45 tracked MLB positions Monday · Aug 24 · 22 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 67 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
CIN @ SF · 9:45PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
52.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.92%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
CIN @ SF · 9:45PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.29hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-107at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.29
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
54.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.29 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.03%
Break-even
51.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -121
CLV vs close
+2.01 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CIN @ SF · 9:45PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to5.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+113at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–5.6 · no game history on this row6
48.5%
Our chance?
0.0–5.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
+3.05 pts
−1.00uSettled at +113 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.05 pts.
CIN @ SF · 9:45PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.50hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+113at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.50
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
48.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.50 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
−0.44 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CIN @ SF · 9:45PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
41.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ SF · 9:45PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.99total bases
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.99
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
42.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.99 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+9.90%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Opened
1 +120
CLV vs close
+12.52 pts
+1.60uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +12.52 pts.
CIN @ SF · 9:45PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.08hits
68% range0.0to7.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.08
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.9 · no game history on this row9
52.1%
Our chance?
0.0–7.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.08 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.47%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+4.5 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
CIN @ SF · 9:45PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.17hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.17
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
58.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.59%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.09total bases
68% range0.0to7.6line 2.5?
Slight lean to the under 2.5-128at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 2.5
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 1.09
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–7.6 · no game history on this row8
58.6%
Our chance?
0.0–7.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 2.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 total bases against a line of 2.5 — 1.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.40%
Break-even
56.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
1.5 +108
CLV vs close
+1.31 pts
−1.00uSettled at -128 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.31 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.4to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+172at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.5 · no game history on this row1
38.6%
Our chance?
0.4–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 38.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.10%
Break-even
36.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +148
CLV vs close
+3.24 pts
+1.69uSettled at +172 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.24 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-196at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
68.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.8%.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
66.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
0.5 -216
CLV vs close
+5.21 pts
−1.00uSettled at -196 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.21 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.69hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+175at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
39.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.69 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.22%
Break-even
36.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+2.85 pts
+1.75uSettled at +175 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.85 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
44.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−2.55 pts
+1.35uSettled at +135 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −2.55 pts.
PHI @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-148at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
62.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.93%
Break-even
59.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+4.86 pts
−1.00uSettled at -148 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.86 pts.
PHI @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
57.1%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 57.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.63%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -142
CLV vs close
+1.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.01 pts.
PHI @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-129at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
58.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.26%
Break-even
56.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.68 pts
−1.00uSettled at -129 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.68 pts.
PHI @ SEA · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+108at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
50.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.69%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+1.92 pts
+1.08uSettled at +108 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.92 pts.
MIN @ ATH · 9:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52total bases
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row4
45.5%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.63%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ SD · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.93hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.93
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
62.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.43 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.30%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+3.35 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.35 pts.
PIT @ SD · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.5 · no game history on this row1
41.3%
Our chance?
0.4–0.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.3%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+6.95 pts
+1.50uSettled at +150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +6.95 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.40hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.40
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row3
45.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.40 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.49%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +156
CLV vs close
−1.46 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −1.46 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
62.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.52%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−0.64 pts
−1.00uSettled at -152 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.64 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
39.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +144
CLV vs close
+2.19 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +2.19 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.85hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-135at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.85
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
60.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.52%
Break-even
57.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+2.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at -135 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.55 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
68.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+2.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at -194 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.27 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-178at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
66.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.5%.
Model EV
+3.92%
Break-even
64.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
+1.96 pts
−1.00uSettled at -178 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.96 pts.
CHC @ ARI · 9:40PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to13.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
0model band 0.0–13.6 · no game history on this row15
51.5%
Our chance?
0.0–13.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±12.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+8.19%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+4.30 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-158at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
64.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.7%.
Model EV
+5.58%
Break-even
61.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.4 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
−7.32 pts
+0.62uSettled at -158 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −7.32 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.23hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-198at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.23
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
68.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.23 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.73 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.6%.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
66.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -240
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.05hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.05
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
68.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.4%.
Model EV
+5.13%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
72¢
Opened
0.5 -266
CLV vs close
+2.71 pts
+0.54uSettled at -186 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.71 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.87hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.87
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
61.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.37 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
−1.15 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −1.15 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to4.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+105at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.6 · no game history on this row5
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–4.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.70%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -135
CLV vs close
+2.20 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.20 pts.
CLE @ LAA · 9:39PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row1
44.9%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
52.2%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.40%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 -108
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
TEX @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
43.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.28%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
+1.81 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.81 pts.
TEX @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.67hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+123at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.67
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
46.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.67 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.01%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+0.82 pts
−1.00uSettled at +123 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.82 pts.
TEX @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
56.4%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
−1.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at -120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.49 pts.
TEX @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.54hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.54
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
50.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.54 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TEX @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.1to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-144at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–2.3 · no game history on this row3
60.9%
Our chance?
0.1–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+1.92 pts
+0.68uSettled at -144 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.92 pts.
TEX @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.76total bases
68% range0.5to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-129at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.76
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.5–3.0 · no game history on this row5
58.1%
Our chance?
0.5–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.76 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 41.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 58.1%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.17%
Break-even
56.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -146
CLV vs close
+3.18 pts
−1.00uSettled at -129 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.18 pts.
COL @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.21total bases
68% range0.1to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-134at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.21
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–2.3 · no game history on this row3
60.5%
Our chance?
0.1–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.21 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.60%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.08 pts
+0.75uSettled at -134 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.08 pts.
COL @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.56hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.56
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.56 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+4.99 pts
+1.08uSettled at +110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.99 pts.
COL @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+155at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.5%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+10.95%
Break-even
39.2%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+1.94 pts
+1.55uSettled at +155 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.94 pts.
COL @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-170at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.0%.
Model EV
+3.28%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -230
CLV vs close
+1.07 pts
+0.59uSettled at -170 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.07 pts.
COL @ WSH · 6:46PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row3
45.2%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +121
CLV vs close
+1.36 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.36 pts.
TB @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.31hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+122at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.31
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.31 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions · an exchange is asking 95¢ — the crowd disagrees with us hard.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.25%
Break-even
45.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
95¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
−1.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at +122 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.57 pts.
TB @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.66hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+144at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.66
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
42.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.66 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.21%
Break-even
41.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+1.39 pts
+1.41uSettled at +144 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.39 pts.
TB @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+168at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
40.2%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.68%
Break-even
37.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+4.35 pts
+1.65uSettled at +168 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.35 pts.
TB @ DET · 6:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.33total bases
68% range0.9to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.33
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.9–1.8 · no game history on this row3
64.8%
Our chance?
0.9–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.33 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.8%.
Model EV
+5.32%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+3.37 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.37 pts.
BOS @ MIA · 6:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51total bases
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+105at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
48.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
−1.00uSettled at +105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.