57 tracked MLB positions Friday · Aug 21 · 30 more leans shown, measured but never bet · 87 settled and still on the board
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
CHC @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.42hits
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+120at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.42
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
47.3%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.42 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.3%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.02%
Break-even
45.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+1.72 pts
−1.00uSettled at +120 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.72 pts.
CHC @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.80%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -126
CLV vs close
+2.15 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.15 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-110at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
54.4%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
0.5 -112
CLV vs close
+1.54 pts
−1.00uSettled at -110 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +1.54 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.61total bases
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-120at ESPN BET
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.61
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
56.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.61 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 43.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.69%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
1.5 -325
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CHC @ SEA · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.90total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+156at ProphetX
line 1 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.90
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row3
41.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.90 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.40 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.47%
Break-even
39.1%
Edge vs BE
+2.5 pts
Opened
1 +156
CLV vs close
+4.42 pts
+1.56uSettled at +156 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.42 pts.
PIT @ LAD · 10:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.79total bases
68% range0.0to7.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.79
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–7.4 · no game history on this row8
51.7%
Our chance?
0.0–7.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.79 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.29 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.50%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CIN @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.33hits
68% range0.0to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.33
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–0.9 · no game history on this row1
49.4%
Our chance?
0.0–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.33 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.17 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+3.82%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
47¢
Opened
0.5 +117
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
CIN @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.3to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
0model band 0.3–0.9 · no game history on this row1
39.8%
Our chance?
0.3–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 39.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.45%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Opened
0.5 +160
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CIN @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.74hits
68% range0.0to2.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-121at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.74
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.2 · no game history on this row2
56.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.74 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.24 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.18%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
+1.7 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
0.5 -130
CLV vs close
+4.10 pts
−1.00uSettled at -121 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.10 pts.
CIN @ ARI · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.39hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.39
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
50.8%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.39 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.11 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.60%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.1 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+1.40 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +1.40 pts.
MIN @ SD · 9:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.95hits
68% range0.0to3.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-118at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.95
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.9 · no game history on this row4
56.0%
Our chance?
0.0–3.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.95 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.45 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.42%
Break-even
54.1%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 -165
CLV vs close
+0.83 pts
−1.00uSettled at -118 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.83 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.24hits
68% range0.0to9.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.24
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–9.2 · no game history on this row10
51.2%
Our chance?
0.0–9.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.24 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±8.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.44%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+4.07 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +4.07 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.29total bases
68% range0.0to5.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+100at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.29
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–5.4 · no game history on this row6
52.0%
Our chance?
0.0–5.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.29 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.21 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.0%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+4.08%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
51¢
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
+0.98 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.98 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.66total bases
68% range0.0to5.6line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+102at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.66
✗ actual 3
0model band 0.0–5.6 · no game history on this row6
51.6%
Our chance?
0.0–5.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.66 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±4.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 48.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.23%
Break-even
49.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Opened
1.5 +102
CLV vs close
+3.98 pts
−1.00uSettled at +102 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.98 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.62hits
68% range0.1to1.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at betPARX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.62
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.1–1.1 · no game history on this row1
40.8%
Our chance?
0.1–1.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.62 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.21%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Opened
0.5 +140
−1.00uSettled at +160 at betPARX · graded from the box score.
CLE @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.98hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-194at ProphetX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.98
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
68.4%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.98 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.4%.
Model EV
+3.63%
Break-even
66.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
73¢
Opened
1.5 -235
CLV vs close
+4.60 pts
−1.00uSettled at -194 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.60 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.12total bases
68% range0.0to11.4line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+113at Novig
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.12
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–11.4 · no game history on this row12
48.5%
Our chance?
0.0–11.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.12 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.38 to the under side, inside a band of ±10.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.5%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.37%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
1.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.60 pts
+1.13uSettled at +113 at Novig · graded from the box score · CLV +1.60 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked⊘ Void · did not play
Projection?
1.08total bases
68% range0.0to3.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-123at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.08
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
58.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.08 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.42 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.55%
Break-even
55.2%
Edge vs BE
+3.6 pts
Opened
1.5 -123
CLV vs close
+8.87 pts
0.00uDid not play. Voided, no stake risked, and kept on the record as a void — not deleted.
CLE @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.02total bases
68% range0.0to4.5line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-115at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.02
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–4.5 · no game history on this row5
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.02 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.48 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.69%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
1.5 -112
CLV vs close
+4.49 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.49 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
1.53total bases
68% range0.3to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5+107at betPARX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.53
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.3–2.8 · no game history on this row3
49.9%
Our chance?
0.3–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.53 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.38%
Break-even
48.3%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
49¢
Opened
1.5 -108
CLV vs close
−0.69 pts
−1.00uSettled at +107 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV −0.69 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.73total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-146at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.73
✗ actual 6
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row7
64.5%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.77 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 64.5%.
