67 tracked MLB positions Tuesday · Aug 25 · 37 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 104 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
CIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
44.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 93¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
93¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+1.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at +135 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +1.50 pts.
CIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.19hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.19
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
46.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.75%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+1.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.43 pts.
CIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.24total bases
68% range0.5to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.24
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.5–2.0 · no game history on this row2
63.8%
Our chance?
0.5–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.24 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 63.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.68%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
1.5 -190
CLV vs close
+2.75 pts
+0.61uSettled at -160 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.75 pts.
CIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.01total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-180at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.01
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
66.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.01 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 66.5%.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
64.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
1.5 -185
CLV vs close
−15.27 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.30total bases
68% range0.8to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.30
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.8–1.8 · no game history on this row2
64.6%
Our chance?
0.8–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.30 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.6%.
Model EV
+3.77%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
1.5 -200
CLV vs close
−18.02 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −18.02 pts.
CIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.65total bases
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.80%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.19hits
68% range0.0to3.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+122at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.19
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.8 · no game history on this row4
46.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.19 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.43%
Break-even
45.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +138
CLV vs close
+0.41 pts
+1.22uSettled at +122 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.41 pts.
CIN @ SF · 9:46PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.23hits
68% range0.0to9.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+102at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.23
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–9.8 · no game history on this row11
51.1%
Our chance?
0.0–9.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±9.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 93¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
93¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+0.50 pts
+1.02uSettled at +102 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.50 pts.
PIT @ SD · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
57.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.93%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+2.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.72 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-176at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
66.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.4%.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
63.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
+4.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at -176 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.49 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
65.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.1%.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+3.02 pts
−1.00uSettled at -170 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.02 pts.
PIT @ SD · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.33%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PHI @ SEA · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.26hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-163at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.26
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.26 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.76 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.6%.
Model EV
+4.20%
Break-even
62.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
+3.06 pts
+0.61uSettled at -163 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.06 pts.
PIT @ SD · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
47.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.65%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.62 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.62 pts.
PIT @ SD · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
56.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.38%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -132
CLV vs close
+2.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at -117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.98 pts.
PIT @ SD · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.21hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-210at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
70.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 70.0%.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
67.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Opened
0.5 -245
CLV vs close
−38.76 pts
+0.47uSettled at -210 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −38.76 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.56total bases
68% range1.3to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-141at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.56
✗ actual 3
0model band 1.3–1.8 · no game history on this row3
60.6%
Our chance?
1.3–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.56 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 60.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ SD · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.86hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-136at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.86
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
59.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.86 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.36 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.60%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -166
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.72uSettled at -136 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-203at Novig
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
69.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.3%.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
67.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
1.5 -250
CLV vs close
+0.95 pts
+0.49uSettled at -203 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.95 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+178at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
37.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
36.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
33¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+0.53 pts
+1.74uSettled at +178 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.53 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 94¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.46%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
94¢
Opened
0.5 -129
CLV vs close
+2.68 pts
+1.05uSettled at +105 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.68 pts.
PHI @ SEA · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.55total bases
68% range1.4to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-144at Novig
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.55
✓ actual 1
0model band 1.4–1.7 · no game history on this row2
61.2%
Our chance?
1.4–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.55 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 38.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 61.2%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.77%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1 -165
CLV vs close
+2.52 pts
+0.69uSettled at -144 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.52 pts.
PHI @ SEA · 9:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.78total bases
68% range0.0to6.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.78
0model band 0.0–6.4 · no game history on this row7
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–6.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.00%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+9.68 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIN @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
47.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.60%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.01 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.27total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.27
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
55.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.27 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.19%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
+0.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.43 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.22total bases
68% range0.0to11.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+111at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.22
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–11.8 · no game history on this row13
48.9%
Our chance?
0.0–11.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.22 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±10.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 -110
CLV vs close
+1.63 pts
+1.11uSettled at +111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.63 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-182at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
66.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.8%.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -188
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -182 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
65.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.1%.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -182
CLV vs close
+3.70 pts
−1.00uSettled at -170 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.70 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.21hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-190at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.21
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
67.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.71 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -184
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.53uSettled at -190 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.88hits
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-108at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.88
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
53.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.88 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.38 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.77%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -145
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at -108 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
PIT @ SD · 9:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.80hits
68% range0.0to8.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+115at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.80
0model band 0.0–8.7 · no game history on this row9
48.5%
Our chance?
0.0–8.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.80 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.30 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.25%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -105
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
MIN @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.65total bases
68% range0.1to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.2 · no game history on this row1
40.1%
Our chance?
0.1–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.26%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.60uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.74total bases
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.74
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
46.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−0.97 pts
−1.00uSettled at +125 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.97 pts.
PHI @ SEA · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
59.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 59.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.83%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -134
CLV vs close
−0.18 pts
+0.73uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.18 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+132at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
45.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.49%
Break-even
43.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+4.07 pts
+1.32uSettled at +132 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.07 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.37hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-113at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.37
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
54.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.37 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.56%
Break-even
53.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -108
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.23hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-177at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.23
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
66.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
63.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -200
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.14hits
68% range0.0to4.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-122at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.14
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.1 · no game history on this row5
58.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.14 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.40%
Break-even
55.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.49 pts
+0.82uSettled at -122 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.49 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+128at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
45.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.31%
Break-even
43.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
+1.59 pts
+1.28uSettled at +128 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.59 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.42%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+3.50 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.50 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to4.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-112at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–4.3 · no game history on this row5
54.9%
Our chance?
0.0–4.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.88%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -138
CLV vs close
+0.22 pts
+0.89uSettled at -112 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +0.22 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67total bases
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.74%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+3.92 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.92 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 9:38PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.79hits
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-141at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.79
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
61.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.72%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+1.49 pts
+0.71uSettled at -141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.49 pts.
BAL @ STL · 7:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.38total bases
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row2
49.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.82%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.55 pts.
BAL @ STL · 7:45PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
46.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.80%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -117
CLV vs close
+0.60 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.60 pts.
BAL @ STL · 7:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-188at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
67.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.7%.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
65.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -188
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -188 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
BAL @ STL · 7:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+148at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
41.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
40.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.34 pts
−1.00uSettled at +148 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.34 pts.
BAL @ STL · 7:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95total bases
68% range0.0to3.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+146at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.95
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row5
42.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
40.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
−1.00uSettled at +146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
BAL @ STL · 7:45PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+136at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
43.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.49%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.33uSettled at +136 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row2
43.0%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.