63 tracked MLB positions Sunday · Aug 23 · 39 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 102 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
ATL @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+108at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
50.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.00%
Break-even
48.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 -148
CLV vs close
+0.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at +108 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +0.23 pts.
ATL @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.45hits
68% range0.1to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.45
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–0.8 · no game history on this row1
55.4%
Our chance?
0.1–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.45 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
ATL @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row2
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 -106
CLV vs close
−0.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.67 pts.
ATL @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.84hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-140at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.84
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
62.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.84 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.66%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+7.18 pts
−1.00uSettled at -140 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +7.18 pts.
ATL @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.09hits
68% range0.0to2.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-200at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.09
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
68.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.09 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.59 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.33%
Break-even
66.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -225
CLV vs close
+3.92 pts
+0.50uSettled at -200 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.92 pts.
ATL @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-205at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.13
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
69.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 69.7%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+4.22 pts
+0.48uSettled at -205 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.22 pts.
ATL @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
62.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -185
CLV vs close
+2.55 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.55 pts.
ATL @ MIL · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.20total bases
68% range0.3to2.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at BetMGM
line 1 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.20
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–2.1 · no game history on this row2
63.3%
Our chance?
0.3–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.20 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.17%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1 -197
CLV vs close
+0.75 pts
−1.00uSettled at -155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.75 pts.
CIN @ ARI · 4:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.92hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.92
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.
Model EV
+3.54%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+0.44 pts
+0.63uSettled at -160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.44 pts.
CIN @ ARI · 4:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.65total bases
68% range0.0to1.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
0model band 0.0–1.8 · no game history on this row2
44.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
1.5 -260
CLV vs close
+8.90 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CIN @ ARI · 4:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+190at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row2
36.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 36.0%.
Model EV
+4.49%
Break-even
34.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
38¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+1.23 pts
−1.00uSettled at +190 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.23 pts.
CIN @ ARI · 4:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.70hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.70
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
58.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -150
CLV vs close
+0.74 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.74 pts.
CIN @ ARI · 4:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.77total bases
68% range0.0to13.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.77
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–13.6 · no game history on this row15
49.2%
Our chance?
0.0–13.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±12.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-138at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.98
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row4
60.3%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.52 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.91%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
+2.80 pts
−1.00uSettled at -138 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.80 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+117at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
47.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
46.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +117 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-199at Novig
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.97
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
69.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.53 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.6%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.57%
Break-even
66.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -245
CLV vs close
+2.68 pts
−1.00uSettled at -199 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.68 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.96hits
68% range0.0to16.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5+110at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.96
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–16.6 · no game history on this row18
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–16.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.96 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.46 to the over side, inside a band of ±15.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.46%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+3.36 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +3.36 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.67total bases
68% range0.8to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-125at Dabble
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.67
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.8–2.6 · no game history on this row3
57.5%
Our chance?
0.8–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.67 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 57.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.57%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+0.58 pts
+0.80uSettled at -125 at Dabble · graded from the box score · CLV +0.58 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-162at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
64.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.0%.
Model EV
+3.55%
Break-even
61.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+3.69 pts
−1.00uSettled at -162 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.69 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
2.05total bases
68% range0.6to3.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 2.05
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.6–3.5 · no game history on this row4
49.5%
Our chance?
0.6–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 2.05 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.55 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 35.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
1.5 -125
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
65.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.9%.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -220
CLV vs close
+3.05 pts
+0.57uSettled at -174 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.05 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.74total bases
68% range0.0to4.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.74
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.9 · no game history on this row5
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.62%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.89hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-117at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.89
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
56.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.89 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.39 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.86%
Break-even
53.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+1.64 pts
+0.85uSettled at -117 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.64 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.78total bases
68% range0.0to5.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-103at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.78
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–5.5 · no game history on this row6
52.4%
Our chance?
0.0–5.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.78 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.23%
Break-even
50.7%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -103
CLV vs close
+2.75 pts
+0.97uSettled at -103 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.75 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.79total bases
68% range0.0to4.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.79
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–4.0 · no game history on this row4
53.6%
Our chance?