Model EV
+8.66%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
+5.1 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
1.5 -146
CLV vs close
+2.91 pts
−1.00uSettled at -146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.91 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.77total bases
68% range0.0to2.8line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-160at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.77
✗ actual 4
0model band 0.0–2.8 · no game history on this row4
63.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.73 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 63.8%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.64%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.2 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
1.5 -160
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.81hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-160at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.81
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
63.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.81 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.20%
Break-even
61.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -221
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
−1.00uSettled at -160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
CLE @ COL · 8:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.31total bases
68% range0.6to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-140at BetMGM
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.31
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.6–2.0 · no game history on this row2
60.6%
Our chance?
0.6–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.31 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.87%
Break-even
58.3%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
59¢
Opened
1.5 -140
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.71uSettled at -140 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
LAA @ TEX · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row1
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 47.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.10%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
−2.16 pts
+1.10uSettled at +110 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −2.16 pts.
LAA @ TEX · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.51hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.51
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
49.7%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.51 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.37%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
50¢
Opened
0.5 +110
CLV vs close
+3.12 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.12 pts.
LAA @ TEX · 8:16PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to2.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+100at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.9 · no game history on this row3
51.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
62¢
Opened
0.5 -108
CLV vs close
+2.15 pts
+1.00uSettled at +100 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.15 pts.
LAA @ TEX · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.58hits
68% range0.0to1.3line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.58
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.3 · no game history on this row2
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.3
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.58 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.08 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 45.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.14%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+1.16 pts
−1.00uSettled at +110 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.16 pts.
LAA @ TEX · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.1to0.9line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-106at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.1–0.9 · no game history on this row2
54.1%
Our chance?
0.1–0.9
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.06%
Break-even
51.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -110
CLV vs close
+4.10 pts
−1.00uSettled at -106 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +4.10 pts.
LAA @ TEX · 8:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.73total bases
68% range0.0to1.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+110at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.73
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.6 · no game history on this row2
49.6%
Our chance?
0.0–1.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.73 total bases against a line of 0.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.6%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 39.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.6% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.16%
Break-even
47.6%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Opened
0.5 +120
CLV vs close
+22.97 pts
+1.08uSettled at +110 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +22.97 pts.
ATH @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.94hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-205at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.94
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
69.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a some swing one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.94 hits against a line of 1.5 — 0.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.8%.
Model EV
+3.89%
Break-even
67.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
69¢
Opened
1.5 -243
CLV vs close
+2.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at -205 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.48 pts.
ATH @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.83hits
68% range0.0to2.1line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-141at Bally Bet
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.83
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.1 · no game history on this row2
60.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.1
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.83 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.33 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.66%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Opened
0.5 -162
CLV vs close
−0.35 pts
−1.00uSettled at -141 at Bally Bet · graded from the box score · CLV −0.35 pts.
ATH @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.68hits
68% range0.2to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+192at DraftKings
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.68
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.2 · no game history on this row1
36.1%
Our chance?
0.2–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.68 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 36.1%.
Model EV
+5.32%
Break-even
34.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.8 pts
Kalshi ask
30¢
Opened
0.5 +170
CLV vs close
−0.35 pts
−1.00uSettled at +192 at DraftKings · graded from the box score · CLV −0.35 pts.
ATH @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.10hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-175at betPARX
line 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.10
✓ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
67.9%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.10 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.9%.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+6.67%
Break-even
63.6%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
1.5 -220
CLV vs close
0.00 pts
+0.57uSettled at -175 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV 0.00 pts.
ATH @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.92total bases
68% range0.0to2.7line 1.5?
Slight lean to the under 1.5-146at ProphetX
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.92
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–2.7 · no game history on this row3
62.7%
Our chance?
0.0–2.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 1.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.92 total bases against a line of 1.5 — 0.58 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.61%
Break-even
59.3%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Opened
1.5 -170
CLV vs close
+3.89 pts
−1.00uSettled at -146 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +3.89 pts.
DET @ KC · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.60hits
68% range0.2to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.60
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.2–1.0 · no game history on this row1
40.4%
Our chance?
0.2–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.60 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 40.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.14%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Opened
0.5 +150
CLV vs close
−0.73 pts
−1.00uSettled at +160 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV −0.73 pts.
DET @ KC · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.04hits
68% range0.0to2.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-174at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.04
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–2.4 · no game history on this row3
65.6%
Our chance?
0.0–2.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.04 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.54 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 65.6%.
Model EV
+3.32%
Break-even
63.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
66¢
Opened
0.5 -197
CLV vs close
+2.01 pts
−1.00uSettled at -174 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.01 pts.
DET @ KC · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.47hits
68% range0.3to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+160at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.47
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.3–0.6 · no game history on this row1
41.8%
Our chance?
0.3–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.47 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.03 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 41.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 58.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+8.65%
Break-even
38.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Kalshi ask
36¢
Opened
0.5 +160
CLV vs close
+5.98 pts
+1.60uSettled at +160 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +5.98 pts.
DET @ KC · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.55hits
68% range0.3to0.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+150at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.55
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.3–0.8 · no game history on this row1
42.4%
Our chance?
0.3–0.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.55 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 42.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+6.05%
Break-even
40.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
44¢
Opened
0.5 +149
CLV vs close
+1.67 pts
−1.00uSettled at +150 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +1.67 pts.
