64 tracked MLB positions Saturday · Aug 29 · 22 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 86 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
PHI @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
59.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.79%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
−1.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.57 pts.
PHI @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.18hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.18
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
63.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.68 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.9%.
Model EV
+5.89%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+4.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.22 pts.
PHI @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.11total bases
68% range0.0to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.11
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
57.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+2.07 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +2.07 pts.
PHI @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
67.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.1%.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+0.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at -186 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.95 pts.
PHI @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.37%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+3.64 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.64 pts.
PHI @ LAA · 10:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.55total bases
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
50.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.69%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
BAL @ ATH · 10:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+1.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.72 pts.
BAL @ ATH · 10:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
38.5%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.95%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
35¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.70uSettled at +170 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BAL @ ATH · 10:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row1
43.9%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−0.54 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.54 pts.
ARI @ SF · 10:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
49.8%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.8%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 69.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.50%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +101
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score.
ARI @ SF · 10:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.91total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.91
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
56.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.20%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
+7.30 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +7.30 pts.
ARI @ SF · 10:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
41.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.00%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +135
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ARI @ SF · 10:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.20hits
68% range0.0to0.6line 0.5?
Solid lean to the under 0.5+106at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.6 · no game history on this row1
50.2%
Our chance?
0.0–0.6
68% range?
Solid lean to the under 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 74.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 -103
CLV vs close
−1.81 pts
+1.06uSettled at +106 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.81 pts.
TEX @ MIL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.74total bases
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.74
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
46.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.61%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+5.40 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TEX @ MIL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.84%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+2.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.27 pts.
TEX @ MIL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to5.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-106at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.1 · no game history on this row6
53.2%
Our chance?
0.0–5.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -106 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ NYY · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-154at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.99
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
60.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
+2.61 pts
+0.64uSettled at -154 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.61 pts.
BOS @ NYY · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
38.4%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +146
CLV vs close
+4.80 pts
−1.00uSettled at +170 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.80 pts.
BOS @ NYY · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
58.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.56%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+5.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -159
CLV vs close
+7.14 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +7.14 pts.
BOS @ NYY · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.09%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -101
CLV vs close
+2.70 pts
−1.00uSettled at +117 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.70 pts.
BOS @ NYY · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.1to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.9 · no game history on this row1
54.1%
Our chance?
0.1–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -132
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
+0.91uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
BOS @ NYY · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-123at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
57.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -132
CLV vs close
+2.83 pts
+0.80uSettled at -123 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.83 pts.
BOS @ NYY · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+8.40%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
+4.14 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.14 pts.
BOS @ NYY · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
57.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+4.28 pts
+0.78uSettled at -125 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.28 pts.
SD @ TB · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.24hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-195at Bally Bet
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.24
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
70.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.74 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.3%.
Model EV
+6.40%
Break-even
66.1%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
1.5 -250
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.51uSettled at -195 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ CLE · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.37hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.37
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
66.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.87 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.6%.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
+0.54uSettled at -182 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
KC @ CLE · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
47.1%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
−1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.01 pts.
KC @ CLE · 4:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.12hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-148at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.12
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -162
CLV vs close
+7.54 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
KC @ CLE · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
KC @ CLE · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.71hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-121at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.71
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
56.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.71 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+4.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at -121 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.27 pts.
SD @ TB · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+144at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
43.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.80%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +144
CLV vs close
−0.98 pts
+1.41uSettled at +144 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.98 pts.
SD @ TB · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.90total bases
68% range0.0to19.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.90
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–19.5 · no game history on this row21
49.1%
Our chance?
0.0–19.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the under side, inside a band of ±18.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ CLE · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.14hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.14
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
58.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.86%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.7 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SD @ TB · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
HOU @ NYM · 4:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.24%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.13 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
HOU @ NYM · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.31%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at +102 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.23 pts.
HOU @ NYM · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-113at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
55.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.09%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
+0.87 pts
+0.88uSettled at -113 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.87 pts.
HOU @ NYM · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.79total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.79
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
43.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.36%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
1.5 -230
CLV vs close
+3.44 pts
+1.35uSettled at +138 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.44 pts.
COL @ ATL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
44.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+5.52 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +5.52 pts.
COL @ ATL · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.2to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-148at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–2.2 · no game history on this row2
61.9%
Our chance?
0.2–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.69%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -154
CLV vs close
+2.59 pts
+0.66uSettled at -148 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.59 pts.
COL @ ATL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.2to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–2.2 · no game history on this row2
62.0%
Our chance?
0.2–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+4.29 pts
+0.65uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.29 pts.
COL @ ATL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
47.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.71%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +127
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
COL @ ATL · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
50.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 41.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.76%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
+2.27 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.27 pts.
COL @ ATL · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.72hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.72
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.72 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.22 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ ATL · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
45.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
+1.30uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score.
MIA @ WSH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.59total bases
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
48.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+3.05 pts
+1.11uSettled at +113 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.05 pts.
MIA @ WSH · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
39.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.74%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +144
CLV vs close
−1.37 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −1.37 pts.
ARI @ SF · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.10hits
68% range0.0to7.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.10
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.9 · no game history on this row9
48.0%
Our chance?
0.0–7.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.51%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+0.42 pts
+1.20uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.42 pts.
ARI @ SF · 4:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.23total bases
68% range0.4to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.23
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.4–2.0 · no game history on this row4
62.9%
Our chance?
0.4–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
−19.80 pts
−1.00uSettled at -155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −19.80 pts.
SEA @ TOR · 3:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+129at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
45.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.38%
Break-even
43.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at +129 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.50 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.