.2 · no game history on this row16
48.8%
Our chance?
0.0–15.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±14.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.32%
Break-even
45.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
+5.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at +118 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +5.11 pts.
LAD @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
50.1%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.21%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
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