58 tracked MLB positions Sunday · Sep 6 · 19 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 77 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
WSH @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50total bases
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.56%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+0.98uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.72%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +112
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.38uSettled at +138 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+136at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
43.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +136 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+153at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
41.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.68%
Break-even
39.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
+0.80 pts
+1.53uSettled at +153 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.80 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.75%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+1.64 pts
+0.85uSettled at -117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.64 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +112
CLV vs close
−0.47 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.47 pts.
MIN @ CWS · 6:20PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+144at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
42.5%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.77%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +144 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ CWS · 6:20PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.78total bases
68% range0.7to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-135at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.78
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.7–2.9 · no game history on this row3
59.8%
Our chance?
0.7–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.78 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 40.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 59.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.13%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -164
CLV vs close
+4.53 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.53 pts.
NYY @ SD · 4:15PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.22hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-116at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.22
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
55.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.09%
Break-even
53.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+23.04 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ SEA · 4:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
48.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.04%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+31.29 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ SEA · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
57.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.92%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+0.99 pts
+0.82uSettled at -122 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.99 pts.
ATH @ SEA · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
66.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.3%.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
−0.52 pts
+0.54uSettled at -180 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.52 pts.
ATH @ SEA · 4:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to16.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–16.0 · no game history on this row17
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–16.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±15.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -121
CLV vs close
+3.36 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.36 pts.
STL @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.24total bases
68% range0.1to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-133at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.24
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–2.4 · no game history on this row3
59.0%
Our chance?
0.1–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.75uSettled at -133 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.81total bases
68% range0.0to7.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.81
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–7.2 · no game history on this row8
54.3%
Our chance?
0.0–7.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.69 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.60%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
1.5 -112
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
STL @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
40.8%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.03%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+0.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.60 pts.
STL @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
48.7%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.23%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+31.29 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +31.29 pts.
STL @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
42.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+0.34 pts
+1.45uSettled at +145 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.34 pts.
STL @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.13
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
62.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.48%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
STL @ COL · 3:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.18total bases
68% range0.0to6.0line 2.5?
Slight lean to the under 2.5-143at betPARX
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 1.18
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row7
60.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 total bases against a line of 2.5 — 1.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
2.5 -176
CLV vs close
−13.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at -143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −13.39 pts.
TB @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.09%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TB @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
TB @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-118at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
56.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
+2.39 pts
+0.83uSettled at -118 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.39 pts.
TB @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row2
53.6%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.16%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+3.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.92 pts.
TOR @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.38total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-105at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
53.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.38 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.67%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -112
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
TOR @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.71total bases
68% range0.4to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.71
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.4–3.0 · no game history on this row3
49.6%
Our chance?
0.4–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.71 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.16%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -117
CLV vs close
+4.76 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.76 pts.
TOR @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.09total bases
68% range0.1to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.09
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–2.0 · no game history on this row2
66.6%
Our chance?
0.1–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.6%.
Model EV
+3.60%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
−22.62 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −22.62 pts.
TOR @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91total bases
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.91
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row4
44.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -340
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TOR @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82total bases
68% range0.0to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.82
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.68 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.05%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -240
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
TOR @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.4to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.8 · no game history on this row1
37.9%
Our chance?
0.4–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.18%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +180
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +180 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TOR @ KC · 2:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.46 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.46 pts.
ARI @ HOU · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
46.9%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 -280
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
ARI @ HOU · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-112at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
55.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.49%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -127
CLV vs close
−0.91 pts
+0.89uSettled at -112 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.91 pts.
ARI @ HOU · 2:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.75total bases
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.75
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
49.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 38.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.77%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+29.13 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ MIA · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
52.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -340
CLV vs close
+0.47 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.47 pts.
CHC @ MIA · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.59%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 -340
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
CHC @ MIA · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
59.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -360
CLV vs close
−0.93 pts
+0.75uSettled at -134 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.93 pts.
CHC @ MIA · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
66.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.8%.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -360
CLV vs close
−0.64 pts
−1.00uSettled at -182 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.64 pts.
CHC @ MIA · 1:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
58.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.19%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -360
CLV vs close
+1.28 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
DET @ CLE · 1:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-158at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
61.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -158 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ CLE · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -148
CLV vs close
+2.96 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.96 pts.
DET @ CLE · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-111at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
54.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.32%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -136
CLV vs close
+2.75 pts
+0.90uSettled at -111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.75 pts.
SF @ NYM · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+104at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+27.72 pts
+1.04uSettled at +104 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +27.72 pts.
DET @ CLE · 1:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.40total bases
68% range1.1to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-154at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.40
0model band 1.1–1.7 · no game history on this row2
62.7%
Our chance?
1.1–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.40 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -165
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
DET @ CLE · 1:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
56.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.81%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -148
CLV vs close
+2.60 pts
+0.85uSettled at -117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.60 pts.
DET @ CLE · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69total bases
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.60%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
SF @ NYM · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row1
38.3%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.13%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +180
CLV vs close
+1.88 pts
−1.00uSettled at +180 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.88 pts.
SF @ NYM · 1:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.26total bases
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.26
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row5
52.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.26 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.94%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+26.74 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SF @ NYM · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55total bases
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.94%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -117
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
DET @ CLE · 1:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.85total bases
68% range0.0to5.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.85
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.6 · no game history on this row6
52.9%
Our chance?
0.0–5.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.