64 tracked MLB positions Saturday · Aug 22 · 33 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 97 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
MIN @ SD · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.19total bases
68% range0.0to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-121at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.19
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
57.3%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.19 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.69%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
1.5 -137
CLV vs close
+1.77 pts
+0.81uSettled at -121 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.77 pts.
MIN @ SD · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.2to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.2–0.8 · no game history on this row1
45.9%
Our chance?
0.2–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.36%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+1.43 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.43 pts.
MIN @ SD · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
60.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.71%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.74 pts
−1.00uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.74 pts.
MIN @ SD · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.02hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-138at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.02
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
61.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.52 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.24%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Opened
0.5 -180
+0.71uSettled at -138 at ProphetX · graded from the box score.
MIN @ SD · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.82hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-134at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.82
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
60.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.82 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.32 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.17%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -115
CLV vs close
+5.97 pts
+0.75uSettled at -134 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.97 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.57total bases
68% range0.0to3.2line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.57
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.2 · no game history on this row4
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.57 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.55 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.61total bases
68% range0.3to2.9line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.61
✗ actual 5
0model band 0.3–2.9 · no game history on this row5
50.0%
Our chance?
0.3–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.61 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 46.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.96%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.84 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.84 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.50total bases
68% range0.3to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.50
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–2.7 · no game history on this row3
64.4%
Our chance?
0.3–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.50 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 64.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 64.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.40%
Break-even
62.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
1.5 -165
CLV vs close
−16.81 pts
+0.61uSettled at -165 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −16.81 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.29total bases
68% range0.0to3.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-105at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.29
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.7 · no game history on this row4
53.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.29 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.30%
Break-even
51.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
1.5 -115
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
+0.95uSettled at -105 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.64total bases
68% range0.8to2.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.64
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.8–2.5 · no game history on this row3
56.5%
Our chance?
0.8–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.64 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.65%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.0 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
1.5 -135
CLV vs close
+7.30 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +7.30 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.87total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-150at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.87
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
63.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.87 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.63 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.08%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Kalshi ask
89¢
Opened
1.5 -150
CLV vs close
+2.26 pts
+0.67uSettled at -150 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.26 pts.
CIN @ ARI · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
47.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+5.34%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+4.55 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.55 pts.
CIN @ ARI · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.43hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+106at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.43
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
50.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.43 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.96%
Break-even
48.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+1.46 pts
+1.04uSettled at +106 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.46 pts.
CIN @ ARI · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.63hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+125at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.63
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
45.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.63 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
44.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.4 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+1.22 pts
+1.25uSettled at +125 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.22 pts.
CIN @ ARI · 8:10PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.2to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+194at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.2–1.2 · no game history on this row4
35.1%
Our chance?
0.2–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 35.1%.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
34.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Kalshi ask
76¢
Opened
0.5 +180
CLV vs close
+1.70 pts
−1.00uSettled at +194 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.70 pts.
CIN @ ARI · 8:10PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+183at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row2
37.1%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 37.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+5.08%
Break-even
35.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
31¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
−1.44 pts
−1.00uSettled at +183 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −1.44 pts.
DET @ KC · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.52hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.52
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
41.8%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.52 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.40%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+0.32 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.32 pts.
DET @ KC · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.36hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-199at Novig
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.36
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
68.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.36 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.86 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.8%.
Model EV
+3.34%
Break-even
66.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -240
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.50uSettled at -199 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
SF @ BOS · 7:16PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.29hits
68% range0.0to1.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.29
0model band 0.0–1.9 · no game history on this row2
44.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.29 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.35%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SEA · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.25hits
68% range0.0to3.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-141at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.25
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.6 · no game history on this row4
62.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.75 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.57%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+1.49 pts
+0.71uSettled at -141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.49 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.18hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-156at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.18
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
65.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.18 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.68 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.2%.
Model EV
+6.95%
Break-even
60.9%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+3.35 pts
+0.64uSettled at -156 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.35 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
47.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.80%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
+5.76 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +5.76 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-141at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
61.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.24%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+0.51 pts
+0.71uSettled at -141 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +0.51 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.97hits
68% range0.0to3.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-127at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.97
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.1 · no game history on this row3
58.7%
Our chance?
