25 tracked MLB positions Thursday · Sep 10 · 14 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 39 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
PIT @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
54.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+8.82%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
+0.74 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.74 pts.
PIT @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.01
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
63.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.51 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
−0.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.60 pts.
PIT @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
43.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
+1.46 pts
+1.38uSettled at +138 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.46 pts.
PIT @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+118at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
47.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.07%
Break-even
45.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
+1.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at +118 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.75 pts.
PIT @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
59.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
−0.55 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.55 pts.
PIT @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
46.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.24%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+32.71 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +32.71 pts.
PIT @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
45.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.97%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Opened
0.5 +108
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
COL @ NYY · 7:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.85total bases
68% range0.0to6.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+101at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.85
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.9 · no game history on this row7
52.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.85 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.11%
Break-even
49.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -112
CLV vs close
+1.71 pts
+0.99uSettled at +101 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.71 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
46.9%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+1.94 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.94 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:05PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.36total bases
68% range0.0to4.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.36
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.36 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.94%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -108
CLV vs close
+2.61 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
COL @ NYY · 7:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.43total bases
68% range1.1to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-132at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.43
✗ actual 3
0model band 1.1–1.7 · no game history on this row3
58.8%
Our chance?
1.1–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.43 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+3.42 pts
−1.00uSettled at -132 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.42 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:05PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
53.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +116
CLV vs close
+2.27 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.27 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.66total bases
68% range0.8to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-123at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.66
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.8–2.5 · no game history on this row4
57.3%
Our chance?
0.8–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.66 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 95¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 57.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
95¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+1.36 pts
−1.00uSettled at -123 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.36 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:05PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-126at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
57.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
55.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -156
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.79uSettled at -126 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+122at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
47.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.87%
Break-even
45.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ SEA · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+103at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
51.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.67%
Break-even
49.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+0.74 pts
−1.00uSettled at +103 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.74 pts.
TEX @ SEA · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
54.5%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.05%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -127
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.89uSettled at -110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ SEA · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-154at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.98%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -154
CLV vs close
+0.31 pts
−1.00uSettled at -154 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.31 pts.
TEX @ SEA · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.78hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.78
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
58.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.87%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -121
CLV vs close
+5.05 pts
−1.00uSettled at -122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.05 pts.
TEX @ SEA · 4:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
61.2%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+8.19%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.6 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+1.46 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.46 pts.
TEX @ SEA · 4:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.59total bases
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ PHI · 1:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.05%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -198
CLV vs close
+1.54 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.54 pts.
HOU @ PHI · 1:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.36total bases
68% range0.9to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.36
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.9–1.8 · no game history on this row2
61.9%
Our chance?
0.9–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.36 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -185
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
HOU @ PHI · 1:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-144at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
61.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+5.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at -144 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.27 pts.
HOU @ PHI · 1:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
44.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.89%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
+3.44 pts
+1.38uSettled at +138 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.44 pts.
HOU @ PHI · 1:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
HOU @ PHI · 1:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.2to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-104at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.8 · no game history on this row1
52.9%
Our chance?
0.2–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -126
CLV vs close
+2.51 pts
+0.96uSettled at -104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.51 pts.
TB @ ATL · 12:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.5to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.5–2.2 · no game history on this row2
57.5%
Our chance?
0.5–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
82¢
Opened
1.5 -145
CLV vs close
+1.53 pts
+0.78uSettled at -125 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.53 pts.
TB @ ATL · 12:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+127at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
46.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.58%
Break-even
44.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 +112
CLV vs close
−1.13 pts
+1.27uSettled at +127 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −1.13 pts.
TB @ ATL · 12:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
44.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.65%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+0.72 pts
+1.38uSettled at +138 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.72 pts.
TB @ ATL · 12:15PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+141at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.8%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.63%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TB @ ATL · 12:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
45.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.