51 tracked MLB positions Wednesday · Aug 26 · 27 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 78 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
MIN @ ATH · 9:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row2
41.3%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+0.65 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +0.65 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-180at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
66.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.5%.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -182
CLV vs close
+0.50 pts
+0.54uSettled at -180 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.50 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:06PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.17total bases
68% range0.1to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+108at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.17
0model band 0.1–2.3 · no game history on this row3
49.8%
Our chance?
0.1–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 62.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 -108
CLV vs close
+7.28 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIN @ ATH · 9:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.24total bases
68% range0.0to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.24
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
55.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.02%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+1.87 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.87 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.4to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+195at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.5 · no game history on this row2
35.2%
Our chance?
0.4–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 35.2%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 64.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 35.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
33.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +187
CLV vs close
+0.58 pts
−1.00uSettled at +195 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.58 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row2
42.5%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.20%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +132
CLV vs close
+1.32 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.32 pts.
BAL @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
46.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.47%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BAL @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64total bases
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row3
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.33%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−1.11 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.11 pts.
BAL @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+176at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row2
38.2%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.51%
Break-even
36.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +164
CLV vs close
+0.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at +176 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.81 pts.
BAL @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.08hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-198at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.08
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
68.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.58 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.7%.
Model EV
+3.35%
Break-even
66.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -205
CLV vs close
+2.79 pts
+0.49uSettled at -198 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.79 pts.
BAL @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+104at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
51.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.18%
Break-even
49.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
−0.24 pts
+1.04uSettled at +104 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.24 pts.
BAL @ STL · 7:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.34hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+11.74%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+5.5 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +115
CLV vs close
+1.80 pts
+1.15uSettled at +115 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.80 pts.
TEX @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row2
45.6%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.92%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +101
CLV vs close
+0.58 pts
−1.00uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.58 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
54.1%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−0.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.46 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
67.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.6%.
Model EV
+4.70%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
+3.71 pts
−1.00uSettled at -182 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.71 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-165at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
66.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.1%.
Model EV
+6.14%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
LAD @ ATL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54total bases
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 7
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row8
56.4%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.60%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
MIL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.63total bases
68% range0.8to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-117at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.63
0model band 0.8–2.5 · no game history on this row3
56.1%
Our chance?
0.8–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.63 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.01%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -133
CLV vs close
+4.07 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIL @ NYM · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-148at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
61.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.44%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+5.23 pts
+0.66uSettled at -148 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.23 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.41hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.41
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.41 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+1.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.49 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+165at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row2
39.8%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.44%
Break-even
37.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
41¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.63 pts
−1.00uSettled at +165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.63 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.99hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-210at ProphetX
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.99
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
70.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.51 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 70.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.48%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
74¢
Opened
0.5 -275
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.47uSettled at -210 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.12hits
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-148at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.12
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row3
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.62 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
−1.00uSettled at -148 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
50.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.24%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
68.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.3%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.58%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
+1.76 pts
−1.00uSettled at -194 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.76 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-192at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
68.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.0%.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
65.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -225
CLV vs close
+1.99 pts
−1.00uSettled at -192 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.99 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.40hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-215at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.40
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
70.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.90 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.4%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
68.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1.5 -245
CLV vs close
+0.50 pts
+0.46uSettled at -215 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.50 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
43.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.09total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-157at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.09
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
63.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.27%
Break-even
61.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.03 pts
+0.64uSettled at -157 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.03 pts.
KC @ TOR · 7:08PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
2.34total bases
68% range0.0to7.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-122at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.2 · no game history on this row8
56.8%
Our chance?
0.0–7.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.84 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.39%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+4.72 pts
+0.82uSettled at -122 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +4.72 pts.
COL @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row2
44.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+0.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at +135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.93 pts.
COL @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55total bases
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
COL @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.16total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-127at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.16
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row4
57.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.16 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -122
CLV vs close
+0.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at -127 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.38 pts.
BOS @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
67.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.1%.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -260
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -186 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BOS @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-147at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
61.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.62%
Break-even
59.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -158
CLV vs close
+0.80 pts
+0.68uSettled at -147 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.80 pts.
BOS @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-107at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
54.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 54.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.64%
Break-even
51.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.92uSettled at -107 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to8.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+101at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–8.7 · no game history on this row9
51.5%
Our chance?
0.0–8.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
49.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
−0.25 pts
+0.99uSettled at +101 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.25 pts.
PIT @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.62%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +101
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
PIT @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
44.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -197
CLV vs close
+3.98 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.98 pts.
PIT @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
60.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -154
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.70uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-141at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
61.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.03%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
−0.17 pts
+0.71uSettled at -141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.17 pts.
PIT @ SD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.86total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-158at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.86
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
63.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.64 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
61.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+2.40 pts
−1.00uSettled at -158 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.40 pts.
PHI @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to9.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+101at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–9.0 · no game history on this row10
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–9.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.24%
Break-even
49.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +101
CLV vs close
−0.25 pts
+0.99uSettled at +101 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.25 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.18hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.18
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
65.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.68 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.3%.
Model EV
+7.14%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+4.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
−0.62 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.62 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.01hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-172at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.01
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
65.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.51 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.3%.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
63.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -260
CLV vs close
+1.80 pts
−1.00uSettled at -172 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.80 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42total bases
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+114at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.09%
Break-even
46.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +114
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.14uSettled at +114 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 4:08PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.54total bases
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
52.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.88%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +102
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.02uSettled at +102 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.