43 tracked MLB positions Thursday · Sep 3 · 41 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 84 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
STL @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+148at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row1
45.5%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+12.94%
Break-even
40.3%
Edge vs BE
+5.2 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+4.12 pts
+1.48uSettled at +148 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +4.12 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.22hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.22
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
67.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.72 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.9%.
Model EV
+4.37%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -186 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
41.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
63.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.25%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -198
CLV vs close
+3.75 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.75 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to9.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+115at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–9.8 · no game history on this row11
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–9.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±9.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.52%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+1.57 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.57 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.65%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.2to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-121at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.6 · no game history on this row1
61.7%
Our chance?
0.2–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+12.75%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
+7.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -121
CLV vs close
+3.05 pts
−1.00uSettled at -121 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.05 pts.
ATH @ SEA · 9:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+19.09 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ SEA · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-162at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.14
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
64.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.3%.
Model EV
+4.01%
Break-even
61.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -162
CLV vs close
+1.80 pts
+0.60uSettled at -162 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.80 pts.
ATH @ SEA · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.15hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-141at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.15
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.65%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at -141 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.43 pts.
ATH @ SEA · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.77hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+114at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.77
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 62.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.63%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +106
CLV vs close
+1.58 pts
+1.14uSettled at +114 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.58 pts.
ATH @ SEA · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row2
40.8%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.07%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +156
CLV vs close
+0.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.78 pts.
ATH @ SEA · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.70total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-113at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.70
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
54.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
−1.36 pts
+0.88uSettled at -113 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.36 pts.
ATH @ SEA · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
46.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.14%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +101
CLV vs close
+6.05 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +6.05 pts.
ATH @ SEA · 9:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-157at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
63.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.96%
Break-even
61.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+14.52 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ SEA · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88total bases
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.88
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ TEX · 8:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.94total bases
68% range0.0to8.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–8.9 · no game history on this row10
47.8%
Our chance?
0.0–8.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the under side, inside a band of ±8.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.16%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+25.97 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +25.97 pts.
TB @ TEX · 8:05PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.43total bases
68% range1.2to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-146at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.43
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.2–1.7 · no game history on this row2
61.4%
Our chance?
1.2–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.43 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.51%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+0.97 pts
+0.67uSettled at -146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.97 pts.
TB @ TEX · 8:05PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
46.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.04%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
80¢
Opened
0.5 +109
CLV vs close
+6.47 pts
−1.00uSettled at +135 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +6.47 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+124at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
46.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
44.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+4.14 pts
+1.22uSettled at +124 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.14 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.00total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-142at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.00
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
60.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
58.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -137
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.69uSettled at -142 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.4%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.58%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+0.65 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIA @ KC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.76total bases
68% range0.9to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-146at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.76
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.9–2.7 · no game history on this row3
61.3%
Our chance?
0.9–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.76 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 38.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 61.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
−1.02 pts
+0.67uSettled at -146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.02 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-195at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
68.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.6%.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
66.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+0.51uSettled at -195 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.2to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.5 · no game history on this row2
69.0%
Our chance?
0.2–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -218
CLV vs close
+1.59 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.59 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.79total bases
68% range0.9to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-153at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.79
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.9–2.7 · no game history on this row3
62.7%
Our chance?
0.9–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.79 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 37.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 62.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.61%
Break-even
60.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
+2.76 pts
+0.65uSettled at -153 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.76 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.82total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.82
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row4
64.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.68 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ BAL · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-113at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
55.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.77%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
+0.44 pts
+0.88uSettled at -113 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.44 pts.
BOS @ BAL · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to5.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
52.9%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.84%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
−1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.22 pts.
BOS @ BAL · 7:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
64.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.12%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
−0.87 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.87 pts.
BOS @ BAL · 7:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at Bally Bet
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
66.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.4%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
−0.65 pts
+0.56uSettled at -180 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.65 pts.
BOS @ BAL · 7:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-141at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
60.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.14%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
−2.95 pts
+0.71uSettled at -141 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.95 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
62.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
−1.11 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.11 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.23hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-167at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.23
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
64.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
62.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
−1.01 pts
+0.60uSettled at -167 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.01 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
63.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
−1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at -155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.11 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.42hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.42
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
68.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.92 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
−0.68 pts
−1.00uSettled at -200 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.68 pts.
BOS @ BAL · 7:15PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+2.12 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIL @ CHC · 7:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-162at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.5%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.33%
Break-even
61.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -194
CLV vs close
−0.44 pts
−1.00uSettled at -162 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.44 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.1to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-168at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.4 · no game history on this row2
64.7%
Our chance?
0.1–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
62.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -168 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-144at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.01
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.51 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.02%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+5.01 pts
+0.68uSettled at -144 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.01 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
58.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.99%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -156
CLV vs close
+3.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.46 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-112at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
54.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.12 pts
−1.00uSettled at -112 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.12 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-109at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
54.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.54%
Break-even
52.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.90uSettled at -109 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.90hits
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-108at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.90
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row4
55.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.95%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+0.46 pts
+0.93uSettled at -108 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.46 pts.
BOS @ BAL · 7:15PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.1to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-162at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.4 · no game history on this row2
63.9%
Our chance?
0.1–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
61.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -182
CLV vs close
+3.20 pts
+0.62uSettled at -162 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +3.20 pts.
BOS @ BAL · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
44.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.45%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
−1.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.02 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row1
46.0%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.78%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+6.27 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +6.27 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
41.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 2:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.78hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.78
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
56.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.88%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
+0.41 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.41 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 2:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-111at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
54.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.60%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -127
CLV vs close
+3.34 pts
−1.00uSettled at -111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.34 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.