56 tracked MLB positions Monday · Aug 31 · 29 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 85 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
PHI @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
43.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +112
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
PHI @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.07total bases
68% range0.0to5.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-121at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.07
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.4 · no game history on this row6
56.9%
Our chance?
0.0–5.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.07 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.57 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
−0.83 pts
+0.83uSettled at -121 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.83 pts.
PHI @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.21total bases
68% range0.3to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.21
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–2.1 · no game history on this row2
62.9%
Our chance?
0.3–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.85 pts
+0.65uSettled at -155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.85 pts.
PHI @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-172at ProphetX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.88
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
65.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.62 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.3%.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
63.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.57uSettled at -172 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PHI @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.22total bases
68% range0.0to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.22
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.7 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.22 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 72.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.76%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-166at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.94
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.44 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.0%.Risk: an exchange is asking 93¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+4.11%
Break-even
62.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
93¢
Opened
0.5 -192
CLV vs close
+3.35 pts
−1.00uSettled at -166 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.35 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+122at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.50%
Break-even
45.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+0.20 pts
−1.00uSettled at +122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.20 pts.
NYY @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.83total bases
68% range0.0to7.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.83
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–7.2 · no game history on this row8
47.9%
Our chance?
0.0–7.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
−1.00uSettled at +117 at ProphetX · graded from the box score.
NYY @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.18%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.58total bases
68% range1.1to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-116at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.58
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.1–2.1 · no game history on this row2
56.5%
Our chance?
1.1–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.58 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.11%
Break-even
53.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.82 pts
+0.86uSettled at -116 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.82 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.50total bases
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-101at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.3–2.7 · no game history on this row3
51.8%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
50.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
1.5 -117
CLV vs close
−1.47 pts
+0.99uSettled at -101 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.47 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.1to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.4 · no game history on this row2
64.2%
Our chance?
0.1–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.2%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.31%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -247
CLV vs close
+3.98 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.98 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-215at betPARX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.86
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
70.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.64 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
68.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -244
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
+0.47uSettled at -215 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.1to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.7 · no game history on this row2
69.3%
Our chance?
0.1–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.3%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.00%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
+0.49uSettled at -200 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.2to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
0model band 0.2–0.8 · no game history on this row1
45.9%
Our chance?
0.2–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+156at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
41.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.80%
Break-even
39.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+0.15 pts
+1.53uSettled at +156 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.15 pts.
BAL @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.57total bases
68% range1.3to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-134at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.3–1.8 · no game history on this row2
60.4%
Our chance?
1.3–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.57 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 60.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.42%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -161
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
+0.75uSettled at -134 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
47.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.65%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−1.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.98 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
54.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -132
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+133at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
44.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
42.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+2.13 pts
+1.33uSettled at +133 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.13 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+0.94 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.94 pts.
CWS @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.24hits
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.24
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
53.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.24 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.04%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.14
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.
Model EV
+3.51%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -164
CLV vs close
+3.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.00 pts.
ATH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.92total bases
68% range0.0to8.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.92
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–8.5 · no game history on this row9
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–8.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.64%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+4.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+6.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +6.93 pts.
ATH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
65.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.3%.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+3.48 pts
+0.58uSettled at -170 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.48 pts.
ATH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.50%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 -127
CLV vs close
−1.32 pts
+1.08uSettled at +110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.32 pts.
ATH @ TEX · 8:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row5
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.02uSettled at +102 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
43.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.97%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+7.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +7.17 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.25total bases
68% range0.3to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.25
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.3–2.2 · no game history on this row4
60.5%
Our chance?
0.3–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -155
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.93total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.93
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
64.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.57 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.86%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.21hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
68.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.64%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.54uSettled at -186 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-166at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
64.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.4%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
62.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -188
CLV vs close
−0.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at -166 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.43 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.98total bases
68% range0.0to3.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.98
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
43.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+23.85 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +23.85 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.6%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+0.54 pts
−1.00uSettled at +138 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.54 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
65.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.4%.
Model EV
+3.92%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -225
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.2to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+185at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–1.1 · no game history on this row1
36.7%
Our chance?
0.2–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 36.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.71%
Break-even
35.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
33¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+0.63 pts
+1.85uSettled at +185 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.63 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.87total bases
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.87
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
50.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.3%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 34.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.69%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
DET @ MIN · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
41.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.47%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+4.44 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.44 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.07total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at BetMGM
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.07
✗ actual 7
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row8
64.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.07 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.3%.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.65 pts
−1.00uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.65 pts.
MIL @ CHC · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.78total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.78
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row5
45.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+2.82 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.82 pts.
SEA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
45.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.97 pts.
SEA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
61.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.83%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -185
CLV vs close
+1.94 pts
+0.70uSettled at -143 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.94 pts.
SEA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
63.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.86%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -175
CLV vs close
+4.10 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.10 pts.
SEA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -204
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SEA @ BOS · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.13total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.13
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row5
58.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+0.37 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +0.37 pts.
MIA @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
49.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.58%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+4.76 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.76 pts.
MIA @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.54total bases
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
50.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+10.15%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
−5.45 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −5.45 pts.
MIA @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.08hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.08
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
66.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.2%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+8.57%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+5.2 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
+5.51 pts
+0.63uSettled at -156 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.51 pts.
MIA @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.16hits
68% range0.0to5.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.16
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.8 · no game history on this row6
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–5.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.16 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.84%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.49 pts.
MIA @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
40.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.94%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +164
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
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