59 tracked MLB positions Friday · Sep 4 · 16 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 75 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
WSH @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-107at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
53.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
51.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -102
CLV vs close
−0.23 pts
+0.93uSettled at -107 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.23 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -163
CLV vs close
+0.23 pts
+1.08uSettled at +110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.23 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
46.4%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.77%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +126
CLV vs close
+0.97 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.97 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.30%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +128
CLV vs close
+3.76 pts
+1.28uSettled at +128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.76 pts.
ATH @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.01
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
64.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.51 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.4%.
Model EV
+4.60%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -380
CLV vs close
+4.90 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.90 pts.
WSH @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
48.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+12.33%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+5.4 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYY @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
46.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.90%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.59 pts
+1.28uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.59 pts.
NYY @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to5.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+116at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.2 · no game history on this row6
48.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.74%
Break-even
46.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+3.70 pts
−1.00uSettled at +116 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.70 pts.
NYY @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+141at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
44.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.23%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+0.52 pts
+1.41uSettled at +141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.52 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
40.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.83%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+2.19 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.19 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.79
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.71 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.7%.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
+3.23 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.23 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.77total bases
68% range0.0to6.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.77
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–6.3 · no game history on this row7
55.3%
Our chance?
0.0–6.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.73 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -119
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
44.9%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−0.93 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.93 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.1to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–2.3 · no game history on this row3
60.3%
Our chance?
0.1–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
STL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.28total bases
68% range0.2to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-128at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.28
✗ actual 7
0model band 0.2–2.4 · no game history on this row8
58.1%
Our chance?
0.2–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.28 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
56.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -139
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ARI @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -103
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ARI @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
63.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -209
CLV vs close
+0.87 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.87 pts.
ARI @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.77total bases
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.77
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 37.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -310
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TOR @ KC · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+146at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row2
42.3%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
40.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TOR @ KC · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.15hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-163at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.15
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.0%.
Model EV
+4.91%
Break-even
62.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -380
CLV vs close
−1.19 pts
+0.61uSettled at -163 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −1.19 pts.
TOR @ KC · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.38total bases
68% range0.2to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-108at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.38
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.2–2.6 · no game history on this row3
53.9%
Our chance?
0.2–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.38 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -112
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -108 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
46.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.18%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.25uSettled at +128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.41total bases
68% range1.1to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.1–1.7 · no game history on this row2
60.5%
Our chance?
1.1–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.41 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.70uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.4to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-203at Novig
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.14
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–1.9 · no game history on this row2
69.4%
Our chance?
0.4–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.4%.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
67.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
−32.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at -203 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −32.75 pts.
TB @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+148at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
42.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.36%
Break-even
40.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
−0.32 pts
+1.48uSettled at +148 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.32 pts.
TB @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.64%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
MIN @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+156at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
40.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
39.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +161
CLV vs close
+1.26 pts
+1.56uSettled at +156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.26 pts.
MIN @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.07total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.07
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row4
63.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 63.8%.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
+2.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.75 pts.
MIN @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-124at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
57.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
55.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -152
CLV vs close
+3.66 pts
+0.81uSettled at -124 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +3.66 pts.
MIN @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
52.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.16%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -123
CLV vs close
+25.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIL @ CIN · 7:31PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.34hits
68% range0.9to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.9–1.7 · no game history on this row2
65.3%
Our chance?
0.9–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.3%.
Model EV
+4.80%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
+6.97 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +6.97 pts.
MIL @ CIN · 7:31PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-195at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.71
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row3
70.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.79 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.2%.
Model EV
+6.25%
Break-even
66.1%
Edge vs BE
+4.1 pts
Kalshi ask
77¢
Opened
1.5 -195
CLV vs close
−30.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at -195 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −30.39 pts.
MIL @ CIN · 7:31PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.49total bases
68% range1.4to1.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-124at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.49
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.4–1.5 · no game history on this row2
57.8%
Our chance?
1.4–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.49%
Break-even
55.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.98 pts
+0.81uSettled at -124 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.98 pts.
MIL @ CIN · 7:31PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
61.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.64%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+0.83 pts
−1.00uSettled at -143 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +0.83 pts.
MIL @ CIN · 7:31PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.01total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at betPARX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.01
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row3
65.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.5%.
Model EV
+5.15%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+3.25 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.25 pts.
MIL @ CIN · 7:31PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.72total bases
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.72
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.72 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.10%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ CLE · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at —
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row2
47.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+13.26%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+5.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.44 pts
−1.00uSettled at +138 · graded from the box score · CLV +3.44 pts.
DET @ CLE · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.21total bases
68% range0.4to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.21
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–2.1 · no game history on this row2
63.3%
Our chance?
0.4–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.43%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -175
CLV vs close
+1.54 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.54 pts.
DET @ CLE · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.40%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SF @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.27total bases
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.27
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
52.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.27 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.74%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.83 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.83 pts.
SF @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
46.9%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+3.33 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.33 pts.
SF @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.87%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -108
+1.00uSettled at +102 at betPARX · graded from the box score.
SF @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row2
40.6%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SF @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.48total bases
68% range1.4to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-126at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.4–1.6 · no game history on this row2
58.4%
Our chance?
1.4–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.48 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.70%
Break-even
55.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.75 pts
+0.78uSettled at -126 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.75 pts.
CHC @ MIA · 7:10PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−0.65 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ MIA · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to4.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.4 · no game history on this row5
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+28.49 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +28.49 pts.
CHC @ MIA · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.21hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.21
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
57.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.73%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
+0.82uSettled at -120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
CHC @ MIA · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
49.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.75%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+0.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.92 pts.
BOS @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-136at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.13%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+3.00 pts
+0.74uSettled at -136 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +3.00 pts.
BOS @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
−1.54 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.54 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.