62 tracked MLB positions Saturday · Sep 5 · 34 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 96 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
ATH @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-121at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
56.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+2.51 pts
+0.81uSettled at -121 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.51 pts.
ATH @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
46.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +1.72 pts.
ATH @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.2to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+114at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.8 · no game history on this row1
51.2%
Our chance?
0.2–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.61%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+4.5 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+5.65 pts
+1.14uSettled at +114 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.65 pts.
ATH @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-132at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
58.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+3.73 pts
−1.00uSettled at -132 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.73 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+106at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.11%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+0.48 pts
+1.06uSettled at +106 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.48 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-127at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row4
58.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+4.99 pts
+0.77uSettled at -127 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.99 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.51total bases
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-127at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
59.1%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 40.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 59.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.65%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
WSH @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to11.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–11.8 · no game history on this row13
48.8%
Our chance?
0.0–11.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±10.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.83%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+108at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.02%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -330
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
+1.08uSettled at +108 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-108at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
53.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -330
−1.00uSettled at -108 at ProphetX · graded from the box score.
WSH @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 -330
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
WSH @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
−0.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.46 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.25%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+0.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at +102 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.50 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
53.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.86%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -137
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 9:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52total bases
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
56.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84total bases
68% range0.0to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-148at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.84
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
61.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.66 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -148 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.24total bases
68% range0.4to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-147at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.24
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.4–2.1 · no game history on this row2
62.1%
Our chance?
0.4–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.26%
Break-even
59.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.75 pts
+0.68uSettled at -147 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.75 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.69total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-185at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
67.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.81 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
64.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.54uSettled at -185 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.19total bases
68% range0.0to7.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+115at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.19
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–7.4 · no game history on this row8
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–7.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
1.5 +105
CLV vs close
+0.66 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.66 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.44total bases
68% range1.2to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-120at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.44
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.2–1.7 · no game history on this row2
58.5%
Our chance?
1.2–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.20%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+3.44 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.44 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.3to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.17
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–2.0 · no game history on this row2
65.6%
Our chance?
0.3–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.6%.
Model EV
+5.31%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
+2.77 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.77 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
45.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
−2.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −2.49 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
67.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.84 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -209
CLV vs close
+2.74 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.74 pts.
NYY @ SD · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-109at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
56.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.45%
Break-even
52.2%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -135
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
NYY @ SD · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to6.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-102at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row7
53.2%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.34%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -102 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYY @ SD · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.15hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.15
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYY @ SD · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-164at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
64.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.2%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
62.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
−0.58 pts
−1.00uSettled at -164 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.58 pts.
NYY @ SD · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
54.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.32%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -330
CLV vs close
+5.95 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ARI @ HOU · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.49total bases
68% range1.5to1.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at BetMGM
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.49
✗ actual 2
0model band 1.5–1.5 · no game history on this row2
64.6%
Our chance?
1.5–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.6%.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.65 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.65 pts.
ARI @ HOU · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.45%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -330
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYY @ SD · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
40.3%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.83%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 -330
CLV vs close
+3.56 pts
+1.57uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.56 pts.
NYY @ SD · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.88total bases
68% range0.0to10.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.88
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–10.1 · no game history on this row11
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–10.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±9.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -330
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
ARI @ HOU · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
65.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.6%.
Model EV
+4.83%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.49 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.49 pts.
TOR @ KC · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.42total bases
68% range0.8to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-116at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.42
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.8–2.0 · no game history on this row2
55.5%
Our chance?
0.8–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.42 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
53.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -125
CLV vs close
−0.22 pts
+0.86uSettled at -116 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.22 pts.
TOR @ KC · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.63total bases
68% range0.1to3.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-107at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.63
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–3.2 · no game history on this row3
53.4%
Our chance?
0.1–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.63 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
51.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -107 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TOR @ KC · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.76total bases
68% range0.6to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-133at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.76
✗ actual 6
0model band 0.6–2.9 · no game history on this row7
59.2%
Our chance?
0.6–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.76 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 40.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 59.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+2.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at -133 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.92 pts.
MIN @ CWS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
66.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.6%.
Model EV
+4.61%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+0.39 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.39 pts.
MIN @ CWS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.92total bases
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.92
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 33.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -330
CLV vs close
+26.07 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +26.07 pts.
MIN @ CWS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.28total bases
68% range0.4to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.28
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–2.1 · no game history on this row2
60.3%
Our chance?
0.4–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
MIN @ CWS · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.56total bases
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
50.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.02%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -330
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
MIN @ CWS · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.60total bases
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
44.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.79%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -330
CLV vs close
+32.02 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TB @ TEX · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+108at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +102
CLV vs close
+0.94 pts
−1.00uSettled at +108 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.94 pts.
TB @ TEX · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+103at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
51.1%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
49.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -114
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
−1.00uSettled at +103 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
BOS @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.87total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-186at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.87
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.63 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.4%.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -209
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BOS @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-104at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
53.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.41%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+3.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at -104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.97 pts.
BOS @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+141at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
44.3%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.81%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.41uSettled at +141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
43.3%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.94%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -330
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
MIL @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+175at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row2
41.7%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+14.79%
Break-even
36.4%
Edge vs BE
+5.4 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +139
CLV vs close
+5.30 pts
−1.00uSettled at +175 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.30 pts.
MIL @ CIN · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.73hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.73
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
57.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.21%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -154
CLV vs close
+3.72 pts
+0.82uSettled at -122 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.72 pts.
LAA @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+16.17%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+7.2 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+29.24 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
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