57 tracked MLB positions Sunday · Aug 30 · 28 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 85 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
CIN @ CHC · 7:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-205at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
69.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.71%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
+0.48uSettled at -205 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
CIN @ CHC · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
−0.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at +102 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.72 pts.
CIN @ CHC · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-118at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
56.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.79%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -142
CLV vs close
+4.20 pts
+0.83uSettled at -118 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.20 pts.
CIN @ CHC · 7:21PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.15hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.15
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
67.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ CHC · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
2.02total bases
68% range0.0to5.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-117at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.02
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–5.7 · no game history on this row6
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–5.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.02 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+2.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at -117 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.60 pts.
CIN @ CHC · 7:21PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.29total bases
68% range0.5to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-144at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.29
✗ actual 6
0model band 0.5–2.0 · no game history on this row7
61.2%
Our chance?
0.5–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.29 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -175
CLV vs close
+2.52 pts
−1.00uSettled at -144 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.52 pts.
PHI @ LAA · 4:07PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to6.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–6.7 · no game history on this row7
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–6.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
−1.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.75 pts.
PHI @ LAA · 4:07PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-154at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.81%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+0.91 pts
+0.64uSettled at -154 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.91 pts.
BAL @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42total bases
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
46.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+12.46%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+5.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
BAL @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.70total bases
68% range0.3to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-117at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.70
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–3.1 · no game history on this row3
55.7%
Our chance?
0.3–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.70 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 55.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
1.5 -112
CLV vs close
+1.04 pts
−1.00uSettled at -117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.04 pts.
BAL @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.35total bases
68% range0.3to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.35
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.3–2.4 · no game history on this row3
55.7%
Our chance?
0.3–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.35 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.34%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -117
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BAL @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.87total bases
68% range0.0to7.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.87
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.5 · no game history on this row8
52.6%
Our chance?
0.0–7.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.87 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.20%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
1.5 -122
CLV vs close
−0.50 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.50 pts.
BAL @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
42.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 42.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.15%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +108
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
BAL @ ATH · 4:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
44.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.32uSettled at +132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ NYM · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
43.1%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
PIT @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
46.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.21uSettled at +123 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.36hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.36
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
55.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.02%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+0.23 pts
+0.89uSettled at -110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.23 pts.
PIT @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.5%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.28%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+5.28 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +5.28 pts.
PIT @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.99total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-139at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.99
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row4
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.51 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.16%
Break-even
58.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -174
CLV vs close
+3.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at -139 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.38 pts.
PIT @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
52.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.14%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+3.92 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
KC @ CLE · 2:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
46.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−0.58 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.58 pts.
TEX @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+127at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
44.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.40 pts
−1.00uSettled at +127 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.40 pts.
TEX @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
46.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+3.33 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.33 pts.
SD @ TB · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.24hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at BetRivers
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.24
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
69.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.74 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.6%.
Model EV
+4.34%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -280
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CWS @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
CWS @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-138at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
61.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.98%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+5.52 pts
−1.00uSettled at -138 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.52 pts.
TEX @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.74total bases
68% range0.0to6.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.74
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–6.0 · no game history on this row7
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–6.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ MIL · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
46.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.02%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CWS @ MIN · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+127at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
44.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.27uSettled at +127 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ CLE · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62total bases
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.48%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ CLE · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.41total bases
68% range1.0to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.41
✗ actual 5
0model band 1.0–1.8 · no game history on this row5
58.6%
Our chance?
1.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.41 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.50%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -143
CLV vs close
+4.44 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.44 pts.
LAD @ DET · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+143at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
44.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.45%
Break-even
41.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
+2.33 pts
−1.00uSettled at +143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.33 pts.
LAD @ DET · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+180at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
37.0%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
35.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +180
CLV vs close
+5.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at +180 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +5.95 pts.
LAD @ DET · 1:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+119at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
48.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.32%
Break-even
45.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +102
CLV vs close
+2.65 pts
+1.17uSettled at +119 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.65 pts.
LAD @ DET · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.58%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ DET · 1:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.39total bases
68% range0.9to1.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.39
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.9–1.9 · no game history on this row2
58.5%
Our chance?
0.9–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.39 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
SD @ TB · 1:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
46.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.95%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ TB · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
−1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.16 pts.
SD @ TB · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.27hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.27
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
68.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.2%.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -192
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -194 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ DET · 1:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.27total bases
68% range0.0to4.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.27
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.7 · no game history on this row5
52.1%
Our chance?
0.0–4.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.27 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.12%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
LAD @ DET · 1:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row1
39.7%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+0.60 pts
+1.60uSettled at +160 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.60 pts.
SEA @ TOR · 1:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.44hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.44
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.94 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.0%.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+1.32 pts
+0.58uSettled at -170 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.32 pts.
SEA @ TOR · 1:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.09hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.09
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
+4.21 pts
+0.61uSettled at -160 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.21 pts.
SEA @ TOR · 1:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.13total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-156at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.13
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
+2.57 pts
+0.63uSettled at -156 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.57 pts.
SEA @ TOR · 1:38PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.73total bases
68% range1.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at Novig
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.73
✗ actual 2
0model band 1.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
62.3%
Our chance?
1.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.73 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 37.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 62.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -185
CLV vs close
−15.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −15.56 pts.
SEA @ TOR · 1:38PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to8.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+114at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–8.6 · no game history on this row9
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–8.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+10.64%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+5.0 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +114
CLV vs close
+6.76 pts
−1.00uSettled at +114 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +6.76 pts.
BOS @ NYY · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row2
40.0%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 40.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
+3.21 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.21 pts.
BOS @ NYY · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row2
40.0%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.90%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +164
CLV vs close
−0.58 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.58 pts.
BOS @ NYY · 1:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
60.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+10.26%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+5.6 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -162
CLV vs close
+4.47 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +4.47 pts.
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