0.0–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.97 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.47 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.94%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -170
CLV vs close
+2.39 pts
+0.79uSettled at -127 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.39 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.65hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+135at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.65
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
44.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.65 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
42.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
42¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
+1.69 pts
−1.00uSettled at +135 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.69 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.06hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-144at Novig
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.06
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
62.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.06 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.56 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.44%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+3.8 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -210
CLV vs close
+2.52 pts
+0.69uSettled at -144 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +2.52 pts.
SF @ BOS · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.79total bases
68% range0.5to3.1line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-130at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.79
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.5–3.1 · no game history on this row3
58.8%
Our chance?
0.5–3.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.79 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 41.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 58.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.10%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -154
CLV vs close
+4.26 pts
+0.77uSettled at -130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.26 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.73hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-114at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.73
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
55.1%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.53%
Break-even
53.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -168
CLV vs close
+1.27 pts
−1.00uSettled at -114 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +1.27 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.85total bases
68% range0.0to11.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+115at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.85
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–11.2 · no game history on this row12
48.6%
Our chance?
0.0–11.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.85 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±10.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.60%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Opened
0.5 -104
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at +115 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
58.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.20%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
+3.79 pts
+0.83uSettled at -120 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +3.79 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-130at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
58.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.29%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -130 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 7:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.25hits
68% range0.0to7.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.25
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.0 · no game history on this row8
51.5%
Our chance?
0.0–7.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.25 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+8.09%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.9 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+9.83 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +9.83 pts.
DET @ KC · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.61hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 44.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.80%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.89 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.89 pts.
DET @ KC · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.64hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.64
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
44.0%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.64 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.60%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +140
CLV vs close
−1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.67 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.53hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.53
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
50.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.53 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.31%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 -118
CLV vs close
+3.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.60 pts.
NYM @ CWS · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.1to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at Novig
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.0 · no game history on this row1
45.8%
Our chance?
0.1–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.39%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.03 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +3.03 pts.
NYM @ CWS · 7:15PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-157at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 63.7%.
Model EV
+4.34%
Break-even
61.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -172
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.64uSettled at -157 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATH @ HOU · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.48hits
68% range0.0to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+112at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.48
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.1 · no game history on this row1
48.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.48 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.41%
Break-even
47.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +105
CLV vs close
−0.66 pts
+1.12uSettled at +112 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.66 pts.
ATH @ HOU · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
64.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 64.2%.
Model EV
+4.34%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Opened
0.5 -160
CLV vs close
−0.91 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.91 pts.
ATH @ HOU · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.59hits
68% range0.0to2.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.59
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.5 · no game history on this row3
51.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.59 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.09 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.70%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+2.38 pts
−1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.38 pts.
ATH @ HOU · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
45.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.73%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
0.5 +122
CLV vs close
−0.93 pts
−1.00uSettled at +130 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.93 pts.
ATH @ HOU · 7:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.91total bases
68% range0.0to2.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-170at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.91
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
65.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.59 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 65.0%.
Model EV
+3.25%
Break-even
63.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
1.5 -210
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -170 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATH @ HOU · 7:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to2.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.6 · no game history on this row3
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+8.38%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Opened
0.5 +104
CLV vs close
+5.21 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.21 pts.
NYM @ CWS · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.17hits
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.17
✓ actual 3
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
66.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.17 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.67 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 66.0%.
Model EV
+3.99%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
68¢
Opened
0.5 -174
CLV vs close
+5.25 pts
+0.56uSettled at -174 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +5.25 pts.
NYM @ CWS · 7:10PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-136at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
61.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.88%
Break-even
57.6%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -162
CLV vs close
+3.31 pts
+0.72uSettled at -136 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.31 pts.
TB @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.42total bases
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
TB @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.91hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-152at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.91
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
62.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.91 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.41 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.18%
Break-even
60.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -176
CLV vs close
+4.22 pts
+0.66uSettled at -152 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +4.22 pts.
TB @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-103at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
53.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.50%
Break-even
50.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Opened
0.5 -125
CLV vs close
+4.22 pts
−1.00uSettled at -103 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +4.22 pts.
TB @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.75hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-118at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.75
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
56.2%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.75 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.25 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.79%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
58¢
Opened
0.5 -148
CLV vs close
+1.43 pts
−1.00uSettled at -118 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV +1.43 pts.
TB @ BAL · 7:06PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.30hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-104at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.30
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
52.9%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.30 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.20 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.80%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -122
CLV vs close
+4.58 pts
+0.96uSettled at -104 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.58 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.