65 tracked MLB positions Tuesday · Sep 1 · 32 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 97 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.17hits
68% range0.0to6.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.17
0model band 0.0–6.7 · no game history on this row7
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–6.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.04%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+4.95 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.72%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−0.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.38 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.15total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-142at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.15
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
61.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.12%
Break-even
58.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+1.32 pts
+0.69uSettled at -142 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.32 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
45.1%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+1.36 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.36 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.86total bases
68% range0.0to9.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.86
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–9.3 · no game history on this row10
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–9.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.86 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.86%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
+0.25 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.25 pts.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
46.8%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.73%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -101
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
STL @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row2
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
PHI @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.50%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−0.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.23 pts.
PHI @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.01
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
62.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.51 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+5.52 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +5.52 pts.
PHI @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.42total bases
68% range1.2to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-175at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.42
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.2–1.6 · no game history on this row2
65.8%
Our chance?
1.2–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.42 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.8%.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
+1.28 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.28 pts.
PHI @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.74total bases
68% range0.8to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-132at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.74
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.8–2.7 · no game history on this row3
59.7%
Our chance?
0.8–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.74 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 40.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 59.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.94%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+4.49 pts
+0.76uSettled at -132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.49 pts.
PHI @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to5.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+107at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.16%
Break-even
48.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
+4.52 pts
+1.07uSettled at +107 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +4.52 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
67.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.2%.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -205
CLV vs close
+2.71 pts
+0.53uSettled at -186 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.71 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-138at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
60.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.77%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -152
CLV vs close
+1.03 pts
+0.71uSettled at -138 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.03 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+101at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
51.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
49.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+3.95 pts
+0.99uSettled at +101 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.95 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+118at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
47.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.18%
Break-even
45.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.63 pts
−1.00uSettled at +118 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.63 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+179at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
37.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
35.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+1.19 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
NYY @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
47.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+9.92%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
+3.69 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.69 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.13total bases
68% range0.0to7.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-102at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.13
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.9 · no game history on this row9
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–7.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -127
CLV vs close
+1.89 pts
+0.96uSettled at -102 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.89 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.43total bases
68% range0.6to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+102at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.43
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.6–2.3 · no game history on this row3
53.3%
Our chance?
0.6–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.43 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.73%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -112
CLV vs close
+3.55 pts
+1.02uSettled at +102 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.55 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.49total bases
68% range1.3to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-102at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.49
✗ actual 3
0model band 1.3–1.6 · no game history on this row3
52.8%
Our chance?
1.3–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.49 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.56%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
1.5 -112
CLV vs close
+1.89 pts
−1.00uSettled at -102 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.89 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.61total bases
68% range0.0to4.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+116at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
48.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.61 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.00%
Break-even
46.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
1.5 -104
CLV vs close
+2.01 pts
+1.14uSettled at +116 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.01 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.96
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
66.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.54 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.77%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
+0.25 pts
+0.54uSettled at -180 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.25 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
39.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
−0.70 pts
+1.65uSettled at +165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.70 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+142at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
44.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.65%
Break-even
41.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.12 pts
−1.00uSettled at +142 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.12 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.53total bases
68% range1.4to1.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.4–1.6 · no game history on this row2
62.1%
Our chance?
1.4–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.53 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 37.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 62.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+4.03 pts
+0.65uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.03 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
45.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+11.28%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+4.6 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +145
CLV vs close
−0.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at +145 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.49 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+103at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.24%
Break-even
49.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+3.12 pts
+1.01uSettled at +103 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.12 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.28hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.28
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
57.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.28 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.97 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.33%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
ATH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61total bases
68% range0.0to5.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.7 · no game history on this row6
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–5.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.63%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+4.47 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +4.47 pts.
ATH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.07hits
68% range0.0to4.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.07
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
57.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.57 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -126
CLV vs close
+1.38 pts
+0.82uSettled at -122 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +1.38 pts.
ATH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+146at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row2
43.6%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.31%
Break-even
40.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
65.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.7%.
Model EV
+4.41%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+3.02 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.02 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to6.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.1 · no game history on this row7
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–6.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.48%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.3to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+200at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–1.1 · no game history on this row1
34.6%
Our chance?
0.3–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 34.6%.
Model EV
+3.95%
Break-even
33.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
35¢
Opened
0.5 +190
CLV vs close
+2.13 pts
−1.00uSettled at +200 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.13 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.25total bases
68% range0.4to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.25
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–2.1 · no game history on this row2
61.0%
Our chance?
0.4–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.59%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -166
CLV vs close
+3.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.93 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.86total bases
68% range0.6to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-148at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.86
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.6–3.1 · no game history on this row3
61.6%
Our chance?
0.6–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.86 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 38.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 61.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+3.83 pts
−1.00uSettled at -148 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.83 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.14total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-135at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.14
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
59.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at -135 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.55 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.0%.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -182
CLV vs close
−0.70 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.70 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.89total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-190at ESPN BET
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.89
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
68.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.61 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 68.0%.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−22.41 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+141at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
43.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.94%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+2.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at +141 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.95 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.88%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.73total bases
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.73
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.59%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+0.63 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.08total bases
68% range0.0to18.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+105at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.08
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–18.3 · no game history on this row20
51.4%
Our chance?
0.0–18.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.08 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.58 to the under side, inside a band of ±16.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.43%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
1.5 -112
CLV vs close
+2.68 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.68 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+148at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
41.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.47%
Break-even
40.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +113
CLV vs close
+0.83 pts
−1.00uSettled at +148 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.83 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.2to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+141at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.9 · no game history on this row1
43.0%
Our chance?
0.2–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
−3.90 pts
−1.00uSettled at +141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −3.90 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.50total bases
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-129at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–2.7 · no game history on this row3
58.5%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 58.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
56.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -132
CLV vs close
+1.47 pts
+0.78uSettled at -129 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.47 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.47total bases
68% range0.6to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+104at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.47
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.6–2.3 · no game history on this row4
51.4%
Our chance?
0.6–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.47 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.96%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -108
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +104 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIA @ KC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.31total bases
68% range0.7to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.31
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.7–1.9 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.7–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.