55 tracked MLB positions Friday · Sep 11 · 26 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 81 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
SD @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
78¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
SD @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.22%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.99 pts
+1.17uSettled at +117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.99 pts.
SD @ SF · 10:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+200at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
38.0%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+13.85%
Break-even
33.3%
Edge vs BE
+4.6 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
−0.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at +200 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.55 pts.
TEX @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TEX @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.28%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.64total bases
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
43.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.62%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
TEX @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.90total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-147at DraftKings
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.90
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
65.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.60 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.4%.
Model EV
+9.91%
Break-even
59.5%
Edge vs BE
+5.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1 -199
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -147 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.78hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-195at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.78
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
68.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.72 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.3%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
66.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
+1.64 pts
+0.51uSettled at -195 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.64 pts.
SEA @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.99total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-143at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.99
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
61.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.51 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -175
CLV vs close
+1.94 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.94 pts.
SEA @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.60total bases
68% range0.3to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+106at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.60
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.3–2.9 · no game history on this row3
50.2%
Our chance?
0.3–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.60 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.95 pts
+1.06uSettled at +106 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.95 pts.
CWS @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
45.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.97 pts.
CWS @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
43.6%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.57%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+5.95 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +5.95 pts.
CWS @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+122at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
46.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
45.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +116
CLV vs close
+27.18 pts
+1.20uSettled at +122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +27.18 pts.
CWS @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+106at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.41%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.06uSettled at +106 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CWS @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
68.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.8%.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -235
CLV vs close
+4.76 pts
+0.49uSettled at -200 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.76 pts.
CWS @ STL · 8:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-118at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
55.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -132
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -118 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CLE @ MIN · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
43.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.57%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+1.25 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.25 pts.
CLE @ MIN · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-137at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.90%
Break-even
57.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -149
CLV vs close
+4.46 pts
+0.73uSettled at -137 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.46 pts.
CLE @ MIN · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.94%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+2.39 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.39 pts.
CLE @ MIN · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.77hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.77
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
54.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -154
CLV vs close
+3.37 pts
+0.89uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.37 pts.
CIN @ MIL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+3.36 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.36 pts.
CIN @ MIL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
40.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.25%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+0.29 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.29 pts.
KC @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+108at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.04%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+0.94 pts
−1.00uSettled at +108 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.94 pts.
KC @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
65.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.3%.
Model EV
+8.82%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+5.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -235
CLV vs close
+6.67 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +6.67 pts.
KC @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at betPARX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
65.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1.5 -250
CLV vs close
+5.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at -175 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.11 pts.
KC @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-139at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
61.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.13%
Break-even
58.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -188
CLV vs close
+3.96 pts
−1.00uSettled at -139 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +3.96 pts.
KC @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-195at betPARX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
68.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.95%
Break-even
66.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -250
CLV vs close
+4.91 pts
+0.51uSettled at -195 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.91 pts.
KC @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
65.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.02%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -234
CLV vs close
+4.12 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.12 pts.
KC @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-157at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
63.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.60%
Break-even
61.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+5.58 pts
+0.64uSettled at -157 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.58 pts.
KC @ BOS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at betPARX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
67.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.7%.
Model EV
+4.88%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1.5 -230
CLV vs close
+4.69 pts
+0.55uSettled at -182 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.69 pts.
HOU @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to5.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.9 · no game history on this row6
50.9%
Our chance?
0.0–5.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.26%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−0.47 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.47 pts.
HOU @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.61total bases
68% range1.1to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.61
0model band 1.1–2.1 · no game history on this row2
58.7%
Our chance?
1.1–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.61 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 41.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 58.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
−1.57 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-138at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
60.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+0.35 pts
+0.72uSettled at -138 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.35 pts.
HOU @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
63.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.8%.
Model EV
+4.75%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+1.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.47 pts.
HOU @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.15hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.15
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
69.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
+3.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at -200 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.48 pts.
HOU @ TB · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.35%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
−1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.67 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
64.0%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.0%.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -199
CLV vs close
+0.44 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.44 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.01
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
69.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -228
CLV vs close
+2.08 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.08 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+16.84%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+8.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -152
CLV vs close
+10.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +10.00 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.94%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+4.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.49 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.12hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-154at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.12
✓ actual 4
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row4
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.69%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
+3.27 pts
+0.64uSettled at -154 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.27 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+162at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row3
39.4%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
38.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +147
CLV vs close
−1.80 pts
−1.00uSettled at +162 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.80 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to9.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–9.2 · no game history on this row10
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–9.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -132
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to16.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–16.3 · no game history on this row18
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–16.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±15.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+10.19%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.7 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -121
CLV vs close
+4.94 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +4.94 pts.
LAD @ MIA · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
44.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+0.97 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.97 pts.
BAL @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
+1.10uSettled at +110 at betPARX · graded from the box score.
BAL @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
56.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.29%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+4.24 pts
+0.85uSettled at -117 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +4.24 pts.
BAL @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
42.3%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+4.64 pts
−1.00uSettled at +145 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.64 pts.
BAL @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.99%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+6.51 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +6.51 pts.
BAL @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.29total bases
68% range0.8to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-186at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.29
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.8–1.8 · no game history on this row2
67.4%
Our chance?
0.8–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.29 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.4%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+0.24 pts
+0.53uSettled at -186 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.24 pts.
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