58 tracked MLB positions Wednesday · Sep 2 · 34 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 92 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.17hits
68% range0.0to9.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.17
0model band 0.0–9.6 · no game history on this row10
48.6%
Our chance?
0.0–9.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±9.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.92%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-153at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
60.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -146
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -153 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-107at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
56.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+9.17%
Break-even
51.7%
Edge vs BE
+4.7 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
+4.83 pts
+0.93uSettled at -107 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.83 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
67.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.0%.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+4.69 pts
−1.00uSettled at -182 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.69 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.2to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+101at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
0model band 0.2–0.8 · no game history on this row1
52.6%
Our chance?
0.2–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.83%
Break-even
49.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +112
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.14
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
68.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.8%.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -224
CLV vs close
+1.08 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.08 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
43.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
−2.45 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −2.45 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.78total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.78
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
43.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+142at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
42.9%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
41.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+1.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at +142 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.23 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+107at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.16%
Break-even
48.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
+0.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at +107 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.23 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.32hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.32
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
57.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.32 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.02%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -146
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.82%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
+2.80 pts
+1.11uSettled at +113 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.80 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+127at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
48.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+10.66%
Break-even
44.1%
Edge vs BE
+4.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +123
CLV vs close
+15.95 pts
+1.24uSettled at +127 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +15.95 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
42.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.76%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +142
CLV vs close
+0.34 pts
+1.45uSettled at +145 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.34 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
43.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.37%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +119
CLV vs close
+2.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.55 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-104at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
53.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.14%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -127
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.96uSettled at -104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+101at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
56.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+12.54%
Break-even
49.8%
Edge vs BE
+6.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -105
CLV vs close
+5.80 pts
−1.00uSettled at +101 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.80 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
59.8%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.07%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+2.78 pts
+0.76uSettled at -132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.78 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.9%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.36%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+2.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at +138 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.43 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
44.3%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.36%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−1.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at +138 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −1.03 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+107at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
49.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
48.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
−0.23 pts
+1.07uSettled at +107 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.23 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-133at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
59.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
57.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -158
CLV vs close
+3.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at -133 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.39 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
49.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.62%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +101
CLV vs close
+4.07 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.07 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
53.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
−1.22 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.22 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.93total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.93
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
64.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.57 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.19%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
−22.26 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −22.26 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row1
46.2%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.40%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+2.22 pts
+1.28uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.22 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.31hits
68% range0.8to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-172at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.31
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.8–1.8 · no game history on this row4
65.4%
Our chance?
0.8–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.4%.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
63.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
83¢
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
+2.28 pts
−1.00uSettled at -172 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.28 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.78hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.78
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
56.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.39%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -156
CLV vs close
+0.41 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.41 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
43.5%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.30%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.44 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.40total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
52.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.28%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+4.95 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.50%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−1.11 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.11 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+143at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
42.7%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
41.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+2.33 pts
+1.43uSettled at +143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.33 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.14total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.14
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
61.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.52%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-113at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
55.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.22%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -142
CLV vs close
+1.90 pts
−1.00uSettled at -113 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.90 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.49total bases
68% range1.5to1.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-144at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.49
✗ actual 4
0model band 1.5–1.5 · no game history on this row4
61.5%
Our chance?
1.5–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.14%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
+2.96 pts
−1.00uSettled at -144 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.96 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.31total bases
68% range0.9to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-174at DraftKings
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.31
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.9–1.8 · no game history on this row4
66.0%
Our chance?
0.9–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.0%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.01%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−21.84 pts
−1.00uSettled at -174 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −21.84 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-136at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
59.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -154
CLV vs close
+0.71 pts
+0.72uSettled at -136 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.71 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+114at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
48.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.85%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +112
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +114 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TOR @ CLE · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row2
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.24%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +127
CLV vs close
−1.54 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.54 pts.
NYM @ TB · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
57.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+1.89 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.89 pts.
SF @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.73total bases
68% range0.0to6.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.73
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row7
48.3%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.76%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+0.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.22 pts.
SF @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.31total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
52.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.86%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−2.38 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −2.38 pts.
SF @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84total bases
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.84
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 35.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.88%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
SF @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.89total bases
68% range0.0to5.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.89
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.6 · no game history on this row6
46.7%
Our chance?
0.0–5.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.10%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−0.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +123 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.98 pts.
SF @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
59.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.85%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
−1.00uSettled at -135 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
NYM @ TB · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row5
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
SF @ PIT · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.96total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.96
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
44.8%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.30%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
+1.89 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.89 pts.
SEA @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
52.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
−0.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at -105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.72 pts.
SEA @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.23total bases
68% range0.3to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-139at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.23
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–2.2 · no game history on this row2
60.9%
Our chance?
0.3–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.68%
Break-even
58.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -173
CLV vs close
+0.69 pts
−1.00uSettled at -139 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.69 pts.
SEA @ BOS · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
42.2%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+0.85 pts
+1.45uSettled at +145 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +0.85 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.