0.0–4.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 53.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.14%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 4:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.17hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.17
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.5%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.51%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
−0.73 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −0.73 pts.
CLE @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.34total bases
68% range0.0to3.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.34
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
64.6%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 1.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.6%.
Model EV
+3.69%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -180
CLV vs close
+4.18 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SF @ BOS · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.93total bases
68% range0.0to2.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-182at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.93
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
67.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.93 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.57 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 67.5%.
Model EV
+4.54%
Break-even
64.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
1.5 -210
CLV vs close
−1.99 pts
−1.00uSettled at -182 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −1.99 pts.
CLE @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.11total bases
68% range0.0to6.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+123at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.11
0model band 0.0–6.8 · no game history on this row7
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–6.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.39%
Break-even
44.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
1.5 +111
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.19total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.19
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
57.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.97%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+4.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -141
CLV vs close
+9.47 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
SF @ BOS · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.13total bases
68% range0.0to2.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.13
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
60.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.95%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Opened
1.5 -160
+0.75uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score.
CLE @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.00hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-155at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.00
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
63.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.00 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.50 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.17%
Break-even
60.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -195
CLV vs close
+2.18 pts
−1.00uSettled at -155 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +2.18 pts.
SF @ BOS · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.11hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-153at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.11
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
63.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.11 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.61 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.16%
Break-even
60.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+0.16 pts
+0.65uSettled at -153 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.16 pts.
SF @ BOS · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.34total bases
68% range0.8to1.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.34
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.8–1.8 · no game history on this row2
62.3%
Our chance?
0.8–1.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.34 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.88%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -179
CLV vs close
+1.83 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.83 pts.
SF @ BOS · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.87total bases
68% range0.0to3.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-123at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.87
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
57.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.87 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.37 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 42.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 57.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.98%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -145
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.81uSettled at -123 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SF @ BOS · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+136at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row1
45.4%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+7.12%
Break-even
42.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
45¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.29 pts
+1.36uSettled at +136 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV +3.29 pts.
CLE @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+170at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
38.3%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 38.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
37.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +146
CLV vs close
+1.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at +170 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.72 pts.
CLE @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
62.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -195
CLV vs close
+4.91 pts
−1.00uSettled at -150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +4.91 pts.
SF @ BOS · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.57hits
68% range0.0to1.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.57
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.5 · no game history on this row2
47.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.57 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+17.47%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+7.0 pts
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+8.78 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +8.78 pts.
SF @ BOS · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.05total bases
68% range0.0to2.3line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at BetMGM
line 0.5 → 1.5
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.05
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.3 · no game history on this row3
64.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.05 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.45 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.3%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SF @ BOS · 3:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.48total bases
68% range0.3to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.3–0.7 · no game history on this row5
45.7%
Our chance?
0.3–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.11%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+4.14 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.14 pts.
CLE @ COL · 3:11PM ET
Measured, not bet⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.4to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+186at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
0model band 0.4–0.8 · no game history on this row1
36.1%
Our chance?
0.4–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 36.1%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.22%
Break-even
35.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +180
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
LAA @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at Fanatics Sportsbook
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
49.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.06%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.36 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at Fanatics Sportsbook · graded from the box score · CLV +3.36 pts.
LAA @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.4to0.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.7 · no game history on this row1
39.7%
Our chance?
0.4–0.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.19%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+4.09 pts
+1.60uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.09 pts.
LAA @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to3.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.3 · no game history on this row4
47.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.34%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.36total bases
68% range1.0to1.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.36
✓ actual 0
0model band 1.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
65.0%
Our chance?
1.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.36 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.0%.
Model EV
+4.35%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
89¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
+0.42 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.42 pts.
LAA @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.70total bases
68% range0.0to4.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.70
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–4.2 · no game history on this row5
52.3%
Our chance?
0.0–4.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.70 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 52.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.75%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+4.6 pts
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
LAA @ TEX · 2:36PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row2
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.48%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+2.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.16 pts.
ATH @ HOU · 2:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
44.0%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +130
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
ATH @ HOU · 2:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+111at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.07%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +111
CLV vs close
−0.88 pts
−1.00uSettled at +111 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV −0.88 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.