66 tracked MLB positions Wednesday · Sep 9 · 54 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 120 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51total bases
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
line 2.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row2
48.4%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.39%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
2.5 -550
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.65total bases
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-119at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
56.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.13%
Break-even
54.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
1.5 -350
CLV vs close
+2.18 pts
+0.84uSettled at -119 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.18 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.57total bases
68% range1.4to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.4–1.8 · no game history on this row2
63.0%
Our chance?
1.4–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.57 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 37.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 63.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -110
CLV vs close
−2.80 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −2.80 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.21hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
68.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
+0.55 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +0.55 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.21hits
68% range0.0to5.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at Novig
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.6 · no game history on this row6
56.4%
Our chance?
0.0–5.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.49hits
68% range0.0to5.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-138at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.49
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.3 · no game history on this row6
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.99 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
78¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+1.03 pts
+0.71uSettled at -138 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.03 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row2
40.9%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.37%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 +135
CLV vs close
+1.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.27 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.44total bases
68% range1.1to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.44
0model band 1.1–1.8 · no game history on this row2
57.5%
Our chance?
1.1–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -125
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
45.9%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+16.92%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+6.6 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ARI @ KC · 8:31PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.46total bases
68% range1.0to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.46
✗ actual 5
0model band 1.0–1.9 · no game history on this row5
53.6%
Our chance?
1.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.46 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.14%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.55 pts.
ARI @ KC · 8:31PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.70total bases
68% range0.0to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-106at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.70
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
54.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.70 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.04%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
−0.72 pts
+0.94uSettled at -106 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.72 pts.
ARI @ KC · 8:31PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.2to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+188at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–1.2 · no game history on this row2
35.9%
Our chance?
0.2–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 35.9%.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
34.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
36¢
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
+0.99 pts
−1.00uSettled at +188 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +0.99 pts.
ARI @ KC · 8:31PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.24total bases
68% range0.5to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-157at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.24
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.5–2.0 · no game history on this row2
63.8%
Our chance?
0.5–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 63.8%.
Model EV
+4.40%
Break-even
61.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.64uSettled at -157 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.96 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.96 pts.
PIT @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.52total bases
68% range1.4to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-129at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.4–1.6 · no game history on this row2
58.2%
Our chance?
1.4–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.52 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 41.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 58.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
56.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -152
CLV vs close
+5.21 pts
+0.78uSettled at -129 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +5.21 pts.
PIT @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
48.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+1.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.57 pts.
PIT @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
47.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.59%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
−0.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +123 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.98 pts.
PIT @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-132at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
58.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.74uSettled at -132 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 63.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
−0.24 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.24 pts.
TB @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
46.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -330
CLV vs close
−0.40 pts
−1.00uSettled at +123 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.40 pts.
TB @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -330
CLV vs close
−2.15 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −2.15 pts.
TB @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.28hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.28
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
67.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.78 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.7%.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -196
CLV vs close
−0.48 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV −0.48 pts.
TB @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+108at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.25%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -330
CLV vs close
+0.94 pts
−1.00uSettled at +108 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.94 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.40total bases
68% range0.0to3.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.40
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.40 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
−0.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.50 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.54total bases
68% range1.3to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.54
✗ actual 4
0model band 1.3–1.8 · no game history on this row4
55.6%
Our chance?
1.3–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.54 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row1
46.0%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−1.89 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.89 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+118at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+21.03%
Break-even
45.9%
Edge vs BE
+9.6 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+3.63 pts
−1.00uSettled at +118 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.63 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.2to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–1.2 · no game history on this row2
37.1%
Our chance?
0.2–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.94%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
35¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
−3.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at +180 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −3.46 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.62total bases
68% range1.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-127at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.62
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
58.0%
Our chance?
1.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.62 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 58.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
−3.12 pts
+0.79uSettled at -127 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −3.12 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.87total bases
68% range0.0to3.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-118at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.87
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
57.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.87 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 57.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.75%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.23 pts
+0.83uSettled at -118 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.23 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-178at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
66.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+1.96 pts
+0.55uSettled at -178 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.96 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-203at Novig
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.83
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
69.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.67 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.4%.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
67.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -203
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
53.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.60%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+4.75 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
45.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.24%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
−0.74 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.74 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row3
46.0%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +127
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.28hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.28
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
47.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.28 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.70%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.06 pts.
HOU @ PHI · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.71total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.71
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
46.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.04%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
NYM @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-111at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
55.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.17%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -111
CLV vs close
+5.38 pts
+0.88uSettled at -111 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.38 pts.
HOU @ PHI · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+136at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row2
46.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.48%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+4.14 pts
−1.00uSettled at +136 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.14 pts.
HOU @ PHI · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.87total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.87
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
43.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+23.85 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +23.85 pts.
NYM @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.59total bases
68% range1.1to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-122at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.59
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.1–2.1 · no game history on this row2
56.8%
Our chance?
1.1–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.59 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+1.57 pts
+0.82uSettled at -122 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.57 pts.
NYM @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.81total bases
68% range0.0to3.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-117at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.81
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
56.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.81 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.22%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -117 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ PHI · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.71total bases
68% range1.1to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-158at ProphetX
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.71
✗ actual 3
0model band 1.1–2.3 · no game history on this row3
63.3%
Our chance?
1.1–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.71 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 36.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 63.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
61.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1 -180
CLV vs close
+2.79 pts
−1.00uSettled at -158 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.79 pts.
HOU @ PHI · 6:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
47.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.53%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ PHI · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
47.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.06 pts.
CLE @ BAL · 6:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to4.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.6 · no game history on this row5
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.56%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
CLE @ BAL · 6:36PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ BAL · 6:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row2
39.0%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +164
CLV vs close
+1.33 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.33 pts.
CLE @ BAL · 6:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+109at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
47.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
−1.76 pts
+1.09uSettled at +109 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.76 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.