64 tracked MLB positions Tuesday · Sep 8 · 23 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 87 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.57total bases
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.87%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.81 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.56hits
68% range0.0to5.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.56
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.5 · no game history on this row6
60.7%
Our chance?
0.0–5.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 1.06 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.11%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -166
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.70uSettled at -140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.26hits
68% range0.0to33.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+103at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.26
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–33.5 · no game history on this row36
50.9%
Our chance?
0.0–33.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.26 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.76 to the over side, inside a band of ±32.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
49.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
+0.74 pts
−1.00uSettled at +103 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.74 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
53.5%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+8.15%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +102 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-205at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
69.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.6%.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -225
CLV vs close
+0.53 pts
−1.00uSettled at -205 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.53 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.65total bases
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
50.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.06%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.61total bases
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
43.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +101
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.37uSettled at +140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
47.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.05%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
45.4%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.60%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
−2.71 pts
+1.28uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.71 pts.
STL @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
48.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.17%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−1.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.47 pts.
STL @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.18hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-157at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.18
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
63.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.68 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.01%
Break-even
61.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+0.74 pts
+0.64uSettled at -157 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +0.74 pts.
STL @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.35hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-157at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.35
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.85 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
61.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
−1.41 pts
−1.00uSettled at -157 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV −1.41 pts.
WSH @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-178at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
66.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.2%.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -188
CLV vs close
−0.53 pts
+0.56uSettled at -178 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.53 pts.
TOR @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.0to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-105at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
52.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -105 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
40.0%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.21 pts
+1.57uSettled at +160 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.21 pts.
WSH @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-148at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.81%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -162
CLV vs close
+3.29 pts
−1.00uSettled at -148 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.29 pts.
WSH @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
65.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.4%.
Model EV
+4.58%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
−0.14 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.14 pts.
WSH @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row2
41.4%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
WSH @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-108at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
54.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.77%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -123
CLV vs close
+4.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at -108 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.02 pts.
WSH @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+107at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.11%
Break-even
48.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
+3.61 pts
−1.00uSettled at +107 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.61 pts.
TOR @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.12total bases
68% range0.5to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-228at Novig
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.12
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.5–1.8 · no game history on this row4
72.2%
Our chance?
0.5–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 72.2%.
Model EV
+3.85%
Break-even
69.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1 -140
CLV vs close
+0.18 pts
−1.00uSettled at -228 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.18 pts.
WSH @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.46total bases
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-112at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
56.6%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.06%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TEX @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+12.84%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+5.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +108
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TEX @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-144at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
61.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
−0.68 pts
+0.69uSettled at -144 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.68 pts.
TOR @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+188at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row2
39.4%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 39.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+13.44%
Break-even
34.7%
Edge vs BE
+4.7 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +188
CLV vs close
+0.99 pts
−1.00uSettled at +188 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.99 pts.
TOR @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.8%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.10%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.19hits
68% range0.0to4.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-127at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.19
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.7 · no game history on this row5
57.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.69 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
−2.24 pts
+0.79uSettled at -127 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.24 pts.
CHC @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to4.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.7 · no game history on this row5
56.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+0.83 pts
+0.85uSettled at -117 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +0.83 pts.
CHC @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+125at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−1.34 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV −1.34 pts.
CHC @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
65.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.4%.
Model EV
+5.04%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -236
CLV vs close
+1.63 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.63 pts.
CHC @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-136at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
59.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+0.53 pts
+0.74uSettled at -136 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +0.53 pts.
CHC @ MIL · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.27total bases
68% range0.7to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.27
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.7–1.9 · no game history on this row2
64.6%
Our chance?
0.7–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.6%.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.65 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.65 pts.
PIT @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.12hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-133at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.12
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.52%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -175
CLV vs close
+2.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at -133 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.92 pts.
PIT @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to5.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+114at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–5.4 · no game history on this row6
49.0%
Our chance?
0.0–5.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.84%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
−0.65 pts
−1.00uSettled at +114 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.65 pts.
ARI @ KC · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.7to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
0model band 0.7–2.0 · no game history on this row2
60.3%
Our chance?
0.7–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+8.52%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+4.7 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -110
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ARI @ KC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.1to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.04
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–2.0 · no game history on this row2
69.0%
Our chance?
0.1–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.46 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.0%.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1.5 -230
CLV vs close
+2.08 pts
+0.49uSettled at -200 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.08 pts.
ARI @ KC · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.50total bases
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+108at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–2.7 · no game history on this row3
53.1%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+10.55%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+5.1 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -110
CLV vs close
+1.43 pts
+1.08uSettled at +108 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.43 pts.
ARI @ KC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.47total bases
68% range1.3to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-129at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.47
✗ actual 2
0model band 1.3–1.6 · no game history on this row2
58.6%
Our chance?
1.3–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.47 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.04%
Break-even
56.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -149
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at -129 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
ARI @ KC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.70total bases
68% range0.9to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-136at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.70
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.9–2.5 · no game history on this row3
59.5%
Our chance?
0.9–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.70 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 40.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 59.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -136 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.24hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-172at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.24
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
65.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.74 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.3%.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
63.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.57uSettled at -172 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.74total bases
68% range0.0to5.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.74
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.2 · no game history on this row6
52.1%
Our chance?
0.0–5.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.26%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +4.55 pts.
TB @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+108at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.60%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+24.15 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TB @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.94%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-113at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
54.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -128
CLV vs close
+0.87 pts
−1.00uSettled at -113 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.87 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+122at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.63%
Break-even
45.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+2.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at +122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.57 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+112at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
48.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
+2.83 pts
+1.10uSettled at +112 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.83 pts.
COL @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.95%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -270
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 69.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.31%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
−1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.11 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
57.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+10.33%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+5.4 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -132
CLV vs close
+5.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +5.95 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
65.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.5%.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
+1.04 pts
+0.56uSettled at -174 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.04 pts.
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