60 tracked MLB positions Sunday · Sep 13 · 14 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 74 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SD @ SF · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.5 · no game history on this row1
42.0%
Our chance?
0.4–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.05%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
SD @ SF · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
48.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.78%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
−0.41 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.41 pts.
SD @ SF · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
44.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.49%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +112
CLV vs close
+2.90 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.90 pts.
SD @ SF · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.96total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at Novig
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.96
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
64.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.54 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.4%.
Model EV
+4.71%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1 +122
CLV vs close
+3.98 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.98 pts.
SD @ SF · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+106at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.05%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +106
CLV vs close
+2.44 pts
−1.00uSettled at +106 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.44 pts.
KC @ BOS · 4:56PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.16%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ BOS · 4:56PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
54.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
KC @ BOS · 4:56PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
43.1%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +122
+1.40uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score.
KC @ BOS · 4:56PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-123at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
58.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.55%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
−0.61 pts
+0.80uSettled at -123 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.61 pts.
KC @ BOS · 4:56PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
56.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.30%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
−1.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.06 pts.
TEX @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
41.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
TEX @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.54total bases
68% range1.4to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.54
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.4–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.7%
Our chance?
1.4–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.54 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 63.7%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 36.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 63.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.25%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+5.4 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -184
CLV vs close
+7.18 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +7.18 pts.
TEX @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
43.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.77%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+2.66 pts
−1.00uSettled at +145 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.66 pts.
TEX @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+11.52%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+5.2 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+3.57 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.57 pts.
TEX @ ARI · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
47.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.07%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +101
CLV vs close
+2.65 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.65 pts.
SEA @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.45%
Break-even
42.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
+4.88 pts
−1.00uSettled at +134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.88 pts.
SEA @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.61total bases
68% range1.1to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-124at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.61
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.1–2.1 · no game history on this row2
58.7%
Our chance?
1.1–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.61 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 41.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 58.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.00%
Break-even
55.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -157
CLV vs close
+3.32 pts
+0.79uSettled at -124 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.32 pts.
SEA @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.80total bases
68% range0.9to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.80
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.9–2.7 · no game history on this row3
63.7%
Our chance?
0.9–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.80 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 63.7%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 36.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 63.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.20%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Opened
1.5 -134
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score.
SEA @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.57total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
66.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.93 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.3%.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -193
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SEA @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-133at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
59.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.96%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+4.46 pts
+0.75uSettled at -133 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.46 pts.
PIT @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.26hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.26
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.26 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.76 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.96 pts
+0.65uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.96 pts.
PIT @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
65.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.3%.
Model EV
+8.77%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+5.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
+2.96 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.96 pts.
PIT @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
57.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.65%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
PIT @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.18hits
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.18
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
59.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.68 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.34%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+5.05 pts
+0.82uSettled at -122 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.05 pts.
PIT @ CHC · 2:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
54.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CWS @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.21total bases
68% range0.1to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.21
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.1–2.3 · no game history on this row3
60.7%
Our chance?
0.1–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.97%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.02 pts.
CWS @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row1
43.4%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.23%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+0.35 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.35 pts.
CWS @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
65.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.3%.
Model EV
+4.47%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
+1.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at -167 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.48 pts.
CWS @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
66.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.98%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+0.53 pts
−1.00uSettled at -174 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.53 pts.
CWS @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
37.9%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.23%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +152
CLV vs close
+1.60 pts
+1.80uSettled at +180 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.60 pts.
CWS @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
47.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.76%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.36 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.36 pts.
CIN @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
57.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.39%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+7.62 pts
−1.00uSettled at -117 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +7.62 pts.
CIN @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.0to6.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-106at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.6 · no game history on this row7
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–6.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.12%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
−0.24 pts
−1.00uSettled at -106 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.24 pts.
CIN @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to4.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.95%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.55 pts.
CIN @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-121at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
56.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.00%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.70 pts
+0.83uSettled at -121 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.70 pts.
CIN @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
56.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.12%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -142
CLV vs close
+4.76 pts
−1.00uSettled at -117 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.76 pts.
CLE @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.28hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+104at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.28
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
50.8%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.28 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.8%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 66.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
+1.04uSettled at +104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
CLE @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
47.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.17uSettled at +117 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
44.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +135
CLV vs close
+1.31 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.31 pts.
HOU @ TB · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
55.4%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
HOU @ TB · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.61total bases
68% range1.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-122at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.0–2.2 · no game history on this row3
56.9%
Our chance?
1.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.61 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.82uSettled at -122 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
59.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -134
CLV vs close
+2.08 pts
+0.73uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.08 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
57.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
−0.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.60 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
45.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.09%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+4.14 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.14 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.52total bases
68% range0.2to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.8 · no game history on this row1
47.5%
Our chance?
0.2–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
+1.54 pts
+1.15uSettled at +117 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.54 pts.
BAL @ TOR · 1:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.1to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-127at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.7 · no game history on this row1
57.7%
Our chance?
0.1–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+0.57 pts
+0.79uSettled at -127 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.57 pts.
BAL @ TOR · 1:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+112at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
48.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +101
CLV vs close
+0.45 pts
+1.12uSettled at +112 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.45 pts.
BAL @ TOR · 1:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-170at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.02
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
65.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.48 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.1%.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.95 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +1.95 pts.
BAL @ TOR · 1:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.84total bases
68% range0.9to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.84
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.9–2.8 · no game history on this row3
64.2%
Our chance?
0.9–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.84 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.2%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 35.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 64.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -250
CLV vs close
+3.25 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.25 pts.
PHI @ ATL · 1:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to5.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.6 · no game history on this row6
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.