DET @ KC · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
1.44hits
68% range0.0to3.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-196at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.44
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–3.4 · no game history on this row4
68.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.94 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 68.8%.
Model EV
+3.93%
Break-even
66.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -200
CLV vs close
+2.53 pts
−1.00uSettled at -196 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +2.53 pts.
ATH @ HOU · 8:11PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.44hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+130at BetMGM
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.44
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row1
45.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.44 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 45.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.31%
Break-even
43.5%
Edge vs BE
+1.9 pts
Kalshi ask
43¢
Opened
0.5 +130
CLV vs close
+0.97 pts
+1.30uSettled at +130 at BetMGM · graded from the box score · CLV +0.97 pts.
NYM @ CWS · 8:01PM ET
Measured, not bet✓ Won
Projection?
1.13hits
68% range0.0to3.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-159at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.13
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.0 · no game history on this row3
63.4%
Our chance?
0.0–3.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.13 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.63 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 63.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.24%
Break-even
61.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
67¢
Opened
0.5 -190
CLV vs close
+0.87 pts
+0.63uSettled at -159 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.87 pts.
NYM @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.38hits
68% range0.0to1.2line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-115at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.38
✗ actual 1
0model band 0.0–1.2 · no game history on this row1
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–1.2
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.38 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.12 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.78%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.0 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -120
CLV vs close
−1.57 pts
−1.00uSettled at -115 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV −1.57 pts.
NYM @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.49hits
68% range0.4to0.6line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.49
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.4–0.6 · no game history on this row1
43.7%
Our chance?
0.4–0.6
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.49 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 43.7%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+4.98%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
37¢
Opened
0.5 +125
CLV vs close
+2.00 pts
+1.40uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +2.00 pts.
NYM @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✗ Lost
Projection?
0.46hits
68% range0.0to1.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5-103at ProphetX
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.46
✗ actual 2
0model band 0.0–1.0 · no game history on this row2
53.1%
Our chance?
0.0–1.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.04 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.1%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.73%
Break-even
50.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
46¢
Opened
0.5 -132
CLV vs close
+0.48 pts
−1.00uSettled at -103 at ProphetX · graded from the box score · CLV +0.48 pts.
NYM @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.03hits
68% range0.0to4.8line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-115at betPARX
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.03
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–4.8 · no game history on this row5
55.5%
Our chance?
0.0–4.8
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.03 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.53 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 55.5%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+3.84%
Break-even
53.5%
Edge vs BE
+2.1 pts
Kalshi ask
60¢
Opened
0.5 -140
CLV vs close
+6.51 pts
+0.87uSettled at -115 at betPARX · graded from the box score · CLV +6.51 pts.
NYM @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.77hits
68% range0.0to2.0line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-121at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.77
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–2.0 · no game history on this row2
58.8%
Our chance?
0.0–2.0
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.77 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.27 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.8%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.40%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
+4.0 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+3.41 pts
+0.83uSettled at -121 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +3.41 pts.
NYM @ CWS · 7:41PM ET
Measured, not bet✗ Lost
Projection?
0.76hits
68% range0.0to1.7line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-143at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.76
✗ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.7 · no game history on this row2
61.2%
Our chance?
0.0–1.7
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.76 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 61.2%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Measured, not bet. This lean is logged at play = 0 and graded for measurement only — it is not in StatIQ’s record and not in any ROI. Paper-betting it below is your own tracking, not ours.
Model EV
+3.98%
Break-even
58.8%
Edge vs BE
+2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Opened
0.5 -180
CLV vs close
+2.24 pts
−1.00uSettled at -143 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +2.24 pts.
TB @ BAL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
0.35hits
68% range0.0to1.4line 0.5?
Slight lean to the under 0.5+140at ESPN BET
LINE 0.5
← under pays
proj 0.35
✓ actual 0
0model band 0.0–1.4 · no game history on this row2
44.4%
Our chance?
0.0–1.4
68% range?
Slight lean to the under 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 0.35 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.15 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 44.4%.Risk: the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.56%
Break-even
41.7%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Opened
0.5 +100
CLV vs close
+3.38 pts
+1.37uSettled at +140 at ESPN BET · graded from the box score · CLV +3.38 pts.
TB @ BAL · 7:16PM ET
Tracked✓ Won
Projection?
1.46hits
68% range0.0to3.5line 0.5?
Slight lean to the over 0.5-186at BetRivers
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 1.46
✓ actual 1
0model band 0.0–3.5 · no game history on this row4
67.8%
Our chance?
0.0–3.5
68% range?
Slight lean to the over 0.5. It is a swingy one — the projection points this way, but results still bounce around, so size it accordingly.We project 1.46 hits against a line of 0.5 — 0.96 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the over at 67.8%.
Model EV
+4.27%
Break-even
65.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.8 pts
Kalshi ask
70¢
Opened
0.5 -250
CLV vs close
+2.71 pts
+0.54uSettled at -186 at BetRivers · graded from the box score · CLV +2.71 pts.
Showing the first 50. Nothing is removed; settled picks sort last and stay on the board.