68 tracked MLB positions Saturday · Sep 12 · 38 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 106 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SEA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.03total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row5
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.39 pts.
SEA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.1to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-178at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.1–1.5 · no game history on this row2
66.1%
Our chance?
0.1–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.1%.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.56uSettled at -178 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.57total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
64.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.93 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.8%.
Model EV
+4.10%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
1.5 -165
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TEX @ ARI · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
44.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.22%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
−1.00uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score.
TEX @ ARI · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
43.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ ARI · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.2to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.1 · no game history on this row1
37.0%
Our chance?
0.2–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
−0.63 pts
+1.80uSettled at +180 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.63 pts.
TEX @ ARI · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
38.5%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +145
CLV vs close
+0.70 pts
+1.70uSettled at +170 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.70 pts.
TEX @ ARI · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+111at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at +111 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.39 pts.
TEX @ ARI · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to5.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.3 · no game history on this row6
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.40 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.40 pts.
PHI @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82total bases
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.82
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
46.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.21%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+0.97 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.97 pts.
PHI @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
46.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.15%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
PHI @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.8to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.8–1.9 · no game history on this row2
62.2%
Our chance?
0.8–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.65%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+3.64 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.64 pts.
PHI @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
41.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.85%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PHI @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.63total bases
68% range1.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-126at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.63
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
57.6%
Our chance?
1.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.63 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 57.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
55.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.23 pts
+0.78uSettled at -126 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.23 pts.
CWS @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.1to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-203at Novig
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.8 · no game history on this row2
69.6%
Our chance?
0.1–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.6%.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
67.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
1.5 -226
CLV vs close
+4.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at -203 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.43 pts.
CWS @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.2to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+176at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.1 · no game history on this row1
38.2%
Our chance?
0.2–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.49%
Break-even
36.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +153
CLV vs close
+2.98 pts
+1.76uSettled at +176 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.98 pts.
CWS @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+151at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
41.5%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.22%
Break-even
39.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +151
CLV vs close
+4.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at +151 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +4.60 pts.
CWS @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
66.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 -229
CLV vs close
+5.52 pts
−1.00uSettled at -182 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.52 pts.
CWS @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+171at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
45.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+21.81%
Break-even
36.9%
Edge vs BE
+8.0 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+0.14 pts
+1.71uSettled at +171 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.14 pts.
CWS @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.6%.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
+2.65 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.65 pts.
CWS @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
44.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−1.09 pts
+1.32uSettled at +132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.09 pts.
CWS @ STL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PHI @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
52.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.78%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
CIN @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
47.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.35%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
CIN @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+118at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
48.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.67%
Break-even
45.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+8.05 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CIN @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -169
CLV vs close
+3.75 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +3.75 pts.
CIN @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-159at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.13
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
64.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.7%.
Model EV
+5.44%
Break-even
61.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.25 pts
+0.63uSettled at -159 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.25 pts.
CIN @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.76total bases
68% range0.7to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-136at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.76
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.7–2.8 · no game history on this row5
59.9%
Our chance?
0.7–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.76 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 40.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 59.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
−0.73 pts
−1.00uSettled at -136 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.73 pts.
CIN @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
55.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
−2.99 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −2.99 pts.
HOU @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.34%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+2.03 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.03 pts.
HOU @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.60total bases
68% range1.2to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.60
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.2–2.0 · no game history on this row2
60.2%
Our chance?
1.2–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.60 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 60.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -155
CLV vs close
+0.68 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.68 pts.
HOU @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-148at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -154
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.68uSettled at -148 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
66.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.93%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+10.71 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.85total bases
68% range0.0to7.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at betPARX
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.85
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.8 · no game history on this row8
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–7.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
1 -112
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
HOU @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.76total bases
68% range0.9to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-147at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.76
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.9–2.6 · no game history on this row3
62.0%
Our chance?
0.9–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.76 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 38.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 62.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.13%
Break-even
59.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+3.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at -147 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.72 pts.
HOU @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.19hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.19
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
57.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.08%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -148
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ TB · 6:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
56.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-186at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.96
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
70.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.54 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.9%.
Model EV
+9.08%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+5.9 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
1.5 -260
−1.00uSettled at -186 at betPARX · graded from the box score.
KC @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.2to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at betPARX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.03
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.9 · no game history on this row2
70.7%
Our chance?
0.2–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.7%.
Model EV
+6.11%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
+5.56 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.56 pts.
KC @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.71total bases
68% range0.9to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-141at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.71
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.9–2.5 · no game history on this row3
60.7%
Our chance?
0.9–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.71 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 60.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -175
CLV vs close
+0.84 pts
+0.71uSettled at -141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.84 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−0.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.50 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
36.9%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 36.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Opened
0.5 +176
+1.80uSettled at +180 at betPARX · graded from the box score.
KC @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-178at ProphetX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.91
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.59 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.0%.
Model EV
+4.66%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
−23.05 pts
+0.55uSettled at -178 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −23.05 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-118at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
55.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.85uSettled at -118 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.44total bases
68% range1.2to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.2–1.7 · no game history on this row2
58.3%
Our chance?
1.2–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.90%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+0.21 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.21 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63total bases
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
44.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+1.57 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.57 pts.
CLE @ MIN · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-104at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
52.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -101
CLV vs close
−0.98 pts
+0.96uSettled at -104 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.98 pts.
CLE @ MIN · 4:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.3to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+195at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
0model band 0.3–1.0 · no game history on this row1
35.2%
Our chance?
0.3–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 35.2%.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
33.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +183
CLV vs close
+35.80 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ MIN · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-127at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
57.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
86¢
Opened
1.5 -127
CLV vs close
+2.39 pts
+0.77uSettled at -127 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.39 pts.
CLE @ MIN · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.35total bases
68% range0.1to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-112at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.35
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–2.6 · no game history on this row3
54.6%
Our chance?
0.1–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.35 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -116
CLV vs close
+1.72 pts
+0.89uSettled at -112 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.72 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.