50 tracked MLB positions Monday · Sep 7 · 25 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 75 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
TOR @ ATH · 10:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-108at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
54.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.69%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.93uSettled at -108 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TOR @ ATH · 10:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.14
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
60.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−0.69 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.69 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.0%.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+6.27 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CIN @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
68.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.5%.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+1.76 pts
−1.00uSettled at -194 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.76 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
66.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.0%.
Model EV
+4.01%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+0.53 pts
−1.00uSettled at -174 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.53 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.35%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.65 pts
+0.64uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.65 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.77total bases
68% range0.0to4.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-108at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.77
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
54.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.77 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.65%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -139
CLV vs close
+2.62 pts
+0.93uSettled at -108 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.62 pts.
CIN @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.48hits
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.48
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.98 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -370
CLV vs close
+2.03 pts
+0.63uSettled at -156 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.03 pts.
STL @ SF · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.26total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.26
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
45.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.26 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.27%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
STL @ SF · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+104at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.53%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−2.51 pts
+1.04uSettled at +104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −2.51 pts.
STL @ SF · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.85total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.85
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.65 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.0%.
Model EV
+4.27%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ SF · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to5.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.9 · no game history on this row6
48.9%
Our chance?
0.0–5.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.05%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 -103
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
STL @ SF · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.27hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-210at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.27
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
70.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.2%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -220
+0.47uSettled at -210 at ProphetX · graded from the box score.
STL @ SF · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-198at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.14
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
68.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
66.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
+0.22 pts
+0.49uSettled at -198 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.22 pts.
STL @ SF · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+143at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
43.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.71%
Break-even
41.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
+1.43uSettled at +143 at betPARX · graded from the box score.
STL @ SF · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
45.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.80%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.57 pts.
WSH @ SD · 5:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
65.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.7%.Risk: an exchange is asking 95¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.38%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
95¢
Opened
0.5 -370
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at -170 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
WSH @ SD · 5:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
38.3%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 -350
CLV vs close
+4.12 pts
+1.67uSettled at +170 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +4.12 pts.
WSH @ SD · 5:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
42.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.37%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 -350
CLV vs close
+0.82 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.82 pts.
WSH @ SD · 5:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.18%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -350
+1.10uSettled at +110 at betPARX · graded from the box score.
WSH @ SD · 5:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-178at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row3
66.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.3%.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -370
CLV vs close
+2.64 pts
+0.56uSettled at -178 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.64 pts.
WSH @ SD · 5:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
47.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.79%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 -350
CLV vs close
−2.35 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.35 pts.
WSH @ SD · 5:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 95¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+4.72%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
95¢
Opened
0.5 -370
CLV vs close
+6.08 pts
+0.85uSettled at -117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +6.08 pts.
WSH @ SD · 5:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.16hits
68% range0.4to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-182at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.16
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.4–1.9 · no game history on this row3
67.3%
Our chance?
0.4–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.3%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.34%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
1.5 -240
CLV vs close
+0.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at -182 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.50 pts.
MIN @ DET · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
48.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +111
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
MIN @ DET · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
45.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+1.98 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.98 pts.
MIN @ DET · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row3
63.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.98%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+3.19 pts
+0.64uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.19 pts.
MIN @ DET · 3:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
39.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.27%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+2.96 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIN @ DET · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.39total bases
68% range1.2to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-200at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.39
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.2–1.6 · no game history on this row2
69.6%
Our chance?
1.2–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.39 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.6%.
Model EV
+4.42%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
74¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+3.83 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.83 pts.
CHC @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.15hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.15
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
64.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.8%.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+1.99 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.99 pts.
CHC @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.01
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
57.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.51 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.26%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+4.8 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.75 pts
+0.89uSettled at -110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.75 pts.
CHC @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-163at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
66.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.0%.
Model EV
+6.57%
Break-even
62.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+3.54 pts
−1.00uSettled at -163 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.54 pts.
CHC @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
48.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.11%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−2.65 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.65 pts.
CHC @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-137at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
59.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.69%
Break-even
57.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
+4.03 pts
+0.73uSettled at -137 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +4.03 pts.
ARI @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+133at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
44.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
42.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−1.25 pts
+1.33uSettled at +133 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.25 pts.
ARI @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
65.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.7%.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -370
CLV vs close
+1.04 pts
+0.57uSettled at -174 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.04 pts.
ARI @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
66.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.6%.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -370
CLV vs close
−0.25 pts
−1.00uSettled at -182 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.25 pts.
ARI @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row3
68.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.6%.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.52uSettled at -194 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.26hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-198at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.26
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
68.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.26 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.76 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.6%.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
66.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -198 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 1:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-176at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
66.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.5%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.22%
Break-even
63.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -223
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -176 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
45.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+12.90%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+5.2 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
CLE @ BAL · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 63.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.16%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +101
CLV vs close
+4.07 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +4.07 pts.
CLE @ BAL · 1:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+108at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
51.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.04%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +102
CLV vs close
+0.23 pts
+1.08uSettled at +108 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.23 pts.
CLE @ BAL · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-154at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
63.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.9%.
Model EV
+5.41%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -182
CLV vs close
+3.40 pts
−1.00uSettled at -154 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.40 pts.
CLE @ BAL · 1:36PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
56.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.65%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ BAL · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
69.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.8%.
Model EV
+5.84%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -270
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -194 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CLE @ BAL · 1:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.85%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
−0.88 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.88 pts.
CLE @ BAL · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.40total bases
68% range0.5to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-112at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.40
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.5–2.3 · no game history on this row3
54.6%
Our chance?
0.5–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.40 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
1.5 -120
CLV vs close
+3.69 pts
+0.89uSettled at -112 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.69 pts.
CLE @ BAL · 1:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.80total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.80
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
55.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.32%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+1.06 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.06 pts.
LAA @ BOS · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.19total bases
68% range0.6to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at Novig
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.19
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.6–1.8 · no game history on this row2
68.8%
Our chance?
0.6–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.8%.
Model EV
+5.04%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1 -176
CLV vs close
−0.24 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.24 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.