30 tracked MLB positions Thursday · Aug 27 · 28 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 58 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
ARI @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.22total bases
68% range0.2to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-135at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.22
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–2.2 · no game history on this row2
60.9%
Our chance?
0.2–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.94%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
1.5 -135
CLV vs close
−17.45 pts
+0.74uSettled at -135 at Hard Rock Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −17.45 pts.
ARI @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
65.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.81%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+0.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at -174 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.78 pts.
ARI @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+185at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
37.7%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.47%
Break-even
35.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
39¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
−0.37 pts
−1.00uSettled at +185 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.37 pts.
ARI @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.1to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+163at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.3 · no game history on this row1
39.4%
Our chance?
0.1–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
38.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +138
CLV vs close
−0.29 pts
+1.60uSettled at +163 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.29 pts.
ARI @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
42.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.88%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−0.49 pts
+1.45uSettled at +145 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.49 pts.
ARI @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.20hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+127at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.20
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
44.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ARI @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.26hits
68% range0.0to11.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.26
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–11.7 · no game history on this row13
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–11.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.26 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±11.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−4.14 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −4.14 pts.
ARI @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.12hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+138at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.12
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
44.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.81%
Break-even
42.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +138
CLV vs close
+3.65 pts
+1.38uSettled at +138 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.65 pts.
ARI @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+145at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
45.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+10.72%
Break-even
40.8%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +145
CLV vs close
+0.85 pts
−1.00uSettled at +145 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.85 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.25total bases
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
59.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+3.52 pts
−1.00uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.52 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.25%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.12hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.12
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.5%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -191
CLV vs close
+1.37 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +1.37 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.15hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-159at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.15
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.65 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.67%
Break-even
61.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -189
CLV vs close
−1.71 pts
+0.63uSettled at -159 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV −1.71 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.00
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
62.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.50 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -188
CLV vs close
+1.95 pts
−1.00uSettled at -152 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +1.95 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.21total bases
68% range0.4to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-166at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.21
0model band 0.4–2.0 · no game history on this row2
64.5%
Our chance?
0.4–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.5%.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
62.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -188
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.2to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–0.7 · no game history on this row1
46.9%
Our chance?
0.2–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.50%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +126
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-125at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
57.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -158
CLV vs close
−0.80 pts
−1.00uSettled at -125 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV −0.80 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to5.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-104at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.2 · no game history on this row6
52.7%
Our chance?
0.0–5.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+2.51 pts
−1.00uSettled at -104 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +2.51 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-132at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
60.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.88%
Break-even
56.9%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -171
CLV vs close
+8.62 pts
−1.00uSettled at -132 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +8.62 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.12total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.12
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
56.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.12 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.07%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -113
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -113 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.15total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-147at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.15
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
61.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.15 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
59.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at -147 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
MIL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-102at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
53.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.87%
Break-even
50.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -109
CLV vs close
+1.66 pts
−1.00uSettled at -102 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.66 pts.
MIL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
55.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.46%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+1.84 pts
+0.85uSettled at -117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.84 pts.
MIL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55total bases
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
60.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 60.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.75total bases
68% range0.0to5.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.75
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.0 · no game history on this row5
47.7%
Our chance?
0.0–5.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.87%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+0.63 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.63 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.31hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.31
✓ actual 5
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row5
66.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.81 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.8%.
Model EV
+3.86%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -205
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+0.54uSettled at -180 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+113at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.31%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+0.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +113 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.67 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+143at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
42.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.83%
Break-even
41.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at +143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.1to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–0.9 · no game history on this row1
49.1%
Our chance?
0.1–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.52%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.11 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.11 pts.
HOU @ NYY · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+3.17 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.17 pts.
BAL @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -132
CLV vs close
−2.75 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −2.75 pts.
BAL @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.26hits
68% range0.0to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.26
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–0.8 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.26 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 68.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.01%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−2.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −2.98 pts.
BAL @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.20
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
66.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.70 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.1%.
Model EV
+5.03%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -186
CLV vs close
+4.25 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.25 pts.
BAL @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.50hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-205at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.50
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
69.5%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 1.00 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.5%.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
1.5 -240
CLV vs close
+2.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at -205 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.02 pts.
BAL @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.50total bases
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.94%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.84 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
BAL @ STL · 2:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.62%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
−0.56 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.56 pts.
COL @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.47total bases
68% range1.2to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-108at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.47
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.2–1.7 · no game history on this row2
54.4%
Our chance?
1.2–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.47 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 92¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.
Model EV
+4.73%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
92¢
Opened
1.5 -117
CLV vs close
−1.67 pts
+0.91uSettled at -108 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.67 pts.
COL @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+143at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
42.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.96%
Break-even
41.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.43uSettled at +143 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.5to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.5–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.2%
Our chance?
0.5–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.29total bases
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-121at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.29
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
56.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.29 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -130
CLV vs close
+1.39 pts
−1.00uSettled at -121 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +1.39 pts.
COL @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
67.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.54uSettled at -186 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.41total bases
68% range1.1to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-152at ProphetX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.41
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.1–1.7 · no game history on this row2
62.4%
Our chance?
1.1–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.41 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+3.71 pts
+0.64uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.71 pts.
COL @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+154at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
42.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.83%
Break-even
39.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.51uSettled at +154 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+144at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+11.09%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.5 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+5.75 pts
+1.41uSettled at +144 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.75 pts.
COL @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.78hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.78
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
63.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.76%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -162
CLV vs close
+0.89 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.89 pts.
COL @ WSH · 1:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+195at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row1
39.4%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+16.08%
Break-even
33.9%
Edge vs BE
+5.5 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
−1.64 pts
−1.00uSettled at +195 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.64 pts.